Defensive Ukraine Decimates Putin’s Second Army
Time to raise the third army
Like a cancer spreading its wings inside the body as it moves from stage 1 to stage four before bringing down the host, Vladimir Putin, corrupted the Russian system step by step to consolidate power in his hands before crushing the Russian society.
Putin’s ascent to the top and the subsequent consolidation of power has rendered the Russian society incapable of stopping him from destroying their country. Just like cancer, there is no cure. Russians, 146 million of them, are left watching the collapse of their country as bystanders.
A man who spent 17-years as a mid-level KGB agent. A man who worked as translator-recruiter in Dresden, Germany in the 1980s. A man who became the deputy prime minister for Russian President Boris Yelstin in 1999, is now dragging Russia to a similar fate experienced by the Soviet Union. He is breaking everything apart and he will take Russia down with him if he continues in this direction.
He sacrificed more than 150,000 Russian lives for his occupy Ukraine project. And he is hungry for more. The Russians can do nothing but to watch his show-piece events and believe that he and only he can say the truth.
The Russia-Ukraine war will mourn its first anniversary today. Ukraine is anticipating a barrage of missile attacks. I think Putin will order large-scale destruction of civilian property in Ukraine because he has to show something to his domestic audience. That his special military operation is going as well as it has always been planned.
He has little choice, because the eastern offensive he ordered his generals to execute this month has gone horribly wrong. The frontline in Ukraine has barely moved in the last two weeks despite Russia pressing as much capacity it can into the skirmish. Ukrainian defenders have done a stellar job in soaking up all the pressure and make Russia pay for its strategic impotence.
The Cost
Data collected by the U.K Ministry of Defense shows Russia lost an average of 824 soldiers every day in February, the second highest level since the start of Putin’s war. The number of injured, missing and way too traumatized to do anything will easily be two to three times higher than the number of deaths.
Russia has lost more than 18,000 soldiers this month. Russia’s eastern offensive could have easily rendered 50,000 soldiers out of service.
Putin ordered partial mobilization in September 2022, after losing one third of his army. 56,000 soldiers, out of the 125,000 Putin sent to Ukraine were dead at that point. The battalions Russia positioned behind the 1200 kilometer frontline in Ukraine were in desperate need for a human refill.
Ukraine deftly exploited the Russian weakness during this period, liberating tens of thousands of square kilometers from Russia.
Russians had less land to defend, while new recruits were slowly filling up the gaps left by dead Russian soldiers. The additional capacity Russia generated in the last few months is now being pressed into its eastern offensive.
Putin ordered his generals to capture Donetsk and Luhansk in its entirety. If only dreams can come true, Putin will already be the Czar ruling everything between the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean. Putin once again overestimated Russian capacity and underestimated Ukrainian resolve.
Ukraine has done a stellar job of defending the eastern frontline, stretching more than 60 kilometers, from Bakhmut in the south to Kremmina in the north. The frontline barely moved after countless attacks.
The Russians told the entire world they are going to win Bakhmut. It is Feb 24th, one year after Russia invaded Ukraine, Czar Putin could not even take full control of the one town his army has been trying to win forever.
The eastern offensive has cost Russia immense amount of manpower, ammunition, weapons and vehicles. Putin’s half baked second army is done. Putin did not stop the first time until it became too much. He is going to do the same this time as well.
He will expend as much Russian resources as possible until it becomes too late. He will be forced to raise his third army.
His third army is going to face off with the best Ukraine will put together since the start of the war.
The List
No one anticipated the war to last this long. And the allies were a little slow to react to the growing necessity to train Ukrainian soldiers to use NATO weapons. But things have ramped up quite nicely in the last three months. Nine countries have joined the U.K led training program to train Ukrainian soldiers.
Code named Operation Interfax, the U.K led training program gathers instructors from nine countries, to offer training for Ukrainian soldiers. The U.K has already trained more than 10,000 Ukrainian troops in the last six months and the program is expected to train another 20,000 soldiers this year.
These are information publicly released by the United Kingdom. Let us take it with a pinch of salt, because they are not going to tell the truth. In fact I will be more than happy if they purposely lowered the actual numbers.
