Devil’s Final Play in Ukraine
Ways to Thwart Their Efforts
Every once in a while, I try to dine with the devil to see things from their perspective, especially when the situation at the Kremlin becomes exceptionally complex. This has happened a few times before, but those occasions are dwarfed by what the Kremlin has endured from November 2024 to January 2025.
I ended my story yesterday with the following statement:
Putin appears cornered, with no attractive options for starting negotiations.
He is visibly frightened, and his exit doors are jammed.
That clearly requires me to examine the situation from the other side. We must consider what options Putin still has and what the West can do to counter them.
Option 1: North Korean Manpower
Speaking to the European Parliament in November 2024, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Vladimir Putin had brought 11,000 North Korean troops to fight Ukraine, with the potential for this number to reach 100,000.
My own assessment of the ground requirements was actually higher. Given the rate of losses and the goal to push Ukraine out of Kursk, I estimated that Putin would need closer to 200,000 troops from North Korea. Therefore, I was not particularly surprised when Zelensky mentioned the possibility of the North Korean contingent increasing to 100,000.
The DPRK did send an initial batch of 12,000 troops to Ukraine in November 2024. However, for reasons unclear, the additional deployments I expected from North Korea did not materialize. It is plausible that the EU exerted pressure on Chinese President Xi Jinping to leverage his influence and prevent further North Korean deployments.
Indeed, reports indicate that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz directly addressed this issue with Xi Jinping during the G20 summit in Brazil. It appears their discussions were effective, as North Korea refrained from sending additional forces to Ukraine.
If Putin is looking for a way out, securing 200,000 troops from Kim Jong Un could provide it. This would alleviate the need to continuously draw 2,000 men daily from the Russian workforce, a practice that is exacerbating the severe labor shortage already plaguing Russia’s economy. If this drain continues, Russia’s economic stability will continue to remain at the risk of collapse.
The EU must remain vigilant about North Korean troop movements and maintain ongoing dialogue with the Chinese premier to ensure that no further DPRK manpower support is provided to Russia in the Ukraine conflict, regardless of how dire the situation becomes for Russia in the coming months.
Option 2: Persuade Trump to lift the sanctions imposed by the US Treasury.
The sanctions imposed by the U.S. Treasury on Russia have severely limited Russia’s access to international financial markets. Russian corporations face increased borrowing costs and a reduction in potential international partners. Trade has taken a massive hit, and the market for Russian products continues to shrink.
In June last year, the Bank of China suspended operations with Russian lenders sanctioned by the United States to avoid secondary sanctions. Therefore, every time the Treasury imposes sanctions on Russian entities, their access to finance and trade in China and India takes a massive hit. Gradually, the U.S. Treasury has been tightening its noose around Russian corporations. This has now reached a point where the flow of cash between Russia and its Asian partners has been severely arrested.
Putin cannot continue under this stress for much longer. The only way to escape this predicament is by persuading Trump to remove a large number of Russian entities from the sanctions list. This would allow money to flow more freely, easing the financial stress on Russian corporations.
Zelensky is the only person who can prevent this. It really depends on how Trump, influenced by his perceptions of Zelensky and Putin, chooses to act. He will not back what he perceives as a losing side. Currently, he believes Putin is losing and also feels that Ukraine is receptive to his influence. If Zelensky can keep Trump in his current stance and he maintains the sanctions for another three to six months, Putin will run out of funds to continue the war in the second half of 2025.
Lifting the sanctions won’t necessarily mean Russia will win the war; it would merely give Putin an extension. When you are on top, you must ensure the fight is brought to an end. Never allow a reprieve. Sanctions will remain crucial to winning this war, and if Ukraine wants a swift victory, then Trump must be persuaded to maintain and even tighten the sanctions further. That would be even more effective than him sending weapons to Ukraine.
Option 3: The Hail-Mary Pass.
This is probably Putin’s likely course of action, as options one and two are not fully within his control — this one is. He can’t dislodge Ukraine from Russian territories (Kursk) due to the immense manpower required.
Despite months of effort to capture Chasiv Yar, success has eluded them. Similarly, their campaign to take Kupiansk has dragged on for three years; recent advances towards the town have been minor and insufficient for capturing it. Putin needs to secure a significant victory, and Pokrovsk appears attainable.
He must muster as much force as possible and direct it towards Pokrovsk. If he can maneuver his troops into the town, then, in the final moments, he might call Trump and request a ceasefire.
However, this may not be as effective as hoped. Trump has demonstrated keen awareness of Putin’s weakened position, and might dismiss any claims from Putin that he has achieved the “greatest victory on earth” and deserves the “greatest deal on earth.”
Nevertheless, some measure of success on the ground before making that call could provide leverage. Unfortunately, this remains Putin’s only viable strategy at this point.
Thanks for reading. Now, more than ever, it’s crucial to make critical information about Ukraine accessible. That’s why I’ve made 351 stories available to the public in 2024, including this one.
