As Expected, Russians Throw Everything into Kharkiv Sector
Ukraine is taking a little bit of risk. It is well worth the returns.
Ukraine’s fierce response to Russian attack from the north east is finally starting to stretch the Russian armed forces. According to military bloggers on both sides, Russian armed forces has started to draw down on the reserves to sustain their north-eastern offensive.
Three days ago, after watching the developments in north east, I wrote the following:
Aside from pouring more and more resources into the sector in hopes of victory, the Russian armed forces lack a coherent strategy to deploy against the Ukrainian forces.
Ukraine has begun counter-attacking. It has been a while since I wrote those words. Now, it’s Russia attempting to defend the two axes in the northeast.
Ouch.
They can’t stay.
They can’t leave.
They will add.
They will pay
In the last six days, the Russians have lost 7,350 personnel. That is slightly over 1,000 personnel per day. Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, stated in an interview with the RBC-Ukraine news agency in January this year that “Every day about 1,000–1,100 people join the ranks of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.”
This number has been confirmed by many other sources. Recruiting 1,000 soldiers per day is likely the average upper limit of their recruitment capacity over the past six months. As a result, whenever the Russians start incurring losses that exceed 1,000 soldiers per day, they will eventually have to draw from their reserves.
In May, they lost closer to 39,000 personnel, and the pace of losses continued into the first week of June. These losses are still very close to the average daily losses they incurred in May. Let’s also not forget that this army’s combat power is primarily infantry — mass infantry.
When a warehouse with extra ammunition shells at the frontline is destroyed by an enemy strike, you take shells from another warehouse and send them. That is what the Russians are doing now, except it is not shells — they are sending more infantry to maintain their capacity in the sector. This requirement is further complicated by the fact that Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrski, has also marked the north east as a high-priority target.
I don’t think he is trying to merely hold the line in the northeast. The way the Ukrainian forces are moving in Vovchansk, I believe the Commander-in-Chief has decided to go all out to evict the Russians from the northeast. The Russians dared Ukraine to take action in the sector, and now Ukraine has politely said, fine, we accept the challenge.
As you can see from the image above, Ukraine has spread its troops around the Vovchansk section, almost in three directions. The Russians are locked into a pocket, with Ukrainian forces trying to advance from the south.
Meanwhile, Russian forces are still continuing their creeping advances in the Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka sectors. ISW reported this development in their assesment today:
Russian forces recently advanced west of Avdiivka amid continued Russian offensive operations in this area on June 5. Geolocated footage published on June 5 shows that Russian forces advanced across the C051801 Umanske-Netaylove road north of Netaylove (west of Avdiivka).[84] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced up to 1.5 kilometers in the Karlivka area and are moving towards Umanske and Yasnobrodivka (all west of Avdiivka).
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances north and southeast of Chasiv Yar. Geolocated footage published on June 4 indicates that Russian forces have advanced along Lisova Street in eastern Kalynivka (just north of Chasiv Yar).A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced 300 meters northeast of Kalynivka, and other milbloggers reported Russian advances within and around Kalynivka, which is generally consistent with available geolocated footage.Additional geolocated footage published on June 1 shows that Russian forces marginally advanced in fields northeast of Andriivka (southeast of Chasiv Yar).
So, it may seem like the Russian plan is working. The idea behind the north eastern front was to stretch the Ukrainian forces before they are fully equipped with Western weapons and to use this weakness to advance near the Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka sectors. In a way, this is happening. Ukraine has moved forces to the north east, and the Russians are creeping around Chasiv Yar while maintaining some pace in the Avdiivka sector.
However, that would be a horribly wrong assessment. I fully support Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrski’s decision to fully commit to evicting the Russian troops from the north east.
If he can go all the way, which is highly possible, the Russian troop capacity will undergo a massive reduction. Whatever territory Ukraine loses near Chasiv Yar or Avdiivka can be retaken. To be honest, I don’t even know if that would be necessary. I think they do have to take back Klishiivka, a village with dominant views over the Bakhmut sector, but other than that, the rest of the territory is not at all important.
If Ukraine can evict the Russians from the northeast, it will be a massive victory for the Ukrainian forces. Since the Russians cannot afford to accept such a defeat at this point in time, they will end up committing way too many resources. More and more reserves will be sent to defend the northeast.
The Russians have even pulled some of their trainers in the area to join the front in the north east. Perhaps this was an emergency situation that required immediate reinforcement, and the Russians did not have reserves or additional strength from nearby areas to send.
But if that is where they are now, how long will they be able to sustain the current rate of losses, which has stayed above 1,200 casualties per day throughout May and continued into June?
I think Commander-in-Chief Syrski is risking land in Avdiivka to find that out. I don’t think the Russians have the power to breach Chasiv Yar. There will be losses in the Avdiivka sector.
I believe the Commander-in-Chief is right on the money.
He needs to stay the course.
I do vaguely remember the day when the slain Wagner Chief Yevegeny Prighozin spoke about collossal losses suffered by the Russian armed forces. It was 2023. He was talking about 1,000 soldeirs per day. We are now a cool 20% above that number and rising. And no one is talking about it.
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