Defying Norms: France & Ukraine
Macron’s decisions are a gauntlet for U.S. and German administrations
I realized something yesterday: You can remove French President Emmanuel Macron from politics, but you cannot remove politics from the French President.
I am not complaining; it is a compliment. Roosevelt and Churchill didn’t succeed in their fight against the worst monster the world ever produced by dismissing politics. They did so by embracing it and then using their courage, intelligence, and foresight to protect freedom.
Last night, I began digging to document the actions taken by the French administration after the Munich Security Conference on February 17th, 2024. That was the day when France signaled a public pivot in the global fight against Putin’s imperialist designs.
The French administration recently announced that they would send 78 CAESAR Howitzers to Ukraine. As I continued reading about the CAESAR, I couldn’t help but compare its abilities with those of the US-made HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System).
If you were to plot a skillset graph for HIMARS, firing artillery shells would be at its lowest range. It is a highly capable system that can launch surface-to-surface missiles, such as the MGM-140 ATACMS. However, the US has transformed this high-profile system into a low-profile one for Ukraine.
CAESAR, the French-made self-propelled howitzer, is a modern artillery system that will fulfill its duties with a range of 50 kilometers. Out of curiosity, I wanted to find out how many HIMARS units the Biden administration had provided to Ukraine.
- The United States delivered 39 units.
- France will deliver 78 CAESAR units to Ukraine before the end of this year.
- Exactly, twice the number of artillery units sent by the United States.
- Can’t be a simple coincidence.
They could have given 70. Maybe 80. Perhaps even 100. But they settled on 78. Anyway, I believe the French President is trying to prove a point. Good for him, Europe, France, Ukraine, and actually good for the United States and Germany as well.
The current administrations in America and Germany do not send weapons to Ukraine to win the war. Instead, they send weapons to ensure their survival, while carefully avoiding providing weapons that would enable them to win the war. If you ask them what they are doing, they will immediately respond by asking you take a look at the bill of aid.
But most of this money is being routed to their own defense manufacturers. They send these weapons to Ukraine, then place orders with defense manufacturers, thereby increasing their production capacity, while their own armies receive new replacement weapons.
Of the $68 billion in military and related assistance Congress has approved since Russia invaded Ukraine, almost 90 percent is going to Americans. Aid to Ukraine is not only creating American jobs but also reinvigorating our dangerously atrophied defense industrial base. — Marc A. Thiessen, Washington Post
When global media begins covering the flow of aid, they invariably end up discussing the amount of money both America and Germany spend to help Ukraine. We see the numbers, observe both the nations at the top, and start thinking, “fair enough, they are helping,” and chide ourselves for complaining all the time. But we do not consider the distribution of weapons, what they purposely keep away from Ukraine.
There is nothing wrong with the U.S. and Germany spending money on their own production and counting it as aid to Ukraine. They should do that. How else will weapons ever be produced? The problem lies in the careful choreography of manipulating the distribution of weapons. Both administrations have lists of weapons marked ‘do not give them to Ukraine’ because it will hurt Putin’s feelings.
The surge in orders heading towards French manufacturers demonstrates that Macron has kept his promise. He is procuring top-of-the-line weapons.
One of France’s major weaknesses is that much of its production capacity is not as extensive as one might expect. For instance, France does not presently manufacture SCALP long-range missiles. As reported by the defense magazine Defense et Sécurité Internationale, France had approximately 400 SCALP missiles in its inventory. They are sending Ukraine SCALP missiles from this stockpile. Certainly not a great place to be.
The French administration has tasked MBDA, a European multinational developer and manufacturer of missiles, with resuming production of SCALP missiles, among other requests.
French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu politely warned manufacturing companies in France that the government is not averse to using its powers to compel them into action.
“For the first time, I’m not ruling out using what the law allows the minister and the general directorate for armament to do, which is, if things wouldn’t be going according to plan in terms of production rates and lead times, to requisition or invoke the right of prioritization if necessary,”- Sébastien Lecornu, March 26.
France has called for its defense industry to adopt a “war economy” footing following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and Lecornu has chided MBDA for the time to deliver the Aster missile, fired by the ground-based SAMP/T air-defense system as well as French, Italian and British warships. The pan-European missile maker has announced plans to cut the delay between an Aster order and delivery to 18 months by 2026, from 42 months before 2022.
