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Democrats in a Solid Position to Win the Senate
2022 Midterm Status Review — July
There is no way to talk about the midterms without mentioning pollsters. But don’t worry, pollsters generally do better when there is no presidential election to focus on. Generic congressional ballot polls in 2018 showed the Democrats ahead of the Republicans by 8.6 points.
House Democrats won by 8.6 points.
It is extremely likely that pollsters will get their numbers right in the 2022 midterms. On July 29th, polling for the generic congressional ballot showed the Republicans ahead by 0.2 points.
It’s a dead heat.
As we approach the election, the polling averages tend to run away from the ruling party. The White House tends to lose support as pollsters interview more likely-to-vote Americans.
I believe that trend may be broken this time because of the Republican party, Donald Trump, the January 6th Committee and the Supreme Court’s decision to rile up women. Inflation reduction act of $700 billion can also be added to the list, but I will hold it at zero for now.
Let’s get one important line item out of the way before we begin.
