Germany rallies to Ukraine’s aid
Vladimir Putin’s escape route shuts itself down
On July 13, 2022, the first deputy chief of staff of the Kremlin, Sergei Kiriyenko, assembled a group of Russian political strategists. During their meeting, he told them that Russia was aiming to undermine support for Ukraine in Europe by focusing on Germany.
Well, why wouldn’t he?
From the Georgian invasion in 2008 to the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and even as Kyiv pleaded for weapons before Russia’s invasion in 2022, Germany has always given a helping hand to its friend from the east.
The 2015 Minsk agreement, negotiated largely by Germany, was a travesty. It may have put an end to the fighting between separatists supported by Moscow and Ukraine. However, it permanently placed parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts in limbo, neither with Ukraine nor with Russia.
An excellent cover for Putin to keep the separatist movement alive.
Those who support former German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ‘new Ostpolitik,’ in which Germany began working with Russia, cite Petro Poroshenko’s misgovernance as a reason for Germany to look past Kyiv.
“Poroshenko often manipulated the subject of European integration to boost his own ratings and legitimacy. He made no attempts to overhaul the economy, social policies, the financial sector, law enforcement, or the legal system. Ukrainian leaders viewed some of the proposed European reforms as a threat to the dominance of the oligarchs, to whose ranks Poroshenko himself belonged.
The Europeans were frustrated by the situation. They were also growing tired of the conflict with Russia and sanctions-induced economic losses, which strengthened the position of those in Germany advocating for a return to business as usual”.
But things didn’t go back to normal between Germany and Russia. I think it went overboard. German dependence on Russia steadily increased as a result of the Nordstream project. As of 2021, Russia supplied 55 percent of Germany’s gas, 35 percent of its oil, and 45 percent of its coal.
I mean who on earth does that, especially after Russia’s actions in Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014, and Syria nearly a decade ago? It wasn’t new Ostpolitik, it was naive Ostpolitik. Russia had the security cover it needed to risk the Ukraine war due to the German dependency on Russia for its energy needs.
It almost worked, didn’t it?
Therefore, it’s not surprising that people blame Merkel for enabling Russia, or that Russia wanted to undermine Europe’s support for Ukraine by focusing on Germany.
But gone are the days when a technology-rich Germany and an energy-rich Russia worked together quite well. Vladimir Putin, the master strategist, has finally brought an end to that arrangement, leaving no path to recovery.
Germany has aggressively diversified its energy supply over the past year.
- After importing 2.8 million tonnes of crude oil from Russia in January 2022, Germany has now imported just 3,500 tonnes in January this year.
- Germany stopped importing coal from Russia on August 1, 2022. Currently, the United States is Germany’s largest coal supplier.
- “Norway replaced Russia as Germany’s top gas supplier in 2022, accounting for a third of imports. Belgium and the Netherlands also helped plug the gap”. Gas storage levels in Germany currently stand at 65%.
The German government has made significant strides toward energy independence. However, severing its dependence on Russian commoditie was only part of the solution. The other part is preventing Russia from taking aim at Europe after winning Ukraine.
Germany has two different faces on that front. In 2022, there was a Germany, and in 2023, there was another. If this new Germany stays, there is very little chance for the world to slide into an autocratic hellhole.
The Spotlight
This was not something I ever imagined I would write.
German officials announced that 5,000 helmets would be donated to Ukraine before the Russian invasion. After the invasion, they dithered to kick Russia out of the swift payment system. As the war progressed and the scale of deaths mounted, Germany kept insisting that it will not lead the charge against Russia, but instead it would be a team player.
After a stop-start effort to help Ukraine in 2022, Germany finally stepped up in 2023.
Lock, stock and barrel!
From being buried in the list of countries helping Ukraine, Germany is on its way to becoming the second largest supporter for Ukraine. And the transformation is stark.
By January 2023, Germany had given 6.6 billion euros in aid to Ukraine. That number has now shot up to 14.2 billion. In less than three months, Germany doubled its aid, both military and humanitarian.
