France Ties the Kremlin and China in Knots

A red line that existed for no reason is finally done in

It was a bit nerve-wracking, to put it simply. When French President Emmanuel Macron stepped up to the plate in February this year, I wanted to believe him. At the same time, I had my doubts. He said the right things, but he is, after all, a politician.

The “will he or won’t he” question still lingers around his words. It might remain for some time before eventually fading away. The French have taken a monumental step forward, one that goes far beyond weapons, aid, and everything else. This decision will force allies, as well as Moscow and Beijing, to recalibrate their positions.

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi signed an agreement yesterday that will allow French military instructors to train Ukrainian soldiers in Ukraine.

As soon as the deal was announced, Russian ultranationalists quickly erased the red lines. According to them, the red lines document does not include foreign experts training Ukrainian soldiers in Ukraine.

Red lines only exist in the minds of a few Western officials. They sit in their windowless rooms, concocting their own arguments and counter-arguments. They draw their own red lines and complicate the global response to Kremlin’s naked aggression.

Anyways.

The political impact of the decision made by the French administration will be worth much more than the short-term benefits Ukrainian armed forces will reap from it.

The on-the-ground impact of training Ukrainian troops within Ukraine itself cannot be overstated.

Training for Ukrainian troops mainly occurs in far-off locations such as Norway, the United Kingdom, Romania, the United States, Germany and a few other locations. However, logistical challenges, travel constraints, and capacity limitations hinder the swift deployment of trained troops to the frontline. Establishing a robust training program within Ukraine itself would streamline this process significantly, ensuring a steady flow of highly trained soldiers to bolster the frontlines effectively.

With experienced foreign military experts providing real-time advice and guidance, Ukrainian troops will gain invaluable support as they navigate new and challenging situations. Just their presence on the ground enhances decision-making and boosts morale, crucial elements in any military operation.

It might seem counter-intitutive to train Ukrainian soldiers in the war zone. But training typically occurs in secure areas away from the front lines, with stringent security measures in place. By investing in training on the ground, foreign military experts will contribute significantly to bolstering the overall capacity of Ukraine’s military.

On the ground training not only enhances combat effectiveness but also ensures the sustainability and expansion of capabilities for the future.

Currently, one of Ukraine’s most pressing challenges is mobilization(recruitment) and subsequent training of its troops. Russia’s continuous increase in infantry count aims to mask its weaknesses in heavy weaponry, with Soviet-era stockpiles nearing depletion. As a result, Ukraine cannot rely solely on a well equipped and lean force to counter the Russian army; a substantial and well-trained force is imperative.

Because time is not very supportive of Ukraine in this regard. They need to refill their ranks and they need to do it fast. There will be a small window of opportunity for them to break the back of the Russian forces before the end of this year. Putin is going to seek ceasefire. He will make an attempt to freeze the frontlines. Ukraine has to complicate his move. Time is of essense.

Ukraine’s manpower shortage is one of the main reasons that prompted Russia to even think about opening up a new front in the north. So, unless Ukraine mobilizes fast, trains them fast, and gets the well trained ground forces to the frontline fast, they are going to keep facing new incursions.

Either they take the attack to the Russians, are risk being under attack. That is the only way things will move from here.

Attack or be attacked.

France’s decision will undoubtedly alleviate Ukraine’s training challenges. Moreover, its ripple effect will reverberate across Europe. For nearly two and a half years, the Baltic Nations, Poland, and even the United Kingdom found themselves constrained due to the Biden administration’s influence behind the scenes.

How do you send tanks to Ukraine when the Biden administration keeps saying no, we can’t give heavy weapons? How do you send fighter jets to Ukraine when the German administration says we are not ready to talk about jets? How do you send your experts to Ukraine when America and Germany keep saying no boots on the ground? The smaller nations have no choice but to keep their decision to themselves.

That line. The no western boots on the ground line, is the one that was broken yesterday.

