Britain Ties the Kremlin in Knots. Again
Will they ever stop!
If not for Great Britain and its Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Ukraine would have been thrown to the wolves by this time. It did not happen. Ukraine is in this position today, with the option to believe that victory is possible because every time the allies dropped their eyesight at the fork, it was Great Britain that lifted them and showed them the right direction to walk.
When they ran around hiding the tanks, it was Great Britain along with Poland that forced them to the table. When they scampered at the mere mention of fighter jets, it was Great Britain along with the Netherlands that created the fighter jet training coalition to normalize the option to deliver jets to Ukraine. When they hid in the cellar when Ukraine asked for long-range weapons, it was Great Britain and France that quietly delivered Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles to Ukraine.
You name a mind-numbing problem Ukraine had (except for Patriots), and I will tell you how Great Britain changed the game. French President Emmanuel Macron is threatening to take that game-changer tag from British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. But hey, I am not complaining. No one on the side of democracy ever will.
The UK government announced this week that it will send the biggest aid package it has ever done to Ukraine:
The Ministry of Defence will also send our largest-ever single package of equipment from the UK, designed to help push back the Russian invasion on land, sea and air. It includes:
60 boats including offshore raiding craft, rigid raiding craft and dive boats as well as maritime guns
More than 1,600 strike and air defence missiles, as well as additional Storm Shadow long-range precision-guided missiles.
More than 400 vehicles, including 160 protected mobility ‘Husky’ vehicles, 162 armoured vehicles and 78 all-terrain vehicles.
Nearly 4 million rounds of small arms ammunition.
UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said:
“This record package of military aid will give President Zelenskyy and his brave nation more of the kit they need to kick Putin out and restore peace and stability in Europe.
The UK was the first to provide NLAW missiles, the first to give modern tanks and the first to send long-range missiles. Now, we are going even further. We will never let the world forget the existential battle Ukraine is fighting, and with our enduring support, they will win.”
Oh, well. They’ve earned the right to brag. And they should.
You cannot overlook the timing of the announcement. Downing Street is sending a clear message to Europe: don’t you dare go to sleep now that the US is threatening to wake up. The announcement of the largest-ever military aid package from Britain to Ukraine was made on April 23rd, the same day the US Senate cleared the Ukraine aid bill.
I wish someone knew the timing. Did they do it before or after? It would be interesting to take note of their actions. Anyway, that’s not going to make a huge difference.
They could have done it last week. They could have done it next week. But they chose to do it on the same day the US Senate gathered and before Prime Minister Rishi Sunak embarked on his Europe tour.
Prime Minister Sunak is expected to meet with Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
So, Sunak made the announcement and then went to Europe. If he was planning to put pressure on European allies and request them not to fall back to sleep, what better way to do it than making the announcement himself with a record-breaking package and then asking the allies to follow suit?
What are the 1,600 air-defense and air-strike missiles Great Britain is supplying to Ukraine?
Great Britain never informed anyone that they had supplied the long range Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine. We only realized the transfer had happened when Ukraine fired one into a Russian weapons facility in Luhansk in May 2023.
I don’t think Britain is going to disclose what they are planning to give Ukraine. So, we’ll need to speculate about what is being delivered and confirm it after they show up on the battlefield.
Anti-aircraft missiles: These must be the AIM-132 missiles. Multiple reports indicated earlier this year that the United Kingdom helped Ukraine adopt its Soviet-era air defense systems to fire Western weapons. Dubbed FrankenSAMS, these units can use the UK-made AIM-132 air defense missiles. Each missile costs £200,000.
Air-strike missiles: I doubt if Britain is referring to Storm Shadow missiles. They are too proud of that one to simply call it an air-strike missile. They are highly unlikely to discuss that shipment. It’s just my gut feeling, not backed up by any evidence.
The air-strike missiles Britain is referring to could be the Martlet, a highly versatile precision strike missile. It can be launched from air and ground platforms. It has a range of just 6 kilometers but travels at a speed of Mach 1.5.
Or it could be the Brimstone, an air-launched anti-tank/anti-armored vehicle missile. A 50kg weapon that is highly effective against moving targets.
Most probably, both missiles are enroute to Ukraine.
While the choice of weapons is important, I think Great Britain has once again taken the lead in shaping the allies’ response. This is why the Kremlin has a special category of disgust for the Brits. The feelings are mutual. The Brits have never forgetten the umpteen number of times KGB depolyed their assets in Britain.
Britain’s Wake-Up Call for Europe
I was extremely disappointed that Europe has still not figured out where it will get the additional Patriots from. It is still not clear if the United States will move additional Patriot batteries from its arsenal. They do have more than enough, but this is something that Europe should be doing, as there are plenty of other capabilities that the United States will be able to send to Ukraine.
As you can see from the Kiel Institute’s support tracker, the support levels were starting to taper.
That is why I think Britain making that announcement and keeping the tag ‘biggest ever package’ on its side is extremely valuable at this point. Some where there is this, let some one else do it, attitude within the coalition. It is not good. Britain has busted it with this aid package and now they will have the leverage to put other European nations under pressure to match up to their announcment.
Well, the message from Britain to the allies is clear: we provided the biggest-ever aid package, now it’s your turn to do the same. On March 19th, Germany announced a €500 million aid package, which was preceded by a €1.22 billion package in February.
France, on the other hand, still remains somewhat strategically vague about its shipments, but they have placed massive orders for different types of weapon systems from their manufacturers. They are supplying 50 AASM Hammer Glide Bombs to Ukraine every month, and have also announced that they will not export weapons to any country other than Ukraine. Additionally, an unknown number of air-defense missiles have been provided to Ukraine. They are regularly shipping the CEASER artillery units to Ukraine. (will soon do an extensive coverage of French supply to Ukraine)
Both Britain and France are significantly contributing to arming the Ukrainian air force. Most, if not all, of the missiles they are supplying to Ukraine can also be used by the F-16s. They have provided long-range weapons that can be fired from the F-16s, as well as weapons that the Ukrainian air force can use to target frontline positions.
The big four — United States, Germany, France, and Great Britain — have stepped up their support for Ukraine. Now, they need to rally the rest of the allies to contribute in whatever way they can.
The good news is we never had all four nations pressing the pedal at the same time. This is the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2014, the big four are seriously arming Ukraine.
They need to keep pushing.
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