GOP’s Senate Campaign in Georgia Takes a Nose Dive

Democrats inch closer to their 51st Senate Vote

Shankar Narayan


Image crated by Author

Oh, my…Georgia

It would be better to call Georgia the purple state rather than the peach state. The twin runoff in Georgia determined the Senate control in 2020.

Democrats would never have achieved those legislative victories they piled up over the last two years if it weren’t for the twin 2021 present. It would have been a glorious stretch of nothingness topped with partisan bitterness.

Thankfully, it did not happen.

The incoming Congress is divided. We have GOP-House of theatrics squaring up against a Democratic-Senate of gridlock. The Georgia run-off will decide whether or not the Democrats will be able to rebalance the judiciary and take control of Senate committees.

  • A 50–50 Senate requires power to be shared by both parties. When you have 51 votes, you take control of the Senate committees.
  • A win by Raphael Warnock will go a long way towards protecting the Democratic Senate majority in 2024.

The GOP is well aware of the implications. Losing the Pennsylvania Senate seat to the Democrats is going to sting for at least another six years. If Freshman Senator John Fetterman stays healthy and stays in the news, GOP could very well lose that seat for the next two decades. GOP leaders do not want to face the same prospect in Georgia.

The GOP footprint across the country is shrinking but intensifying at the same time. They control less states now than they did before. In some states like Florida and Ohio, where they are in control, they have increased their margins. Red states are becoming redder, while purple states are leaning blue.

Georgia is one of the most important Senate races for the GOP. The GOP is putting up a good fight. But it will not be easy. I believe the Democrats will win the seat.

Since 2016, polling has been unreliable, but we still use them to get a sense of the mood of the electorate. The quality has certainly gone down, and the national media’s bias towards profit has only exacerbated the problem.



Shankar Narayan

Lov stats and hate status-quo. Forecasted all the states Biden won in 2020. Correctly forecasted the twin Georgia elections in 2021, House and Senate in 2022.