Europe Can Sink Putin
All roads lead to Damascus
The Ukrainian Directorate of Intelligence reported yesterday that Russia will move its troops, army, and mercenaries from Africa to Syria. I believe they will. Putin doesn’t have much choice in the matter.
“For Russia, Syria had been a success story, a demonstration of its ability to influence events in the Middle East. Moscow has invested significant time and effort in Syria since 2015, and it will therefore do what it can to prevent the government’s collapse. Amid the war in Ukraine, defeat in Syria or even wider rebel gains would be a blow to the Kremlin’s credibility and a victory for its adversaries. The offensive has thus opened a new front for Russia, one that will demand additional weapons and resources”.
Putin is not in a position to send additional troops already fighting for their lives in Ukraine. With Turkey blocking exit and entry from the Black Sea, access to Syria through the Mediterranean has become a significant challenge for Russian forces. They are now reaching Syria by taking a circuitous route around Europe. Assad doesn’t have much time before his position becomes untenable. The Russian troops in Africa are Putin’s only viable option to maintain his foothold in the Middle East.
Syria is now set to start draining Russia’s resources in Africa. Putin will redeploy African-based troops to help Assad shore up his defenses and prevent further retreats. Once those defenses are stabilized, he will likely escalate attacks on civilian populations in Aleppo to make governance impossible for the rebels. The aim will then shift to a counter-offensive against rebel forces. This is the result of allowing Russia to target civilian populations with impunity since 2000. They disregard human lives, confident that the West will offer little more than token responses. Mistakes have been made by the West in the past, and they continue. However, we must stop fixating on past errors, as today and tomorrow demand our focus.
Putin now faces an additional front opening up for him in Syria. I hope Europe takes a cold, pragmatic view of this situation. Trump might intervene in Ukraine, but how far he would go in Syria is anyone’s guess. There is virtually zero chance that if Europe adopts an offensive stance in Syria, Trump would intervene to stop them. Peace talks in Ukraine will take time. They won’t conclude in two weeks or even two months. This process will drag on. If Europe is smart, it will leverage the situation in Syria to siphon off as much Russian manpower and resources as possible, effectively weakening their position and destroying their capabilities.
The focus must shift from conflict management in Syria to conflict resolution. Turkey would be more than willing to support such an effort. So, Europe must act decisively and get the job done. However, Putin’s problems are not only escalating beyond Russia’s borders; they are also intensifying within Russia itself.
Multiple reports indicate that the Russian central bank is set to increase the interest rate from 21% to 25%. While the exact increase is uncertain, I am 100% confident it is going up. The sharp depreciation of the ruble in November is set to fuel inflation, as Russia still imports a significant amount of essential goods. These imports will bring inflation with them. Raising the interest rate is the central bank’s only tool to combat inflation. It may not be effective, but they are going to try.
This move will likely trigger another wave of corporate bankruptcies as credit becomes even harder to access. To make matters worse, the winter harvest has become extremely burdensome, with only 31% of crops in good condition compared to 74% last year.
Ukraine is certainly not complaining, and Russia’s dire economic condition might be the reason why Ukraine is holding back some of its homemade weapons. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced that the Ukrainian Palianytsia drone missile has entered mass production. Until now, though still a rumor, there has been only one instance of chatter suggesting that Ukraine used this drone missile. Since early this year, there is evidence that the R-360 Neptune cruise missile has been used in the field. Ukraine has announced that they have extended the missile’s range, but so far, there is no confirmation of its use in large numbers.
What Ukraine has been doing instead is relying on Western-supplied long-range weapons such as Britain’s Storm Shadow, France’s SCALP, and the U.S.-made ATACMS, while stockpiling their homemade long-range weapons, including drones. They are also holding back some of their well-equipped brigades.
There are pros and cons to this approach, but the reasoning is clear: they are mitigating risks. Ukraine does not know what the future holds and wants to avoid being caught begging for aid, as happened in the latter half of last year when American aid dried up, leading to avoidable battlefield losses. They barely scraped through that period, which only changed after their loss of Avdiivka in February 2024. Following that defeat, the United States finally approved the Ukraine aid package and resumed support after a six-month pause.
By accepting short-term pain, Ukraine is building up its deterrence. Its combat power is growing due to the weapons stockpile. In contrast, Russia is experiencing the opposite scenario, now entirely dependent on North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un’s support to continue the war.
Putin doesn’t have much time. If Europe increases pressure on Syria, they could at least bring his Middle East and Africa operations to an end. They wouldn’t need to send troops; they could instead leverage intelligence and bureaucracy to ensure the rebels gain the upper hand.
An irreversible upper hand.
Every victory matters, but a win in Syria would be a significant one for the entire world.
Thanks for reading. The war is getting closer to the end. Now, more than ever, it’s crucial to make critical information about Ukraine accessible. That’s why I’ve made 340 stories available to the public in 2024, including this one.
