Ceasefire, Then What? Putin’s Trap Tightens

Russia’s War Economy is on Steroids

Zelensky said something yesterday that made me stop.

I’ve never had much faith in “security guarantees” for Ukraine; the last two decades are a graveyard of them — memorandum, agreement, “guarantee.” Different labels, same outcome. It’s not a comfortable place to be, even NATO’s Article 5 often raises more questions than answers in practice.

Surprisingly, Zelensky’s remarks suggest he’s open to a ceasefire. First, let us hear him — and then we’ll unpack what he’s signaling.

President Zelensky:

“Putin is personally afraid of a ceasefire, because it is difficult for him to go from a ceasefire to a war again. Going from a full-scale war to a ceasefire and then starting a full-scale war again is not easy for them.

It is not easy economically, it is not easy with society, it is not easy with the world. And it is definitely not easy with those countries that still shake Putin’s hand today. And that is why he is choosing war for now.

But it is possible to stop this. We need more pressure on Russia. Pressure will work when they lose more from the war than they can lose in other scenarios.