The day Kremlin dreaded is here
Czech Sourced Artillery Shells Will Reach Ukraine in Days
I was hopeful that the United States would clear its aid package at some point, but my confidence level was not that high. So, it was not something I kept looking out for like a kid hungry for food. However, I was that kid when it came to artillery shells.
Since mid-February this year, when the President of the Czech Republic announced that he had located hundreds of thousands of artillery shells that could be sourced for Ukraine, I have been eagerly awaiting their arrival.
It was a long process, but it has finally come to an end. The first batch of artillery shells, estimated to be in the tens of thousands, will arrive in Ukraine in a few days.
“As I promised, the first tens of thousands of 155 mm ammunition will be delivered in June. Ukraine can expect the first batch in the coming days,” Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said during a meeting in Prague yesterday.
Fiala said that as of now, 15 EU and NATO countries have already provided more than €1.6 billion for the Czech initiative, and these efforts “will soon improve Ukraine’s defence capabilities”.
Soon after the meeting, the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal, wrote the following on Telegram:
During the bilateral meeting with Mr. Fiala, we discussed the implementation of the artillery initiative, which has already raised more than EUR 1.6 billion. It is important for us that the ammunition is delivered on time, systematically and according to the schedule starting in June. We also discussed the possibility of using our partners’ weapons for defense on the aggressor’s territory. I am grateful to Mr. Prime Minister for his support in this matter.
Among the topics of conversation were joint production in the defense industry, joining efforts to increase pressure on Russia. Sanctions, confiscation of Russian assets, a formula for peace, and topical issues of cooperation.
We are grateful to the Czech Republic for its comprehensive support.
At $1.6 billion, Ukraine should recieve way more than one million artillery shells over the next several months.
On April 11th, I made two assessments that are worth revisiting, as they are very important to what we are about to discuss here.
“The next eight weeks are going to be an extremely difficult period to negotiate. Russians are not going to stop until they exhaust their reserve strength. Ukraine is still short on material and manpower. Russia will keep pounding their cities, dams, and energy infrastructure to keep Ukraine’s air defenses depleted and away from the frontline.
Although the Avdiivka sector continues to remain the focal point of Russia’s attention to launch waves of armored assaults, I would be surprised if the Russians stick to this area alone”.
We saw that happen. Russians went after Chasiv Yar. They opened up a front in Kharkhiv sector. They are building up troops in the north to add another section to their north-east counter-offensive.
I did not change my assessment or provide a counterbalance after the United States cleared the $60 billion aid package. By mid-April, I wasn’t even considering the possibility of the United States clearing the aid package. And yet, I had written that Ukraine needed to survive the eight weeks.
So, what was I pinning my hopes on for a Ukrainian resurgence? What were the factors that I thought would change the direction of the war after eight weeks?
It wasn’t multiple factors.
It was one factor.
The supply of artillery shells.
Ukraine cannot defend the frontline without sufficient artillery shells. The number of Russian troops in occupied territory has tripled compared to 2022. However, the length of the frontline did not double or triple. It is nearly the same, with one additional front added in the northeast: the Kharkiv sector.
As a result, the amount of artillery shells Ukraine needs to keep the Russian combat power in check has not drastically increased. I believe the requirement will remain fairly stable through the war.
What are the baseline shell requirements for Ukraine?
To defend the line, Ukraine needs to fire 4,000 artillery shells per day. This number will allow them to keep the pressure on the Russians, destroying enough of their combat capacity to force them to defend their lines and soften their ability to advance. Thanks to the high level of precision offered by the artillery launchers used by Ukraine, this number — 4,000 shells per day, or 120,000 shells per month — is extremely important. Anything less than this level Ukraine will be on the backfoot.
To start punching, Ukraine needs to fire 6,000 artillery shells per day. This will allow Ukraine to intensify the pressure on the Russians, not only weakening them but also opening up opportunities for Ukraine to mount counter-attacks.
From where am I drawing my conclusions? From the data below and from watching the results of engagement over the last two years and comparing the rate of of the artillery firing rate between the two sides during those periods.
The data from the image above is very close to reality. Ukraine’s ability to defend was seriously weakened in the final stretch of 2023, a period when they were firing way less than 4,000 artillery shells per day. That number remains the baseline today, and I believe it will stay that way for a long time.
I wrote on April 11th that Ukraine needed to survive for eight weeks because I believed Ukraine would need that much time to receive the shells procured through the Czech-led initiative. Once they receive those shells and start firing back, they will be in a better position to hold the line.
So, I was eagerly waiting for that date to arrive. In the meantime, the United States also cleared its aid package, supplying Ukraine with an unknown number of artillery shells. All of this will help the Ukrainian defenders on the frontline.
With ATACMS already starting to disrupt the Russian assets in the rear, Russia will face a slow deterioration of their combat capacity. Yesterday, Ukraine targeted one of the largest Russian ammunition dumps in Luhansk with ATACMS missiles.
After the arrival of the ATACMS, Ukraine gained the capacity to hit deep targets. With the arrival of tens of thousands of artillery shells, Ukraine will be able to strike both the Russian frontline and the immediate rear. Together, these capabilities will force the Russian armed forces to undergo a significant reduction in combat capacity.
In a matter of weeks, the impact will be felt on the frontline.
I am expecting the changes to reflect in the battlefield in the last two weeks of June 2024. At that point, we will see a change in tempo of operations between the two sides.
How this Will Impact Russia’s New Front in the Northeast
Since the Western world is still deliberating over the restrictions placed on the Ukrainian armed forces, effectively tying one hand behind their back, the additional supply of artillery shells will not impact the Russian troops stationed within the Russian border.
However, the Russians will not be able to entrench themselves as much as they would have liked in the twin bulges they have opened up. Ukraine has been using its air force to support its ground forces in this sector by dropping glide bombs on Russian positions in occupied areas.
You can see one of these air-force dropped bombs taking out the Vovchansk Central Hospital, which the Russians had taken over and turned into a base.
One reason Ukraine may have used glide bombs is their payload; at 500 kg, they pack a significant punch. Additionally, their precision is noteworthy. Using them helps keep the Russian armed forces destablized in the sector. The arrival of artillery shells will further augment the Ukrainian forces in this section. If the Ukrainian brigades operating in the sector are immediately allotted an additional ten or twenty thousand shells for use, the Russians will end up paying the price.
So, it will definitely help Ukraine counter the Russian attack in the northeast. However, more than that, I am eager to see how the Russian advance in the Avdiivka sector continues from here on out. That is the one sector where the Russians continue to advance.
Although the pace has slowed in the last three weeks compared to the speed with which they advanced in the first three weeks of April, it will be the Avdiivka sector where we will notice the immediate impact of the additional artillery shells in Ukrainian hands.
It should turn into a stalemate.
Will Ukraine counter-attack to liberate territory?
Absolutely not.
Limited counter-attacks to reclaim key locations are certainly possible. However, the intention will not be to liberate territory. No matter how many weapons flow into Ukrainian warehouses, Ukraine cannot consider large-scale counter-attacks until their troop strength increases. They need to train, equip, and move a good number of brigades to the frontline. As they start engaging, opportunities will naturally open up for them.
There is no need to sit, plan, or mark specific days to launch a counter-attack. That is what the Russians are doing. Ukraine has no need for that. Their priority should be to stabilize their lines, even after receiving the F16s. The focus must be on degrading the Russian rear with deep fires, bogging the Russians down in the northeast, and continuously probing the entire frontline.
They need to lie low for some more time, at least until the end of July, conserving their power so that it builds up.
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