Asking MBDA subcontractors to prioritize military over civilian orders to boost Aster output “is obviously something we can’t ignore,” Lecornu said. The government is pressuring defense firms to shorten delivery times for anything from MMP anti-tank missiles to 155mm shells for the Caesar howitzer.
Although France is trying to improve its artillery capabilities by aiming for an annual production rate of 100,000 (155mm shells) by 2025, they are significantly behind schedule. While they should persist in increasing their artillery production capacity, this won’t be the primary area where Ukraine will derive the greatest benefit from heightened French support.
The key will lie in the supply of missiles. France has not imposed any limits in that regard. Currently, France is sending 50 AASM Hammer guided bombs every month to Ukraine. Manufacturing output is expected to double, reaching 1,200 units by 2025.
France is also ramping up production of Aster air-defense missiles used by SAMP/T. A ground-based air defense system designed to provide medium to long-range air defense protection against a variety of threats, including aircraft, helicopters, drones, and ballistic missiles.
SAMP/T NG has a detection range of more than 350 kilometers and an intercept range of more than 150 kilometers, and can engage multiple targets at the same time, according to Eurosam. The system uses MBDA’s Aster missile, a 450 kg (992 lb) two-stage intercepter with a length of 4.9 meters (16 ft) that can reach Mach 4.5 and is capable of high G manoeuvres.
A complete SAMP/T NG system includes a radar providing 360-degree coverage, a command-and-control module, and as many as six launchers, each fitted with eight Aster 30 missiles, with a battery typically requiring 20 crew members, according to the manufacturers. Each launcher can fire its eight missiles in about 10 seconds.
So, in terms of capability, the SAMP/T comes very close to the Patriots. However, the problem lies in the insufficient availability of systems worldwide to be immediately sent to Ukraine. Additionally, there is a shortage of interceptors. There are more than enough Patriots and interceptors readily available to be sent to Ukraine tomorrow.
But the countries that possess them are all sitting on their hands, probably because they know the U.S. and Germany have plenty of systems but are unwilling to send them. It’s a very risky game of chicken, yet one that persists.
French President Emmanuel Macron is moving in the right direction. The orders placed by the French administration clearly show that he understands the need to provide long-range attack and defense capabilities for Ukraine. He is aiming for the higher end, which means he will quickly accumulate production costs. With budgetary decisions already made, the French purse is somewhat tight. It may end up becoming a limiting factor in how far he can proceed.
The French President has also made a few moves to relieve the financial pressure on his shoulders. He has proposed European defense bonds, suggesting the issuance of joint European debt to finance defense spending. Expect a host of problems and resistance to arise from Germany. The moment you mention the word “debt,” they tend to run away.
I think this is a good idea. Europe did raise money by issuing common debt during the pandemic. This will relieve the stress on EU finances while ensuring that money continues to flow to the right places.
But a better decision would be to seize the Russian assets held inside Europe. The United States has already signaled its interest in claiming that money. The UK has been urging Europe to do this for a very long time. It was France, Germany, Italy, and to some extent, Belgium, that were hesitant about this idea. There is $300 billion on the table. Why raise debt when you can make Putin pay for the mess he created?
France is just getting started
There are still plenty of things to be done. The French President is moving in the right direction, and he is also considering finances for the long term. He is not repeating the mistake the U.S. administration made by asking the congress for only $50 billion last year to help Ukraine and then drafting a one-year lend-lease. They budgeted for a year’s worth of funding, then supplied weapons that would prolong the conflict beyond that timeframe.
So far, Macron has refused to go down the path of overconfidence. He is aiming for the high end of the defense spectrum, with a clear focus on urging missile manufacturers to step up.
There isn’t much the Russian President and his axis of supporters can do once the French manufacturing capacity kicks into full gear. As you can see, money has already been sent to the defense manufacturers. These are highly specialized weapons, and it will take some time to ramp up production. But ramp up they will. Once the numbers start flowing, consider the decision to provide 50 units of AASM Hammer missiles to Ukraine every month; it will have a significant impact on Ukraine’s combat power.
Why?
Because these are the types of weapons America and Germany have refused to supply due to fear — weapons that Ukraine either had very little of or never had — Putin should pack his bags and run before his escape route gets completely shut down. Alternatively, he can rely on his online army and MAGA supporters to continue spreading rumors about the French President.
