Covid trendline in the United States is not looking good

Shankar Narayan
4 min readNov 22, 2021

Winter is cold.

Photo by Sandra Kapella on Unsplash

When I worked as a stock trader in Manhattan, there was one trader on the floor who was leaps and bounds ahead of the rest. Though he is an excellent researcher, he will attribute his success to keeping things simple and trading higher highs and lower lows.

It is still one of the easy ways to identify momentum.

Covid case momentum in the United States is pointing in the wrong direction.

Instead of breaking the previous (seven-day average) high of 71,397 cases in April and edging lower, the case count reversed direction after hitting 70,825 cases in October.

Screenshot from NYTimes

The trendline is not looking good for the Winter.

Things are not going well in Germany

Nearly 68% of the population is vaccinated in Germany.

The number of Germans with at least one vaccine dose stands at 71%.

And yet, an average of 45,993 cases per day were reported in the last week.

“It’s our low rate of vaccination — we haven’t done what was necessary,” said Dr. Herold in Giessen. She was part of a team of scientists who modeled the impact of a fourth wave and warned in early summer that with the hyper contagious Delta variant at least 85 percent of the whole population would need to be vaccinated to avert a crisis in the health care system.

“We are still below 70 percent,” she said. “I don’t know how we can win this race against time with the fourth wave. I fear we’ve already lost.”

Germans have made it clear that this is the pandemic of the unvaccinated. The fact that the country still refuses to go into lockdown despite caseload rising to the highest level ever clearly indicates that the majority of the new cases reported are among the unvaccinated.

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Shankar Narayan

He didn't care what he had or what he had left, he cared only about what he must do.