On the training front, the United Kingdom was the one that took the lead since Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014. They are still leading the charge.
In December 2022, the United States announced that it will train 500 to 800 Ukrainian troops every month. According to the New York Times, The expanded training would emphasize “combined arms” warfare — tight coordination among infantry, artillery, armored vehicles and, when it is available, air support, so that each group is strengthened and protected by the others”.
Taken together, the publicly made announcements indicate Ukraine will be getting at least three battalions worth of highly trained troops every month. I think the west already has the structure in place to offer steady training for Ukrainian troops.
These soldiers are not getting trained to operate on the age old soviet arsenal which Ukraine used at the start of the war. They are going to get their hands on some of the best weapons NATO has in its possession.
Ukrainian commander-in-chief, General Zaluzhnyi, said :
We have made all the calculations — how many tanks, artillery we need and so on and so on. This is what everyone needs to concentrate on right now. May the soldiers in the trenches forgive me, it’s more important to focus on the accumulation of resources right now for the more protracted and heavier battles that may begin next year.
Ukraine always knew what it wanted. This is possibly the first time they have actually got most of their requests granted. An estimated 320 western tanks are headed to Ukraine, along with hundreds of armored vehicles. The United States may have already supplied Ukraine with long range weapons that can reach most of the Russian occupied territory.
Can the west fail from here?
Right now, the west has an excellent opportunity to end the war. As long as President Biden stays committed to Ukraine, Russia will have a difficult time getting out of the logjam it finds itself in. Russian combat power is on the wane, while Ukrainian combat power is on the rise.
There will be no one talking about Biden’s second term, his legislative achievements, the economy, or his fight with Donald Trump, 50 or 100 years from now. There is only one thing that will leave him with a lasting legacy — whether or not Ukraine won the war against Russia. How did he protect liberal democracies from autocratic regimes who joined forces to defeat them in the 21st century?
Biden knows this.
The President’s risky visit to Kyiv could not be viewed any other way. He’s already after his legacy. And he’s going to get it. He set himself up for it when he said the United States would stand by Ukraine no matter what. That should rest the case Europe frequently brings up to confuse itself — support for Ukraine will not be time bound.
In his visit to Kyiv, President Biden broke the only hope Putin had of destroying European Unity.
The Chinese government will be extremely reluctant to enter the war as a weapon supplier to Russia. They will have to consider a lot of variables before taking that decision. Unified sanctions by the United States and Europe can deliver a body blow to the Chinese economy, while also completely re-arranging China’s dominance in the global manufacturing supply chain.
China will be infinitely worried about manufacturing moving to South East Asia.
President Biden has plenty of reasons to support Ukraine, unlike China, which is going to struggle to come out in support of Russia. There are two years before his reelection. He already has substantial amounts of money approved by Congress for Ukraine. He understands he is leaving a legacy on the Ukrainian frontline. I believe Biden has no reason to back down from here.
Since the threat of recession over rising oil and gas prices could have split Europe into multiple camps with each arguing for its own benefit, winter remained Putin’s best hope for breaking European unity. That time came and flew. Europe is not worried about gas anymore because winter is almost over.
In the last 12 months Europe has steadily chipped away at its dependence on Russian oil and gas. “Despite growing exports to Asia, Russian oil and gas revenues fell 50 percent year-on-year overall in 2022, a shortfall Moscow had to make up for in other ways such as by selling its foreign currency reserves.
Revenue could continue to fall along with the price of oil as global markets adjust to the new price cap system and logistical challenges, said Thomas O’Donnell, an external global fellow at the Wilson Center and an instructor at the Free University of Berlin”.
Putin must now raise his third army under economic duress that he did not experience last year. Even if Ukraine President Zelensky wanted to give up land for the sake of stopping the war, I do not believe Ukrainians would allow him to.
The Ukrainians are going to push for a full-scale victory over Russia after all the missiles Mr. Genius launched into apartment buildings.
I am sorry. That came out wrong.
Full scale special victory against Russia.
