As Ukraine inches closer to victory, expect misinformation on steroids.
Expect nothing less
My timeline for Ukraine to defeat the Russian armed forces is between six months and a year. Let’s not get into defining what exactly constitutes a victory, as too many people are trying to shape that outcome. With so many cooks in the kitchen, the outcome may not be exactly what we hope for.
It could be, but there are no guarantees.
Over the next year, Ukraine will position itself where it cannot be defeated, while Russia will find itself in a situation where continuing the war will result in total defeat. Russia may then be forced to wave the white flag, come up with a face-saving narrative, and retreat.
For the sake of this discussion, my definition of victory is: Ukraine’s combat power reaching a level where there can only be one possible winner if the war continues. Ukraine will achieve this within six months if the U.S. provides the right weapons at the right time, or within twelve months if the U.S. delivers the wrong weapons or delays support.
My confidence in the U.S. making the right choices has risen significantly over the last two weeks. The U.S. is set to provide over a billion dollars in military aid per month until the assistance allocated by Congress in April 2024 is exhausted. As a result, despite the ongoing territorial losses for both Ukraine and Russia, Ukrainian combat power is poised to rise significantly in the next six to twelve months.
If victory on the battlefield is not achievable, the only other option is to win the information war against Ukraine and the West, something the Kremlin has excelled at. Over the past two and a half years, Russia’s efforts have forced Western leaders to establish numerous red lines, which in turn have restrained their actions.
This has been a significant win for the Kremlin, giving them the breathing room to recover from battlefield setbacks. It has also allowed Putin to circumvent sanctions, build the alliance of rogues, and find ways to recruit more troops without resorting to full mobilization.
The Kremlin will undoubtedly double down on its information war — that’s a given. But how and when?
Timing is everything, and I believe we are entering that critical period now.
The battlefield remains somewhat balanced. Ukraine advanced in the Kursk region, swallowing over 1,000 square kilometers and leaving the door open to capturing another 1,000. In a short burst, they effectively nullified the territorial losses they suffered in 2024. However, the front lines have become static again, as Russian forces are unable to advance at the rapid pace Ukraine demonstrated.
Ukraine doesn’t want to keep counter-attacking to expand the front or break through established lines, as they need to conserve manpower and build up their reserve capacity. This is their best chance to strengthen their reserves before launching another major offensive against Russian forces.
They need time, and the Russians likely realize this. As a result, Russia will do everything it can to hammer the front lines and force Ukraine to commit its hidden brigades. With the U.S. now accelerating military aid to Ukraine, Russia will likely try to hit hard before American weapons reach the front.
That time is now. It is almost now or never for the Kremlin’s army.
There’s an additional advantage to ramping up their information war at this moment, as the U.S. is approaching its election season. If the Kremlin can help elect the “MAGA emperor” and his allies, their future becomes more secure.
Years of subtly corrupting the global conservative movement into a nativist one are paying off. Show me one prominent global right-wing figure who has expressed strong support for defending a democracy against an aggressive dictator — you won’t find one.
That’s a mark of success for the Kremlin. This success allows them to push their narrative onto the global stage. It won’t reach us directly, but it will trickle down through Western media, which often falls into the trap of sensationalism. We have many elements within our society — some aware, some unaware — that will amplify the Kremlin’s agenda.
Is there anything we can do about it?
The sewage hose of disinformation is already directed at us and has been for some time. But how many elections have the right wing actually won over the past eight years? They’ve come close, but they haven’t managed to cross the finish line. It didn’t work in Britain, even though the population was primed for nativism through Brexit. It didn’t work in France, despite anti-immigration sentiment being stoked. It didn’t work in the U.S. in 2020, nor in 2022, and so far, it hasn’t worked in 2024.
This is despite Western media, social media and right-wing billionaires doing everything they can to destabilize the current social fabric. Yet, our society’s resilience has withstood the Kremlin’s information war for years. We’re now in the final stretch, and we can survive. Our own history has proven, beyond any reasonable doubt, that we can get through this.
We just need to stay aware — that’s all.
We’ve weathered storms like this before. Let’s do it again.
Thanks for reading. The mainstream media seems clueless and perhaps uninterested. The war is getting closer to the end. Now, more than ever, it’s crucial to make critical information about Ukraine accessible. That’s why I’ve made 290 stories available to the public in 2024, inlcuding this one.