Forget the 3 AM alarm. The Trump campaign must ring all the alarms.

Harris crosses the critical 50% mark, while Biden never surpassed 47% against Trump.

It’s easy to forget, but it’s true: Iowa used to be a swing state. Obama won it twice. The state voted blue for a long time. In 2016, I thought Hillary was steadily inching closer to victory until the Des Moines Register, a well-known pollster I respect, showed a four-point lead for Trump. That was on October 8, 2016.

After the ugly, vile, and whatever sickness you can name that Trump brought to his 2016 campaign, that poll was a huge surprise to me. One poll could be an anomaly, but it was also the Des Moines Register, so I kept an eye on Iowa for the rest of the race. Instead of falling back, Trump actually padded his lead in the run-up to November.

The final poll from the Des Moines Register, released in November 2016, had Trump ahead by 7 points. He ended up winning the state by a massive 9-point margin. Remember when I told you to focus not on polling numbers but on the trendline? This is why. Trump went from a 4-point to a 7-point lead before Election Day. The final results showed that he maintained the momentum on the election day.

He won the state by 9 points.