French President’s Gamble Against Putin is Working
Europe is rallying behind President Emmanuel Macron
French President Emmanuel Macron’s call to erase all self-imposed redlines regarding the Western response to Putin’s naked aggression has brought forth an ally: a man who is extremely difficult to engage in argument over NATO and other rules governing militaristic engagement.
Petr Pavel, the President of the Czech Republic.
Before his presidency, President Pavel served as the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee from 2015 to 2018. Before that he was the Chief of the General Staff of the Czech Armed Forces from 2012 to 2015.
He is someone who possesses a deep understanding of NATO and the international rule of law. It’s challenging to debate him on topics where his expertise surpasses that of many other political leaders leading European nations.
In an interview with Czech Television, President Petr Pavel stated that NATO troops can engage in support activities directly within Ukrainian territory without breaching any international regulations.
“From the point of view of international law and the UN Charter, there would be nothing to prevent NATO member states’ troops — as well as civilians, for example — from assisting in the work in Ukraine,” Pavel said.
According to President Pavel, “helping to train and maintain equipment in a sovereign country is not combat. Even if there is a training mission on its (Ukrainian) territory, it is not a violation of any international rule. And it is up to us what form of assistance we choose to provide to Ukraine, as long as we stay within that limit of non-combat engagement.”
Remember Vietnam, Mr. Putin?
The Soviet Union played a huge role in the Vietnam War by providing military aid, equipment, and economic support to North Vietnam, which was at war with South Vietnam and its ally, the United States. Soviet military advisors provided training to North Vietnamese soldiers that included various aspects of military tactics, strategy, weapons handling, maintenance, and logistics.
“From 1955 to 1960, Moscow sent 1,344 Soviet specialists to North Vietnam of which 1,088 received Friendship Medals from North Vietnamese government. A Vietnamese historian Le Van Thinh reported a slightly higher figure at 1,547 Soviet specialists for the same period”.
Soviet advisors worked closely with North Vietnamese commanders to provide guidance and expertise in planning military operations, coordinating troop movements, and implementing strategies to counter enemy advances. They were on the ground.
Since the Russian President never wastes an opportunity to selectively remind us of history, we can follow in his footsteps. Sometimes, it’s fair to learn dancing from the devil. We cannot apply one set of rules to the Soviet Union and another to the rest of the world. After all, it’s the Soviet Union Mr. Putin aims to resurrect. Therefore, Europe is saying, ‘Sure, we can take a page from the Soviet Union’s workbook in North Vietnam and apply it in Ukraine.’
Size Matters. Timing matters.
I am still struggling to come to terms with the evolution of French President Emmanuel Macron’s character arc. Something clearly snapped, but he has gone too far down the road to turn back. Moreover, there are enormous political benefits for him to reap simply by staying on the anti-evil course he is on.
After violently shaking up the status-quo by calling for deployment of European troops on the ground in Ukraine, the French President called the leaders of French parliamentary parties for a meeting at the Elysée Palace to explain.
During the meeting Macron suggested the possibility of Russia breaking through Ukrainian lines. He then presented a map illustrating potential routes to Kyiv and Odesa. Macron told them that in such an event, France would not be constrained by “red lines.”
Kyiv, I understand. But Odesa?
There is reason why the French President Circled Odessa.
It was no accident. Moldova is Putin’s fall back to protect his throne. If his imperial conquest to subdue Ukraine fails, he will try to capture parts of Moldova and present it as a victory to the Russians. Efforts to prepare this fall back has been on a full swing over the last several weeks.
In November 2023, Putin delivered a lengthy speech on Russian identity. In it, he defined the “Russkiy Mir” as the Ancient Rus’, a definition that includes the territory of Moldova, including Transnistria.
Transnistria, located on the eastern edge of Moldova, is a breakaway region where pro-Russian administrators are urging Putin to intervene and annex the territory. It is the exact replica of the story we heard from the Kremlin before invading Georgia. The story we head from the Kremlin before they invaded Crimea and Ukraine.
Moldova is Vladimir Putin’s fall back, just in case he loses his bearings in Ukraine.
So, it’s clear that French President Emmanuel Macron was not joking.
