$1.5 billion can bring Putin’s war to an end
Even a single announcement can cause a real upheaval.
I believe April 2024 marked the first time in the 235-year history of the U.S. House of Representatives that the House formally requested the administration to ensure the delivery of a specific type of weapon to another country.
The 118th Congress issued a clear and assertive directive: Provide ATACMS missiles to Ukraine.
The victory plan presented by Ukraine to western partners has one key element embedded in it: Provide us with a greater number of ATACMS missiles
Early ATACMS variants, such as the Block I, cost around $850,000 per missile, while the newer variants, like the M57 and M57A1, are priced at approximately $2 million each.
We can average the cost at $1.5 million.
Delivering 1,000 ATACMS missiles will amount to $1.5 billion for the United States, but it will inflict significant damage on Putin’s army and ultimately cost him the war. The impact will not take long to manifest; it will be quick and decisive.
The United States began delivering ATACMS missiles in small batches starting in February 2024. They provided around 20 missiles last year, but deliveries have increased this year. While the exact number of missiles delivered remains unclear, it is evident that Ukraine does not possess hundreds of them. If they did, the results would already be apparent.
The Russians have no effective defense against ATACMS missiles. On April 17 of this year, Ukraine decimated Russia’s S-400 and other air defense assets at Dzhankoy airbase and the airfield in Gvardeyskoye, Crimea. This marked the first time Ukraine successfully targeted a Russian airfield located about 165 km from the front lines using ATACMS missiles.
Since then, Ukraine has regularly destroyed every type of Russian air defense system, missile launcher, and radar employed by the Russian army using ATACMS missiles. From the S-400 and S-300 to Pantsir and Iskander missile launchers, you can name any major Russian weapon stationed in occupied Ukraine, and ATACMS has neutralized it.
The Russian army has no effective defense against ATACMS missiles. The results of ATACMS usage over the past six months serve as proof of this.
The only protection the Russians have is the limited number of ATACMS missiles provided by the United States. A small group within the Biden administration seems to do everything in their power to protect the Russian army from defeat in the war they started. This group was instrumental in prompting Congress to issue a clear directive to the administration to deliver ATACMS missiles to Ukraine.
At the start of the war, the Russian army was estimated to have around 56 S-400 systems. Assuming there are six launchers per system, they likely possess around 400 launchers. Adding a few more for the S-300 systems brings the total to approximately 500 launchers. If the United States delivers about 200 ATACMS missiles (cluster variant) that deploy submunitions over a wide area, Ukraine could potentially destroy all Russian air defense assets in the country.
Adding another 200 missiles to eliminate Russian radar systems surveilling the war zone would leave Russian ground forces and airpower effectively defenseless and blind in occupied territories.
Delivering 1,000 ATACMS missiles is certainly achievable. Recently, the U.S. National Security team, led by Mr. Jake Sullivan, has put forth a theory that suggests the United States does not have enough missiles for its own defense needs. If this is indeed the case, it raises a critical question: why didn’t Mr. Sullivan, in his role as national security advisor, advocate for increased production two years ago? Proactively understanding and addressing the needs of the commander-in-chief is fundamental to his responsibilities.
It is not accurate to say that the United States does not have enough ATACMS missiles for its own use. Since President Biden decided to fully utilize the aid granted by Congress in April, the administration has access to more than $8 billion. The United States can send 1,000 missiles from its stockpile to Ukraine while simultaneously ordering the manufacturer to produce 1,000 missiles of the latest variant to replenish the stockpile. This way, Ukraine receives older weapons, the U.S. Army acquires new ones, and manufacturers can increase capacity and profits.
Everyone benefits — except Mr. Putin and his allies.
In fact, why not go even further? If President Biden were to meet with reporters at the White House and announce that he has ordered his team to deliver 1,000 ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, there’s a strong chance Putin would recognize the writing on the wall.
Just 1,000 missiles, costing $1.5 billion, could bring an end to the war. Numerous times in the past six months, congressional members from both sides of the aisle have stepped up to steer the American response to Putin’s aggression in the right direction. I hope they do it one more time; they are the only ones who can get this done, and it can be accomplished.