Arizona looks tight. Trump will still struggle.

This state will be Kamala Harris’s to lose

If you look at the polling numbers coming out of Arizona, it appears the state is going down to the wire, with both presidential campaigns scrambling to reach the finish line.

Donald Trump has gone from enjoying a 2-point lead to worrying about trailing Harris by 1 point.

The state has been an unusual phenomenon. Biden won Arizona in 2020 by just 10,457 votes. On the same date, November 3, 2020, Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly defeated Republican candidate Martha McSally by 79,000 votes.

Many Arizona residents voted for Democrat Mark Kelly for the Senate while also supporting Trump at the top of the ballot. That trend persists.

Harris is currently leading Trump by just one point in the state, while Democrat Ruben Gallego holds a 5-point lead over Republican Kari Lake in the Senate race.

But this is one state that has been notoriously difficult for pollsters to get right. Two years ago, in the gubernatorial race between Kari Lake (R) and Katie Hobbs (D), most pollsters, including those with a…