The Stream
First time my eyebrows raised was not when Germany agreed to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, but when it announced it would send IRIS-T air defense systems in October 2022.
“Though it has been in development since the 1990s and has been through several iterations, the IRIS-T version being delivered to Ukraine, each of which costs about €140 million ($136 million), is extremely new. Final tests were only conducted in late 2021, and the German military, the Bundeswehr, has itself not yet bought any”.
It was a pivotal moment since Germany was sending a system which it did not even use internally. Two months later, Germany ramped up its efforts. The political leadership of Germany snapped early this year when it donated a Patriot battery worth more than a billion dollars to Ukraine. Additionally, they sent three Patriot batteries and 350 German soldiers to Poland to defend NATO’s eastern border.
The list of weapons that Germany has sent to Ukraine is long. There are a few weapons that stand out to me, such as Leopard tanks, IRIS-T air defense systems, DACHS armored engineering vehicles, Marder and M113 infantry vehicles, Beaver armored bridge-laying vehicles, and Gepard anti-aircraft guns.
In addition to weapons, Germany has also helped Ukraine train its troops.
In February this year, Defense minister Boris Pistorius said “Since the outset of the war, we have trained 1,200 Ukrainian soldiers, and by the end of this year their number will exceed 3,000,”
But that is just one of the training programs running in Germany.
In order to train Ukrainian troops, the Special Training Command (STC), an EU military mission led by Germany, gathers several hundred specialists from other countries. It is expected to train up to 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers.
There is also the indelible German mark on the global effort to assist Ukrainian refugees. Most Ukrainian refugees are housed in Poland and Germany. It is impossible to talk about Germany for so long without mentioning its famous bureaucracy.
Sometimes bureaucracy stifles, and sometimes it can be a gift. In the case of Ukrainian refugees, it did become the best version of itself. It has removed the uncertainty associated with the domain. The process of moving to Germany has been made extremely simple for Ukrainians. You can see the results for yourself.
Number of refugees from Ukraine:
- Poland 1,583,563
- Germany 1,056,628
- Czechia 504,352
- United Kingdom 201,000
The Shift
Germany has not changed its policy. The paradigm has shifted. The possibility of Germany going back to its old ways after the war crossed my mind. However, as long as the nationalistic cabal remains in power in Russia, I don’t see that happening.
Restoring the old status of German-Russian relations will require a lot of political maneuvering. The risk of the political hoops one has to jump through is just too much for the reward it offers. Establishing a normal working relationship with a post Putin Russia is within the realm of possibility, but there is no way Germany is ever going to allow Russia to become the dominant energy supplier for its needs.
Putin has roused a sleeping giant. He made Germans understand their strength, and they are finally expressing it.
In this regard, we only have to look at the statement made by foreign minister Annalena Baerbock. It is unlikely that the American Secretary of State would do what she did. In China, she called out China while standing next to a Chinese minister.
Standing beside her Chinese counterpart Qin Gang in Beijing, the German foreign minister voiced a few appreciative remarks about China’s rise to the top world powers before turning up the heat on her host.
“Many in the world are asking how China will use this growing influence,” Baerbock said at the press conference in the palatial Diaoyutai state guesthouse earlier this month. “I have to say frankly, I wonder why the Chinese position has so far not included a call upon the aggressor Russia to stop the war.”
Reconstruction of Ukraine after the war will depend heavily on Germany. It is the Marshall plan executed by the United States that made the world war II-ravaged Western Europe an enviable powerhouse of democratic values in the 21st century. It helped the United States grow internally by getting Europe on its feet. A similar approach can be taken by Germany. In addition to Ukraine, Germany may be able to assist the Baltic States as well.
In the long run, a strong Germany that is not afraid of its own strengths will make a huge difference to the entire world. The last 13 months have been the most transformative for Germany. Now is the time to make those changes count.
