An oil depot a week, keeps the Kremlin down and away
Are Ukrainians planning something that we don’t know about?
Earlier today, a small group of Ukrainian drones targeted the Atlas oil depot in Rostov Oblast, while another set of drones went after Rosrezerv’s Zenit oil depot in Kotelnich, Kirov Oblast.
The number of drones that successfully hit their targets is still unclear. The Atlas depot was reportedly struck by two drones, while the Zenit oil depot, nearly 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine, was hit by at least four drones. Both depots caught fire.
- This is the second time Ukraine has targeted the Atlas depot.
- The third time they have hit a depot in Rostov Oblast, Russia.
The first attack on the Atlas depot, on August 3rd, was not as successful as the one against the Proletarsk oil depot on August 18th. The Proletarsk depot remains ablaze, with its 74 reservoirs holding thousands of tons of fuel continuing to burst one after another.
This month alone, Ukraine has struck three different oil depots. At the current rate of one depot hit per week, Russia may soon run out of large depots to store fuel for its military. Russian military bloggers are increasingly alarmed, suspecting that Ukraine is up to something. They are convinced that the Kursk operation is merely a ruse to launch another counterattack elsewhere along the older front line.
One prominent Russian military blogger predicts that the target will be Kherson, Crimea and then Zaphorizhia. This is a concerning proposition for the Russian armed forces, but his reasoning is not without merit.
This has been true for some time. NATO members are indeed assisting Ukraine with reconnaissance. It was recently reported that the United States and the United Kingdom are actively providing Ukraine with satellite imagery of Russian troop deployments and movements in Kursk. Therefore, it is not beyond the realm of possibility for them to do the same over the Black Sea and Crimea.
I have no idea about the first part of his assessment. No one really knows whether Ukraine has hundreds of unmanned boats, and even if they do, it’s unclear how much impact they could have against Russian forces across the Dnipro River or along the Crimean coast.
However, Ukraine does have thousands of uncrewed aerial vehicles (drones in the air). He is certainly right about that. Ukraine has been accumulating them and can carry out raid after raid if they choose. If they can disable Russia’s electronic countermeasures and then launch a massive drone raid against targeted assets, it would be a devastating blow.
Ukraine has attacked the Kinburn Spit, which forms the western edge of Southern Ukraine. They have raided Russian positions on the spit multiple times.
As they were raiding the western edge of Kherson Oblast, Ukraine also destroyed the three ferries Russia was using to transport supplies between Russia and Crimea. This has forced the Russian army to rely on the Kerch rail and road bridge for transport, something they had been avoiding to maintain redundancy in their logistics connectivity between Crimea and Russia.
Now, they have no choice but to use the bridge. For many months, I have argued that the Kerch Bridge, as an air defense magnet, offers better utility for Ukraine if left standing. However, under current conditions, that assessment needs to change. If Ukraine knocks out the Kerch Bridge, Russia will struggle immensely to supply Crimea and the Kherson sector.
If Ukraine launches a massive counterattack on Kherson and Crimea, after severly damaging the Kerch bridge, events could indeed unfold as described by the Russian military blogger: send a swarm of drones, deploy a landing party to Crimea and Kherson, force Russian troops to reposition, and simultaneously launch another raid on the Zaporizhzhia sector, moving toward the Sea of Azov.
This plan is feasible, but it would be disheartening for a small group of Western officials who are not interested in seeing Putin lose. That is the main challenge I foresee. If Ukraine has a strong supply of weapons, enough artillery shells, ATACMS missiles, and a sufficient number of infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, this plan is doable.
The repeated strikes on fuel depots now make a lot of sense when viewed through this lens. Those depots stood untouched for a very long time, even though Ukraine had the drones. Only now have they targeted them.
I believe Ukraine is keeping the option open to launch a series of counterattacks. Unfortunately, they cannot do it all on their own. They will need strong support from the West to make it happen.
Russian military bloggers are extremely concerned, and I can understand why. Ukraine has opened up a path to victory. It is risky, but the option to win has once again been brought to the forefront for Western consideration.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 256 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