Even this is an extremely cautious decision by President Macron and his team. Think about it: Ukraine has been on one knee for almost three weeks, asking the West for permission to strike targets inside Russia. The least the West could have done was to relax its rules and allow Ukraine to attack the Russian troops stationed in the Russian territory of Belgorad Oblast, where the Russian armed forces’ northern grouping is amassing itself

President Macron could have taken the microphone and told Zelensky, “Go ahead, use the French manufactured SCALP missiles and the AASM Hammer Glide bombs to hit anywhere you want.” But he did not do that. And I think he probably will never do that. The reason is, you don’t want to break coalition politics; you want to bend it.

You don’t want to break it.

So, instead of forcing his way into a topic that had the potential to break the coalition, Macron chose to take a tangential approach to move things forward. He has loosened the restrictions for any country that wants to send its troops to Ukraine. It is a baby step, if you want to call it that, but a step that sets the tone for a brighter future. It strengthens the bond between Ukraine and France.

It also sends a huge message to Chinese Premier Xi Jinping. China does a whole lot of business with France.

• China is France’s largest trading partner in Asia.
• France is China’s third-largest trading partner within the European Union.
• In 2022, France imported $51.8 billion worth of goods from China.

If Russians storm a training facility run by French experts and kill a few French soldiers with Chinese weapons, won’t that hurt Premier Xi’s trading volumes with France? How is he going to explain that to Macron when they meet next? So, Xi will tell Macron that we are not sending lethal weapons to Moscow, only to have Macron show him the pieces of Chinese weapons to his face.

Not going to happen.

What will Xi do, when Estonia, Poland, France, the United Kingdom, Latvia, Lithuania, and the Netherlands have their experts training Ukrainian soldiers in Ukraine? Will he keep sending lethal weapons to Putin, risking his cushy trade deals with these nations, or will he tell Putin, “Sorry mate”?

That is the political impact of Macron’s decision. It brings Ukraine closer to Europe and creates a gap between the no-limits friendship between Russia and China.

A master stroke.

Of all the redlines drawn by the West, not sending military experts to Ukraine was the worst. It is one of the lowest hanging fruits. The United States and the Soviet Union had a huge number of foreign expert presence in South Vietnam and North Vietnam in the 1960s and 1970s. This included military advisors, civilian specialists in various fields such as engineering, logistics, communications, air defense, and medical personnel.

Experts on the ground was the norm.

It should always be the norm.

But some genius in the Western apparatus changed this decades-long status quo and introduced a new policy: the West will only provide outside support to a democratic nation under attack by a dictator. And who is paying the cost of this decision? Ukraine. And if this cancerous decision is left to metastasize, someday all our grandchildren will be paying the price.

I am so freaking glad that the new policy introduced by this genius has been stashed to the wayside. It is a dangerous precedent. One that is capable of driving us into an uncessary arms race.

One by one, all the many different red lines drawn up by the West are being erased. As the French moved to change the status quo, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly moved to pile pressure on Western leaders to relax their restrictions.

The NATO Parliamentary Assembly adopted a declaration in which it called to allow Ukraine to strike russia with Western weapons The declaration was approved by the majority of more than 200 legislators from all 32 countries of the Alliance.

It is just a declaration, and it will have no direct effect on the states or force them to make a decision. However, it will generate headlines and apply pressure on Western leaders to respond. It will also force them to discuss a topic that some of them do not want to address.

The pressure continues to mount on the West to relax the restrictions that forces Ukraine to stay within their border and not take the attack to enemy positions. Unfortunately, France and the United Kingdom cannot do much in this regard. It is a decision that can only be reversed by the Biden administration. Let’s hope France injected a small dose of courage into their discussions.

I feel a lot relieved today to see the French President is moving in the right direction. Decisions matter. This may feel like a tiny dot in the larger scheme of things. It is not. It is huge. It is one of those decisions that will shape the future of the entire democratic world.

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