Few factors.

1. AZ will be a three way fight.

2. As an incumbent with name recognition, Sinema will eat some democratic votes. IN the chart I attached --the second half of the article --you can see sinema still holding 19% of democratic support.

3. If the GOP nominates a highly qualified candidate, (i dont think they will because the az GOP is overrun by looney toons. But I will never underestimate Mitch McConnell. He almost toppled Catherine cotez Masto in Nevada.

Now, why would a great GOP candidate beat the democratic candidate? Because sinema will eat some of the dem votes. And independents are still open to backing Republicans-

1. Wisconsin (ron johnson vs barnes)

2. Chris Sununu won in NH despite Maggie Hasan winning

3. Brian Kemp trounced Stacey Abrams despite Warnock winning the Senate race twice.

There is one candidate who concerns me the most. That is former governor of AZ.

If AZ becomes Doug Ducey vs Sinema vs Gallego, I would place my bet on Ducey.

It will be a disaster. And I hope that does not happen.

Thanks