Germany Starts to Buckle Under Intense Pressure. Biden Admin Isolated.
Scholz Administration carefully aligns with French stance on easing restrictions on Western weapons
It was slightly embarrassing to watch. The French President Emmanuel Macron, standing next to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during a joint press conference at Schloss Meseberg near Berlin, pulled out a printout. He then went on to explain why the West must relax the restrictions it has placed on Ukraine.
“We think that we should allow them to neutralize military sites where missiles are fired, from where … Ukraine is attacked,” President Macron said.
It was a blow to the Scholz administration, which maintains strategic ambiguity to Western people. They never explicitly said Ukraine cannot use German weapons to take on Russian targets inside Russian territory. They just let the American officials do the job for them. But everyone in the world, including Moscow, very clearly knows where the German administration stands on this issue.
So, Macron asked for a pivot, standing right next to Scholz. He then went on to soften the impact of his pivot. Macron added, “we should not allow them(Ukraine) to touch other targets in Russia, and obviously civilian capacities.”
Scholz needs some breathing space to make a turnaround. You don’t break the glass in one go; you have to keep chipping at it. Europe, including the Scholz Administration, is heading right into the election season.
So, the French President took the middle ground. He suggested letting Ukraine take out Russian airfields and missile sites from where they are launching their attacks on Ukraine, while staying away from other military and civilian targets.
Ukraine gets a little bit of freedom, while Scholz gains a bit of political operational space. The Chancellor quickly latched on to the space offered by the French President.
Scholz was more cautious, but said he had no legal objections to Macron’s approach. He emphasized that as long as Ukraine respected international law and the conditions of countries supplying the weapons, it was “allowed to defend itself.”
“Ukraine has every possibility under international law for what it is doing. That has to be said explicitly,” Scholz said. “I find it strange when some people argue that it should not be allowed to defend itself and take measures that are suitable for this.”
It was not a full embrace, but a cautious one. However, the dam felt the crack. When journalists pressed Chancellor Scholz’s spokesperson later, he argued that past positions are subject to change. I was quietly laughing.
Scholz’s spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit told reporters that Ukraine’s “defensive action is not limited to one’s own territory, but [can] also be expanded to the territory of the aggressor,” while also stressing that he could not reveal precise agreements with Kyiv on using German weapons as they are “confidential.”
Hebestreit further argued that a year-old statement by Scholz, in which he said there was a “consensus” that Ukraine would not use German weapons on Russian soil, had been “a statement of facts” that was true at that moment but did not necessarily apply to the future.
This is in stark contrast to the Biden administration’s position. Ask them what their stance is on American weapons being used to take out Russian assets safely barricaded behind the border, and they all say the same thing: Ukraine is only allowed to use American weapons inside their own territory.
I thought this restriction only applied to ground forces. I had no clue this administration also prohibits firing at Russian aircraft that launch missiles. It is breathtaking. If Ukraine watches a Su-35 approaching its airspace, they cannot hit the aircraft. They need to wait for it to launch the missiles. Even if they know those missiles are heading towards them, they need to wait until the missiles cross the border, and then they are allowed to intercept them.
Imagine this, a mobster, fires at your house. You are not supposed to do anything, until the bullet crosses your fence. If you do anything, before the bullet enters your house, I will not help you anymore.
Genius.
And then they will spend six months bickering inside Washington, D.C., over aid, leaving Ukraine to defend itself with a dwindling supply of air-defense missiles.
Anyways.
It was the unity in fear between the Biden administration and the Scholz administration that allowed the Western fight against imperialism to meander for two and a half years.
That unity is now cracking.
A person familiar with the German government’s position also said that Scholz was in favor of allowing the use of Western weapons against targets inside Russia, without going into detail.
“I find it strange,” Scholz told reporters on Tuesday, “when some people have discussions and say that they [the Ukrainians] are not allowed to defend themselves and take measures that are suitable for this.”
