Ukraine War continues to reshape the global landscape
Strategic Autonomy and its fallout
I never really understood the term west.
What is it?
Is it a group of countries with a border? or Christian lands, or economically well developed nations, or democracies, or countries that follow capitalism?
Japan lies on the easternmost edge of the world, but the country is almost always included in the list of western countries. Cuba lies right next to the United States, but the country is almost always excluded from the list.
New Zealand and Australia are western countries, but it cannot be because the Brits ruled them. The Brits ruled more than a dozen African countries. So, it is not based on location. Not based on religion. Somewhere it became a perspective.
A collection of values.
Values that one associates with a democracy such as basic human rights, rule of law and freedom to follow their preferred religion.
We cannot determine whether the economic development of the west was caused by the expansion of civil liberties, or the liberties given to the citizens in western lands turned them into economic powerhouses.
Whatever it might be, when we look back at history, we see time and time again that the idea of the west has been attacked by autocrats, who deem civil liberties as an obstacle in their pursuit to absolute power.
Every time evil unmasked itself, these nations rallied to help each other.
The Question of Strategic Autonomy
Human beings are strategically selfish creatures. Some more than others. Give them problems far beyond their capacity to solve, they will embrace their dependencies. Give them problems below their capacity to solve, they will espouse independence.
There is nothing wrong being that way, but the problem arises when you start using those dependencies when it is convenient for you and ignore them when it is inconvenient.
Political leaders of France did not talk about strategic autonomy when Hitler tried to roll them over in 1940. Citizens of France and their leaders worked very closely with allies to weaken the Nazis. “The French Resistance played a significant role in facilitating the Allies’ rapid advance through France following the invasion of Normandy on 6 June 1944”.
The United States, Canada and Britain lost tens of thousands of soldiers during their French campaign. The United States not only helped France during the war, it stood resolutely behind western Europe after the war.
Former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt’s words will forever be part of European history:
“The United States ought not to forget that the emerging European Union is one of its greatest achievements: it would never have happened without the Marshall Plan.”
After the Nazis were defeated, “much of the Continent was still in rubble, poverty present almost everywhere, hunger common in many areas, starvation a particular threat in defeated Germany. The Soviet Union controlled Europe’s eastern half and large communist parties in France, Italy and elsewhere threatened the same fate for Western Europe. An exhausted Britain had already said it could no longer afford to protect Greece or Turkey, and the United States had stepped in with the Truman Doctrine to fill the gap in southeastern Europe. But what, U.S. statesmen asked themselves, could keep Western Europe from falling under Soviet influence?
The answer, of course, was the Marshall Plan, which one contemporary historian calls “the defining moment of the early Cold War.” More formally known as the European Recovery Program (ERP), over the next three years the plan poured an unprecedented $13.3 billion — more than $100 billion in today’s dollars — into 16 Western European economies.
Under the Marshall Plan, France received a total of $2.7 billion in aid. The United States did the best it could do to help the world. It helped a war torn country recover after the second world war.
But I did not see France anywhere on the list of top countries that helped Ukraine.
The politicians of France did not talk about strategic autonomy when the Nazis were looming over their heads. But during his recent visit to China, French President Emmanuel Macron said that “Europe needs to gain “strategic autonomy” and that the greatest risk in achieving this is “getting involved in crises that do not belong to us.”
Perhaps the French President was trying to warm up relations between France and China by announcing that France was ready to insert some strategic distance from the United States. But it could have been done in so many other ways if that was what he wanted. A public statement, when there is a global crisis that requires everyone’s help to resolve, was unnecessary.
Russia cannot win the Ukraine war by itself. Putin can only win the war by breaking European unity and stopping them from helping Ukraine. The French President’s words tells Putin that European Unity is not as strong as it appears to be. It was naïve. It was wrong.
Russian propagandists are already talking about invading Poland. They are talking about marching into Finland. Putin is trying to break European unity. If Putin continues to succeed, the US and UK will be the last in his line of sight, but they are the ones who are at the forefront in the war for freedom.
