Germans Hold the Line for Ukraine. Again.
They won’t get the credit for it, not that they seem to mind.
Is timing everything? Not quite.
It’s not about constantly waiting for the perfect moment, but you also don’t want to let opportunities slip by. If you waste too much time, you may be making life harder for yourself. Success often comes from recognizing and seizing a good opportunity when it arises — act too early or too late, and you risk missing out.
But that’s about life in general. When you’re up against a mob that’s broken into your house and is intent on destroying you, timing becomes more crucial than ever.
Ukraine took a monumental risk when it invaded Kursk, marking a huge turning point in this two-and-a-half-year war. The operation had political, propaganda, military, and economic dimensions. As courageous as it was, it carried significant risks for Ukraine.
Did any of us think this was a possibility — that Ukraine would invade Russia? No, not even in our wildest dreams.
But why is that? Russia invaded Ukraine, not the other way around. So why didn’t we consider that Ukraine might respond in kind when its very survival was at stake? That’s basic survival instinct, isn’t it? I believe every constitution around the world codifies the right to self-defense. When someone tries to kill you, you’re expected to respond.
You must respond.
And yet, none of us thought such a response was possible. Why? Because a small group of Western leaders had pushed that idea out of our minds. They removed that possibility from the conversation.
We didn’t think Ukraine could invade Russia because we assumed the Western powers supporting Ukraine wouldn’t allow it. And that assumption was correct. Now, consider this from Ukraine’s perspective — imagine the kind of discussions they must have had during the planning phase of the Kursk operation.
The level of operational security they imposed during their planning is now widely known. They understood that informing their Western partners wasn’t an option — so they didn’t. One key factor they must have considered repeatedly was this: how will the West respond after we do this?
They had to prepare for the possibility that the “big four” might stop their support. They likely gamed out the worst-case scenarios, weighed them against the potential benefits, and then made the decision to move forward.
Now, some of those worst-case scenarios are playing out right in front of us. Just look at the levels of Biden-Sullivan support in the 30 days before the Kursk invasion andafter
I’m sorry, but unlike other publications, I won’t refer to it as “American support” from here on out — that would be a mistake.
87% of Americans support Ukraine. More than a majority want that support to continue for at least two more years. The House wants to support Ukraine — they were the ones who provided the Biden-Sullivan team with more than enough funding to win the war. The Senate wants to support Ukraine. Ranking members of the Senate have written letter after letter to the Biden-Sullivan team urging them to do the right thing. So, let’s be clear: it’s not America’s support for Ukraine that’s in question — it’s Biden-Sullivan support for Ukraine.
The Putin regime protection plan seems to be in full swing, despite intense pressure from both Democratic and Republican members of the House and Senate on Biden and Sullivan. Members of the European Parliament have also sent a letter directly to President Biden, urging him to lift the restrictions. Much of the focus has been on long-range weapons — rightly so — but there also needs to be a closer examination of how Biden and Sullivan are handling the funds Congress allocated to support Ukraine.
The point I want to make is that Ukraine feared something like this might happen: that after they took the fight to Putin, seized the initiative, and turned the tables, the Western world would withdraw its support, leaving everything squandered.
Weapons and ammunition were the biggest risks Ukraine assumed when they invaded Kursk. Biden and Sullivan have contributed to slowing things down.
Things were expected to head in the wrong direction.
Thankfully, two key things have happened.
- The international spotlight is now intensely focused on Biden and Sullivan. This team tends to crack under pressure, so I expect a significant aid package to be approved soon.
- On the other side, Germany has significantly stepped up its support for Ukraine. After delivering a substantial amount of weapons over the past four weeks, they announced a major aid package yesterday.
Below is the list of equipment Germany announced for Ukraine yesterday.
One good thing about the Germans is that they don’t take forever to deliver. Once an announcement is made, they get the equipment to Ukraine as quickly as possible. This stands in stark contrast to other Western partners. While Germans were thought to be masters of red tape, it seems they can move swiftly when they truly want to.
There’s little point in focusing on the dollar value of the aid Germany has delivered in the past four weeks and is expected to deliver in the next. Timing is extremely important. Ukraine has the initiative on the battlefield, and the Russian army is desperate to disrupt that. A lack of equipment will not only impede their progress in Kursk but will also complicate their efforts to stabilize the lines in Pokrovosk.
It would be much better with full support from the United States, but unfortunately, that support continues to encounter various challenges. There is a zero percent chance of Putin winning if the United States and Germany stand firm together. However, between the two, only one country is fully shouldering the burden of protecting Ukraine’s progress on the battlefield.
Nevertheless, Ukraine should feel relieved about this.
Why? Because Germany is a reliable partner, and they keep proving it over and over again.
Germans have bought Ukraine some time. I think that will do for now.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 283 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
