Biden Admin Releases $375 million Aid to Ukraine. Atleast 150 APCs inlcuded in the package.

$8 billion in military assistance for Ukraine is expected to be released before September 30.

It’s not the dollar value of the aid package to Ukraine that makes a difference; it’s the specific weapons systems included in the package that truly matter. The aid package released by the United States yesterday is worth only $375 million, but compared to many others, this one is significantly better.

Why?

Because the type of weapon systems being sent reflects the conditions on the ground.

“At least 150 M1117s are included in this Drawdown. The first 250 pledged were via the EDA program but had to be refurbished first. These are presumably coming straight out of stocks, so long as they were already Condition Code A or B. Amazing what the DoD can do when they aren’t being intransigent”, said defense analyst Colby Badhwar.

The aid package included the usual items: ammunition for HIMARS, 155mm shells, air-to-ground weapons, and spare parts. However, it also featured armored security vehicles, Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles, light tactical vehicles, armored bridging systems, and patrol boats — exactly the types of equipment Ukraine needs to maintain mobility on the battlefield.

Russian forces are struggling with mobility, while Ukraine is building a force that prioritizes it. The Kursk incursion was successful for Ukraine because they had the mobility that the Russians lacked.

Despite having significant funds available, the Biden administration opted for a modest package. However, they at least refrained from hindering Ukraine by sending inappropriate weaponry. It may be a small package, but it contains the kind of weapons Ukraine needs on the ground.

After the current $375 million drawdown, the administration still has $5.55 billion in drawdown authority to be exercised before September 30. Multiple media reports indicate that the administration will notify Congress of its intention to use the entire remaining authority ($5.55 billion) and an additional $2.4 billion through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI).

Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA): Congress grants the president the authority to allocate funds, which the president then uses to take weapons from American stockpiles and send them to Ukraine.

Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI): Unlike the PDA, this program does not draw weapons directly from U.S. stockpiles. Instead, the administration places orders with defense manufacturers, who produce the weapons and deliver them to Ukraine. The USAI also provides additional support, such as training, maintenance of equipment provided by the United States, and more.

The expected $8 billion aid package, combining PDA and USAI, does not mean that Ukraine will immediately receive a surge of defense articles capable of turning the tide against Putin. The administration will notify Congress that it is exercising the full drawdown authority granted by Congress, as this authority expires on September 30. They will issue the notification, inform Congress about the types of weapons they plan to send, and then decide on the timeline for delivery.

A senior administration official told CNN that “the U.S. believes Ukraine will need at least $500 million worth of presidential drawdown authority per month through fiscal year 2025.”

That sounds like a fair assessment to me. Fourteen months, seven billion dollars. The admin still has access to a lot more than $7 billion. As I mentioned before, the $61 billion Congress provided for Ukraine in April 2024 is more than enough to win the war. The key is to extract as much value as possible by sending the right weapons at the right time.

That’s where the administration has fallen short. They came dangerously close to letting nearly $5.8 billion in PDA expire by Monday. If that had happened, it would have been a devastating blow for Ukraine. Consider it from Putin’s perspective: the moment the administration lost access to that money, he would know there was no way Congress could pass another aid package. Without the PDA, the United States would have no means to respond to any emergency situations.

It would have been a disaster.

The announcement is yet to come, but I don’t foresee any issues from here. Disaster averted.

Thank you, House.

(Why am I thanking the House? Because the administration asked the House to extend the PDA. The House said, “F*** you,” and forced the administration to exercise the full authority.)

Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 290 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.