First Time Ever: Ukraine Brings Down a Russian Jet from a Boat
Caught in desperation to respond, the Russians attempt to teach Turkish President Erdogan a lesson. Bad mistake, Kremlin. Bad mistake.
Wait, what did they just do?
I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve had the “Wait, what did they just do?” reaction to something the Ukrainians have pulled off. The latest addition to this ever-growing list is Ukrainian special forces shooting down a Russian Su-30 fighter jet from a boat.
Armies around the world use MANPADS (Man-Portable Air-Defence Systems). The U.S. Army uses Stingers. The British use Starstreak. The French use Mistral. The Russians have the Igla. Ukraine has received various types of shoulder-fired weapons from Western partners to target Russian fighter jets.
Shooting down a fighter jet with a man-portable air-defense system (MANPADS) is not new. It’s a common response on both the frontlines and in the rear. However, there’s a reason these systems are often referred to as surface-to-air missiles. Carrying a 14kg Starstreak on your shoulder and firing it from the ground is no easy task.
On the ground, soldiers must visually spot the jet, take assistance from radars if possible, align the MANPADS sights with the fast-moving fighter jet, lock onto the target by activating the missile’s seeker head, and press the launch button once the missile locks onto the target.
These aren’t slow-moving cargo planes; they’re fast-moving fighter jets. A soldier may have only a few seconds to respond. It’s not an easy feat to accomplish from the ground. But Ukraine managed to do it from a boat — and even released a video of their successful hit.
Innovations aside, the hit, the location where it happened, and the manner in which it occurred are humiliating for the Russian air force.
Reports indicate that the fighter jet was brought down near Cape Tarkhankut, suggesting that Ukrainian boats are patrolling the western Black Sea all the way near the Crimean coast. This is a side effect of Ukraine containing the Black Sea Fleet and restricting the Russian navy to the eastern part of the Black Sea.
Fearful of naval drones and targeted missile strikes on Crimea, the Russian navy is avoiding the western Black Sea. They are no longer patrolling the area, allowing Ukraine to take control of that section. If a Russian patrol ship encounters a pack of Ukrainian naval drones in the deep sea, the results could be disastrous. Russia has already lost more than 30% of its Black Sea Fleet’s capacity. As a result, they have reduced their risk, allowing Ukraine to gain control over the area.
This was bad enough, but now Ukraine has figured out how to target Russian jets from boats. Undoubtedly, Ukraine will regularly patrol the western Black Sea with soldiers armed with MANPADS, which will seriously limit Russian aviation operations in the region.
When news broke of the Russian fighter jet being hit from a boat, the first thing that crossed my mind was that this provides additional protection for Odessa, the key port from which Ukrainian grain is shipped to the world. If the Russian air force begins avoiding the western Black Sea, they won’t be able to approach Ukrainian ports to fire their weapons.
They need to fire from a distance, and the longer a missile stays in the air, the easier it becomes for air defense systems to intercept it. By restricting the Black Sea Fleet to the eastern Black Sea, Ukraine has now innovated its way to restricting the Russian air force as well.
Naturally, the Russian high command was furious — and rightfully so. However, their subsequent actions were among the most foolish I’ve seen in this war. Their choice to escalate was partly driven by the fact that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan had already stirred up a hornet’s nest by supporting Ukraine.
“Our support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence is unwavering,” Erdoğan said in a video message to the Fourth Crimea Platform Leaders Summit on Wednesday, Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency reported. “The return of Crimea to Ukraine is a requirement of international law.”
Upset by Turkish President Erdogan’s remark that Crimea belongs to Ukraine, the Kremlin tried to send a message to both Ukraine and Turkey by successfully targeting a Turkish cargo ship using their long-range bombers.
The problem is, Turkey’s President Erdogan is not a Western leader — he’s a quasi-dictator in his own right. He controls the passage in and out of the Black Sea, and he will find a way to respond. For years, he has played both Russia and the West.
The news of the Turkish vessel being taken out by Russian bombers would have spread like wildfire in Turkey. Erdogan cannot afford to let go of his strongman image. Of all people, Putin should have known this well. Perhaps he should have called Erdogan after his comments on Crimea and applied pressure in less visible ways.
Instead, the Kremlin took the high-visibility route, which is sure to provoke a response from Erdogan. Putin needs allies now more than ever. If there was ever a worst time to create a mess, it would be now. His army’s fate is hanging by a thread due to the shortage of heavy weapons. He’s likely running low on artillery barrels; why else would he take the risk of acquiring Fath-360 missiles from Iran, which only have a range of 120 km? They won’t help him hit rear positions — they’re frontline and near-frontline weapons. Meanwhile, he’s facing a Western world increasingly open to relaxing restrictions on long-range weapons targeting Russian assets inside Russia.
After waiting nearly a month, Russian armed forces are finally starting to respond adequately to Ukraine’s incursions near Kursk. But Ukraine isn’t going to complain, as moving the fight from Ukrainian to Russian territory is a core objective of Ukraine’s Kursk operations. The Kremlin’s initial stance that the Kursk incursions were no big deal has clearly failed.
One by one, things are falling apart for Putin, so why on earth would he risk drawing the ire of Turkish President Erdogan? It seems that bullying has become the defining identity of the Russian armed forces — they can’t help but respond impulsively. Sometimes, you need to lie low, stay patient, and avoid overreaching.
But the Kremlin seems incapable of that. A very bad mistake.
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