EU Sends an Open Warning to Destabilizer Putrban
Some one is in a right but tight spot
“We hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day … so we have to take into account that Vladimir Putin might even attack a NATO country one day. Our experts expect a period of five to eight years in which this could be possible, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorious sent a ominous warning about Moscow’s intentions in a recent interview.
He was not alone.
Two weeks ago, Sweden’s commander-in-chief General Micael Bydén asked his country to “prepare themselves mentally” for a war with Russia. We can go on expanding this list to include statements from Poland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. Eastern Europe is well aware of the threat Kremlin poses to their security.
All the nations that share a border with Russia are ringing the alarm bells as hard as they can. Most of these nations were already in NATO when the war started. The ones that were not are lining up to join. But why does it always have to be Turkey and Hungary throwing the wrench into anyone who is planning to join NATO? Why does it always have to be Hungary that is against helping Ukraine?
James Sherr, Associate Fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Program of Chatham House, has a theory: “Victor Orban flirts with the devil because he sees no angels in the room and no evidence that anyone will stand up to him. Recep Tayyip Erdogan undermines sanctions because he has lost faith in the resolution of the West and is unwilling to tie Türkiye’s interests to the losers.”
In December 2023, Victor Orban blocked a €50 billion four-year funding package to Ukraine. According to EU rules, all 27 member nations have to agree on a bill. A single ‘no’ is enough to get everything back to the starting line.
This is worse than the US Senate rule that asks for 60 votes in a 100-member chamber. In a divided chamber such as the one in the United States, nothing gets passed due to this more than the majority requirement. EU has to do away with this ‘all of us in one direction’ rule. It has its benefits. I don’t deny that. But what use will that serve if it allows the destruction of a democracy and sets the world on fire?
The Orban Blackmail
Victor Orban has been the leader of Hungary for nearly two decades. There is only one way for this to happen. The EU was not happy that the Orban administration is expanding the powers of his administration. It wanted to slow down its progress towards a quasi-dictatorship.
In December 2022, the Commission opted to withhold approximately €22 billion in EU cohesion funds designated to assist economically disadvantaged EU member countries in bolstering their economies. To gain access to these funds, Budapest was required to fulfill specific conditions, among which was the implementation of a series of measures aimed at enhancing the independence of the judiciary.
Orban responded by pushing back at anything that came with NATO or Ukraine in the bill. Last year, several EU nations wanted to start the long-drawn process to bring Ukraine into the EU.
In December 2023, The European Commission unblocked €10.2 billion in frozen EU cohesion funds earmarked for Hungary, one day before European leaders are set to discuss new aid to Ukraine and the opening of accession negotiations for Kyiv.
“After a thorough assessment, and several exchanges with the Hungarian government, the Commission considers that Hungary has taken the measures it committed to take,” allowing the EU’s executive to free up the funds, the Commission said in a press release.
Victor Orban allowed the accession negotiations to begin but blocked the four-year €50 billion aid package for Ukraine. For weeks, EU leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have tried their best to bring Victor Orban to their side, but he is refusing to budge.
The EU may have finally decided to call his bluff. This week, the “EU Parliament voted (345–104) for a resolution that condemns the deliberate, continuous, and systematic efforts of the Hungarian government to undermine the founding values of the EU. The resolution also calls for stripping Hungary of its voting rights at the European Council.”
In a vote Thursday at the European Parliament, a majority of MEPs backed a nonbinding resolution calling on the other 26 EU countries’ governments to use a sub-clause in the EU treaties “to take action and to determine whether Hungary has committed serious and persistent breaches of EU values.”
Part of the hesitancy from the EU for not taking this step earlier may have come from their desire to show unity, at a time when Putin so desperately wants to tell the Russians that the West is not united and they can prevail in the long war. They are still trying to pass this bill unanimously and with Hungary’s signature.
But sometimes, enough is enough. You need to know, which one is better. Giving in to blackmail, is that worth it? Is it worth it for projecting an aura of unity? Whatever happened to doing the right thing irrespective of the difficulty?
Victor Orban is now standing at the edge. In one go, he may lose the veto he has, the only tool of power he has within the EU, and also lose access to EU funding for Hungary. Money and power could be lost in one go. Maybe he should show his loyalty to Putin by letting go of both.
Dictators and wannabe dictators are more than likely to fall into the trap of overestimating their ability. It won’t be the first time in the world where we witness a wannabe dictator taking the worst step and boasting to his friends how great a decision-maker he is.
Let there be no doubt, the EU’s first priority will be to project unity. So, they will more than likely engage in the dance-off with Victor Orban. I believe this is not a good idea when dealing with friends of dictators. It will work only in patches, but way too risky and unnecessary turmoil.
Why boxing Putin’s buddy is important?
It is more than the money. Europe’s self-imposed requirement to produce 27 vote unity at all costs is playing into the hands of the Russian president Vladimir Putin. All he needs is one or two friends to tie up the European Union. His escalating rhetoric in recent times is solely aimed at weakening the western resolve to support Ukraine.
If he manages to cut off the financial support to Ukraine from the European Union for an additional eight months, and subsequently, if Donald Trump is elected in November, he stands a real chance of accomplishing his primary goal: diminishing the influx of aid to Ukraine.
With Donald Trump’s victory in the Iowa caucus this week, the stakes have risen significantly, creating a plausible scenario where Europe may find itself charting an independent course against Russia should he reclaim the presidency. The EU aid package for Ukraine is a very important step that the EU must take in order to get things under its control and reduce its dependency on the United States.
If Trump secures victory, he is likely to exert every effort to support Vladimir Putin’s agenda. The responsibility to curb such actions would rest with the Senate, as Trump would lack the authority to dismantle NATO, a power already stripped from the President by the US Senate. However, Trump could impede US aid to Ukraine, bringing all assistance to an abrupt halt.
Picture a scenario where Putin, still engaged in conflict with Ukraine, commands his forces to seize the three Baltic states, cutting through the Suwałki Corridor and deploying nuclear-powered submarines to block access from the sea. Donald Trump sitting in the oval office vetoes all efforts by the GOP Senate to rescue Europe.
The Baltics could be in extreme trouble. NATO will be in trouble. Ukraine will be in trouble. EU should not allow one vote to decide the future of 26 nations.