That is a whole lot of wordplay. But I am happy that the Chancellor felt the need to engage in wordplay instead of outright stating what the American officials keep saying: Ukraine is not allowed to hit targets inside Russia.
This is not a done deal yet
President Macron has to continue doing what he is doing now. Forget the Biden administration. There is no need to talk about what they are doing or not doing. If Europe moves and breaks the ceiling, there will be limited room for the Biden administration to maneuver, especially as they head into the election season.
Whether they turn around or not must be left for them and their officials to decide. Europe should come out in one voice and declare that Ukraine is allowed to target Russian airfields and missile sites. They need to rally behind Macron’s position.
The Biden administration seems intent on prolonging this war as much as possible. They do not seem to want to defeat the Kremlin; rather, they want Putin to withdraw on his own. That has been their strategy for two and a half years.
Did it work?
What do they have to show for their strategy?
From gaining thousands of square kilometers in weeks, Ukraine is now losing hundreds of square kilometers in months. While Russia has mobilized half a million troops from an initial 200,000, Iran and North Korea have placed no restrictions on Moscow’s use of its weapons against Ukrainian civilian and military assets. However, the United States has imposed numerous restrictions, not only on the weapons they supplied but also on weapons provided by other Western partners.
It’s clear what the Biden administration has done. They are threatening Ukraine with withdrawing their support if Ukraine does not adhere to their strategy of not defeating the Kremlin. Is there any other logical reason to explain why Ukraine is not firing British supplied Storm Shadow and French supplied SCALP missiles into Russian garrisons inside their border?
So, you are sort of damned if you take American support, and damned if you don’t.
What do we do now?
We need to keep chipping away at the margins. Why did this administration go from refusing rocket launchers, tanks, fighter jets, and more, to approving everything? One by one.
Public pressure.
And.
Political pressure.
Neither the Scholz administration nor the Biden administration have stood up under intense scrutiny. They will either relax the rules or end up overcompensating for them.
Let us stop the threat makers
Their willingness to threaten Ukraine for fighting for their lives as they see fit must be taken away from them. Whatever is happening now goes a long way to ensure that events like the following never happen again.
According to German Newspaper Bild:
Ukraine is also not allowed to use Western air defense against attacking Russian aircraft; it has to wait until the bombers have released their cruise missiles and they are already over Ukrainian territory to fight them.
According to BILD information, the Ukrainian army used a “Patriot” system from Germany at least once to take action itself. The reaction: angry calls from Berlin and Washington and threats to stop supplying anti-aircraft missiles if such an incident were to happen again.
I don’t know if the Biden administration will change course and permit Ukraine to hit Russian assets behind the border. The spotlight and intense scrutiny that have befallen them may induce a change in behavior. Left without checks and balances, the national security team of the United States, which once readily picked up the phone to threaten Ukraine with a withdrawal of support, is likely to do so again.
It’s disappointing to see the Western media, which wastes no time in writing sob stories on Ukraine, took so long to report on the nonsense that Berlin and Washington engaged in last year.
This is the role of the fourth estate: to prevent politicians from happily running around with a mask. If they had published this detail a few weeks or months after the incident happened, many things might have changed. But in many ways, I am glad this incident has come to light now and not three months from now.
Ukraine is still not in a great position to play offense, yet. What would Berlin and Washington do if Ukraine started to crush the Russian military and move its ground forces towards Crimea? Angry calls from Berlin and Washington, and threats to stop supplying bullets and 155mm artillery shells if such an incident were to happen again?
Not going to happen.
I mean, they will be tempted to try. But they will remember the spotlight they are under now. We need to keep both the American and German administrations under intense spotlight. It will be good for them. It will be good for us. It will be good for Ukraine and the entire world.
Both President Biden and Chancellor Scholz must be asked repeatedly if they threatened to stop supplying anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine. That will prevent such incidents from ever happening again.
Update: 31 May 2024
After a series of events that unfolded on May 30, 2024, the Biden administration lifted the restrictions on Ukraine using American weapons to strike targets inside Russia. The German government has followed suit. More updates on the developments can be found here.
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