Biden is not merely the glue that binds the Western World for Ukraine
History is not going to talk about Presidential Approval Ratings
In 2012, President Barack Obama warned Assad’s potential use of chemical weapons as “a red line” that would have “enormous consequences” and “change my calculus” on American military intervention in Syria’s civil war.
One year later, Bashar-Al-Assad did exactly what Obama had warned him not to do.
“A rebel-held suburb of Damascus was attacked with sarin gas — a nerve agent that causes lung muscle paralysis and results in death from suffocation”. The attack reportedly killed nearly 1,400 people, including 426 children
Obama did nothing.
Two years later, in 2015, when the rebels started to squeeze Bashar-Al-Assad’s regime, the dictator ran to Russia pleading for Vladimir Putin’s help. For Putin, it was once in a lifetime opportunity to establish a Russian presence in the middle-east.
Putin grabbed the offer to assist with both hands because he knew, if Obama was not ready to act against a small-time dictator right next to Israel, then there is exactly a sub 0% chance that he is going to intervene when Russia sends boots into Syria. Putin was right. The world quietly watched Bashar-Al-Assad, Iran and Russia turn Syria into a pile of rubble.
The world is witnessing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis today because no one was ready to defend the defenseless ten years ago.
Unlike the political cushion Barack Obama had in 2013–2016, Biden’s path to obstruct Putin in Ukraine is littered with mines. The United States is more divided today than it has ever been. The only thing that unites the far-right and the far-left factions in the United States is their desire to wage a war inside the United States. They hate overseas wars and prefer localized ones. The opposition party in the United States is on a full-time mission to unscrew democracy. Biden’s approval rating jumped off the cliff two years ago and got lost in the wilderness.
Biden had every possible reason to look the other way and not help Ukraine. But instead of worrying about his re-election, he chose to lead the global response to Putin’s invasion.
Biden Got off The Blocks Faster than Putin and Western Allies
President Biden and Russian President Putin were both given some very bad advice before the start of the war. Biden was advised to overestimate the Russian military strength, while Putin was advised to underestimate Ukraine at every level.
It was either a glorious intelligence failure or KGB agents planted the idea that Russia is a super power in our heads. I still marvel at this report that said Russia will defeat NATO forces in 60 hours.
But despite the faulty assumptions, the Biden administration tried its very best to stop the war before it started by quickly declassifying intelligence reports. After the war broke out, the United States recommended Zelensky to flee and run the government from exile.
U.S. officials hoped to prepare Ukraine for a long guerilla war.
But Zelensky and Ukraine had other ideas. Biden was the first to get off the trenches. As soon as Ukrainians dug in and drove the Russians from Kyiv, Biden readjusted his support- from-a-distance stance.
Biden was in Europe four weeks after the invasion, rallying confused EU leaders for Ukraine’s defense. Since that time, Biden’s actions indicate a clear understanding of the necessity to hold the western alliance together and not allow any petty differences rupture the western coalition against Russia.
Biden is the glue that holds the alliance. U.K, Poland and the Baltics are the spear that drives the Ukrainian army forward.
Let us not be fooled by the regular EU meetings and statements that are released to European media. The alliance to this day remains fragile mainly because the top two economies, Germany and France, have no idea what they are doing. They are simply all over the place.
French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are still struggling to come to terms with the fact that Ukraine can actually win this war. Maybe they both were selfish. Or maybe they were simply naïve. I don’t know. For now, both men remain the weakest (slowest) link in the western coalition.
Biden’s Role in Delivering Tanks to Ukraine
It’s unfair to give Biden full credit on this one since the United Kingdom and Poland played a huge role in forcing the EU to deliver tanks to Ukraine.
A lack of offensive weapons had become apparent to Ukraine by November last year, when the Russians were retreating across the Dnipro river. At that time, however, the west had no plans to provide Ukraine with heavy weapons it would need to run through the defensive barriers erected by the Russian army in Ukrainian lands.
In the following three months, the war meandered from a stalemate to a Russian winter offensive. Ukraine was desperately in need of heavy weapons to break through the Russian barriers. But Germany, the country with the best tanks in the world, was simply not ready to help Ukraine.
Ukraine was growing restless. So did some of the western leaders. All eyes were on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his unreasonable refusal. The pressure would have driven the man into a corner, but Biden provided the cover by not applying pressure on Germany publicly, while also not pushing back against European leaders who were piling it on the German leader.
The UK announced it would offer the Challenger tanks, making it the first country to cross the red line, while Poland openly requested Germany to allow exports of German made Leopard tanks in its possession to Ukraine.
Had Biden announced before Germany that the United States would supply M1-Abrams tanks to Ukraine, the German Chancellor would have faced a huge PR nightmare inside and outside his country. By waiting for him to take the decision to supply the tanks, Biden gave the German Chancellor a chance to make the turn around without breaking his leg on the curb.
Is Biden flying fighter jets to Ukraine?
In order to build consensus over the supply of fighter jets to Ukraine, President Biden may have executed his last minute turn-around strategy. Or may be he actually does not want to supply the fighter jets at all.
Slovakia announced a couple of days ago that it will supply MiG jets to Ukraine. President Biden has been saying over and over that the United States is not thinking about supplying fighter jets to Ukraine. But his administration somehow felt it would be nice to appreciate the effort by Slovakia to help Ukraine.
The United States has offered Slovakia 12 new military helicopters as compensation for the MiG-29 fighter jets the European country is giving to Ukraine, Slovakia’s defense minister said Wednesday.
So, why would Biden, who time and again said, “NO”, to supply fighter jets, wasted no time in announcing his decision to compensate an ally who is willing to supply fighter jets to Ukraine?
In addition to Slovakia, Poland had also announced that it would provide Ukraine with fighter jets.
Asked about Poland’s announcement about sending warplanes to Ukraine, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters, “These are sovereign decisions for any country to make and we respect those sovereign decisions.”
Kirby praised Poland for its overall security assistance for Ukraine, saying the country was “punching above its weight.”
“As with every other contribution by every other nation, they get to determine not only what they’re going to give but how they’re going to characterize it,” he said. “It doesn’t change our calculus with respect to F-16s,” Kirby said, referring to Biden’s recent comments ruling out providing the fighter jets to Ukraine. “It’s not on the table right now.”
Poland, according to the Biden administration, is punching above its weight. I think Biden wants Europe to take the lead in supplying fighter jets to Ukraine. If that is what he is thinking, then he is absolutely correct.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine will be able to assert air superiority over the other side due to the air defense systems deployed by both sides. The Ukrainian military needs fighter jets that are flexible enough to protect its troops as they advance into Russian-occupied territory. The Russians may be hoarding their aircrafts in order to do the exact opposite, when the Ukrainians advance.
There is no need for Ukraine to purchase a large number of aircraft if the support of their ground troops continues to be their top priority. Europe certainly has enough aircraft in its inventories to meet Ukraine’s requirements. According to Statista, NATO has 3,527 fighter jets/interceptors and 1,369 combat helicopters in its possession.
In the event that Europe can meet Ukraine’s fighter jet needs, it will allow the US to concentrate on the air defense systems and missiles Ukraine needs in order to keep the Russian air force at bay.
Putin has not waged a war against the United States. Instead, he is trying to tear apart the European Union and slowly destroy the democratic order. Biden understands the importance of the moment, unlike some European leaders. It seems he would prefer Europe to provide fighter jets to Ukraine, while the United States focuses on other things.
If that is what he is thinking, then he is right. Europe cannot keep hiding behind the United States forever.
