Member-only story
2024 Presidential Race in Dead Heat: Biden Starts to Pull Higher
Two weeks earlier than expected
I thought it wouldn’t happen until April 2024, but reality arrived a few weeks early. Four polls — The Economist, YouGov, Morning Consult, and Florida Atlantic University — showed Biden moving from a tie to a three-point lead over Donald Trump.
One reason I didn’t anticipate the polls shifting until April was my belief that Nikki Haley wouldn’t drop out of the GOP’s Presidential nomination race. However, she did drop out, likely due to major donors not seeing a viable path for her to secure the nomination. They may have ceased funding her campaign. Her withdrawal left the contest between President Biden and Donald Trump.
Markets appreciate clarity, and so do voters. The polls are beginning to reflect this reality.
The shift in favor of Biden is even more noticeable in swing states. Biden’s numbers against Trump have sharply moved in the President’s favor.