Attendees of the meeting said that Macron had elaborated on his concept of “strategic ambivalence” aimed at keeping Moscow guessing. According t to Macron since Vladimir Putin has no boundaries, the West had inadvertently given him an edge by imposing and “interiorising” its own limits.
Every democratically elected leader has to be concerned about the opinion of the electorate, which means they need to keep an eye on the opposition. The ‘no more redlines’ stance French President Emmanuel Macron has taken is a political masterstroke. Macron knew there is only one way the opposition will react to his aggressive posture, and they certainly did.
Jordan Bardella, the President of French right wing party Rassemblement National, said threatening to send French soldiers “to fight a Nuclear power like Russia is irresponsible and extremely dangerous for world peace”
The leader of the left, Fabien Roussel said that Macron was “ready to engage in a bellicose escalation which would be very dangerous.”
Macron wasted no time in painting both the right and the left with the same brush. He told journalists that he hoped this debate would “make it clear” which political forces in France supported Ukraine and which supported Russia.
The Govt spokeswoman, Prisca Thevenot, said it is “quite evident” that Le Pen, unlike Macron, is not “committed to Russia’s defeat.”
OUCH!
Europeans, including the French, the Germans, the Dutch, and almost everyone on the continent except for a very small minority, have never really held a favorable opinion about Vladimir Putin. A survey conducted in France in 2017 showed that Putin had an unfavorable view by a margin of a whopping 46%.
That was in 2017. If a survey were conducted now, that difference would likely be even greater. The problem is, we don’t really see those surveys. Instead, we hear a lot of high-decibel chatter from the right wing, which will do whatever it takes to embrace a pro-Putin position. While this approach may still work in the United States, it will not work in Europe.
An overwhelming majority of Europeans support Ukraine, not Russia or the dictator in the Kremlin. Macron is taking a position that resonates with the common people. He has positioned himself as an aggressive leader who is ready to fight.
If the right attacks him, he will label them as pro-Putin. He has openly embraced the anti-Putin stance. How will you criticize Macron while avoiding the pro-Putin label? He will continue to assert that you do not want to see Russia defeated, implying that we may ultimately have to confront the Russians.
Every attack the right tries to launch against Macron will only bolster his position. In fact, he will welcome the right’s criticism for being anti-Putin. He will argue that this is what true leadership entails, and this message will resonate with many.
Support for Macron is spreading like wildfire in Europe.
There is a significant contingent of experts, intellectuals, and pundits openly arguing that Macron is right, and that his position to send troops to Ukraine cannot be dismissed without consideration. Did he have that support before? No. It is now coming to the fore because his statements are starting to resonate. The reality is that he has captured the imagination of people of all stripes and colors.
Attached below is a statement from the foreign ministry of Poland
Estonia. Latvia. Lithuania. Netherlands. Poland. Czech Republic. This is a small but growing list of European nations that have rallied behind the anti-Putin, no more redlines position advocated by the French President. Every country that moves into the list, will increase the pressure on the ones standing outside.
Emmanuel Macron might be playing a very calculated game, but I, for one, don’t mind politicians being politicians when they are on the right side of the justice line. Winston Churchill wouldn’t look like the savior today if he hadn’t repeatedly cornered those who were timid and often on the other side of the political spectrum.
Why the New Macron will be hard for the Kremlin to counter
Because the more his opponents attack him and try to bully him, the more people will feel the need to rally behind him.
Take German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s response to Emmanuel Macron’s public push to corner him over his refusal to deliver the long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine. The Chancellor did not even directly attack the French President. He only stated that the British and the French are helping Ukraine by sending troops there, and that is not acceptable to him.
The global response was nearly unanimous. There was no support for Chancellor Scholz. Instead, country after country in Europe is now making the case that there is nothing wrong with having European troops out there in Ukraine, helping them fight the invaders.
The reason is that people feel helping Ukraine is righteous. So, the perception is that Macron is righteous. If you attack him, he doesn’t even have to respond. People will capture that takeaway and see you for what you are.
This is great news for Ukraine because the French President has made the case to do away with the red lines, and European leaders — not all of them, but a good number of them — are saying….
Yes.
This story in the public domain, free for everyone to read.