Naturally, the response from Europe to President Macron was scathing to borderline indifference.
This is how Reuters reported on the European response to Macron’s comments: “European foreign policy officials on Friday urged China not to use force over Taiwan, taking a tough stance against Beijing’s threats over the democratically governed island, after comments by French President Emmanuel Macron were perceived as weak”.
Reuters used an extremely soft term to portray the European response to Macron’s statement. The response from European leaders was a bit more sharp in reality.
Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who visited China after Macron, said the EU “cannot be indifferent” to tensions over Taiwan, while stressing that close partnerships with partners with shared values like the U.S. would be crucial “when we face our own security threats” such as with Russia.
“We are currently seeing how important it is to have partners around the world who share our values at our side when we face our own security threats. That is why it is so important for us, because we are vulnerable as Germany and as the European Union, that we cannot be indifferent to the tensions in the Taiwan Strait,” said Baerbock
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki was even more blunt in his response. He said, “Instead of building strategic autonomy from the United States, I propose a strategic partnership with the United States,”
Ouch!
The French president probably earned every single bit of criticism that is flying his way.
If France was leading the way in rallying Europe against the man who is trying to break it apart, Macron’s comments would have carried a lot of weight. France is far away from the top list of countries that are helping Ukraine win the war.
Germany and Poland count more than a million Ukrainian refugees, but there are less than one tenth of that number in France. Ukrainians prefer Germany and Poland over France.
Is there any reason why that would be the case?
Estonia’s Prime minister Kaja Kallas said that “Every weapon we’ve provided to Ukraine has weakened our enemy and strengthened our own security,”. And the small Baltic nation practices what it preaches.
The French President wants strategic autonomy for France, security guarantees for Russia and signals Europe should not intervene in a crisis that has no direct impact on it.
French President Macron got plenty of headlines, just not the kind he was looking for. Fortunately, the French President’s comments won’t cause the European Union’s unity against Russia to disintegrate.
Because Germany is steadily moving in the right direction.
Since the beginning of this year, Germany has really stepped up its efforts to help Ukraine. It all started with the transfer of the Patriot battery, then it was the decision to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, and now it’s Poland’s request to transfer MiG jets. Germany approved Poland’s request to transfer fighter jets quickly.
Some say it is because of the change of the defense minister. Let’s hope the trend continues to accelerate from here.
The French and German leaders visited China in succession, and it may have helped convince Chinese leadership to hold their middle-of-the-road stance in Ukraine.
China has taken a giant step toward the center. The west now has the best chance to protect democracies and end the war in Ukraine.
The Big Step
China has publicly stated that it will not supply lethal weapons to Russia.
Beijing does not intend to sell weapons to Moscow, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said Friday at a news conference with his German counterpart in Beijing. He said China would not provide lethal aid to either side and would regulate the export of items with dual civilian and military use, the Associated Press reported.
This announcement changes everything. We must underline the word everything.
The Russian army is struggling in Ukraine not just because of the human component but also because of the weapons component. The Ukraine war brutally exposed the substandard quality of Russian weapons. After 400 days of war Russia is running low on its weapons and ammunition.
At its current state there is a production war going on between the west and Russia. As a dictator, Putin has the liberty to order anything and his factories will produce whatever possible to produce with whatever they can possibly get.
It can be difficult for Western countries to make decisions and move forward with them because of red tape. It’s easier to say than to do when it comes to producing weapons.
If China had supplied Russia with lethal weapons, this dynamic would have been completely upended, and the war would have been tilted more to Russia’s favor. We would either have witnessed the beginning of the third world war or we would have introduced a small delay by feeding Ukraine to the wolves.
This has been prevented by China. In addition to pushing back against Putin’s nuclear threats, they have told him that he is on his own in the war against Ukraine.
It is a glorious opportunity to end the war in Ukraine. West continues to get lucky breaks despite repeated mistakes, but to keep counting on luck to beat a man living in his own fantasy is a huge mistake.
