Germany Takes on Air-Defense Heavy Lifting While Others Keep Talking
Europe has a desperate need to complicate things
I do like Politico.
I find them to be more balanced and forthright. However, the title of a recent story they wrote about the German effort to mobilize air-defense for Ukraine made me squirm. Yes, the German effort to get all of Europe to generate a collective response to fix the gaping hole in Ukraine’s air-defense did not get off the ground.
But that does not mean it was a failure.
So, I disagree with the use of the term “falls flat” in their title.
According to Politico Europe
For weeks, senior German politicians — principally Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius — have been leaning on allies to follow through on their commitments to gift Patriot air and missile defense batteries to Ukraine.
Sending more is an “absolute priority,” Baerbock said during a trip to Kyiv on Tuesday, where she said Berlin had helped raised €1 billion to support Ukraine’s aerial protection.
But the response from other countries has fallen flat.
Germany has spent the past month talking up its Immediate Action on Air Defense initiative, as first reported by POLITICO, but partner nations are unwilling to send the desperately-needed batteries to Ukraine, two people familiar with the talks said.
Berlin did promise to help Ukraine source crucial air defenses, but they ran into stiff resistance at every turn. They could not convince other European nations that have Patriot systems to yield their systems for Ukrainian defense. As a result, Germany took matters into its own hands and sent more of their own systems to Ukraine.
Germany takes the bulk of Ukraine’s air-defense capacity
Some time next month, Ukraine will end up with a total of five U.S.-made Patriot air-defense systems and two French-made SAMP/T air-defense systems. Of these, three Patriot units will have come from one country: Germany.
Germany has not only provided long-range Patriots but also medium to short-range systems such as the IRIS-T (4 units) and Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns (52 units).
A layered air-defense is a must in the current theater. You need systems that can detect and intercept missiles and aircraft at long range and high altitudes, systems that can handle threats at medium range, and short-range air-defense systems with a heavy firing rate to counter the presence of drones being used in swarms to weaken air-defense protection.
Additionally, shoulder-fired anti-aircraft weapons are essential.
I have seen numerous videos where Ukraine used the German made Gepard to knock out Shahed drones fired by Russia. Every missile barrage launched by the Russians is almost always accompanied by Shahed drones. I have no doubts that all Patriot launchers are under the protective cover of Gepards. They are extremely valuable and form the last line of protection for the highly expensive and irreplaceable Patriot and SAMP/T systems.
I would wager that, at the moment, more than half of Ukraine’s air-defense capacity is provided by German-made systems. Yes, this is the same country that initially suggested sending Ukraine helmets at the start of the war. Yes, this is the same administration that refuses to send the long-range Taurus missiles that would wreak havoc on Russian logistics. It is also the same administration that feels compelled to verbally respond every time Putin rattles his nuclear sabre, reminding Moscow how much they are gripped by fear.
But it is also the same country that houses hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian migrants who fled the war. And it is the same country that, instead of blaming fellow European nations for refusing to offer their Patriot units, took matters into its own hands. Germany has given away a lot of air-defense systems, taking on some stress in its own air-defense cover.
So, I leave it to you: whether you want to blame Germany for its past mistakes and fears, or appreciate them for truly leading the air-defense coalition.
Ukraine will continue to struggle with its air-defense.
It goes without saying that no matter how much air-defense you manage to pack, the enemy is going to keep probing and finding gaps. Ukraine is a vast country spanning hundreds of thousands of square kilometers.
President Zelensky and his team believe that ten long-range systems will place them in a great position to counter Russian missiles. Ten systems will, of course, increase the interception rate many times greater than four systems.
Every asset added to the network strengthens the network as a whole. Every asset taken out of the network weakens it.
Four systems for a country as large as Ukraine do not constitute a network; they provide localized coverage capable of protecting certain sections, provided there are enough air-defense missiles to handle the Russian barrages that seek to overwhelm the systems.
How did Russian missiles manage to sneak through the Kharkiv shopping center during broad daylight on a Saturday morning? The location of the city, just a few minutes away from the border for the missiles, makes it extremely difficult to intercept them even with a Patriot unit. You need layer after layer of coverage to protect that city.
“No naming and shaming, but I once again urge countries that have Patriots to speed up decisions and provide these systems to Ukraine. I believe that seven Patriot systems are not a high price to pay for long-term peace in Europe. But they are needed now, not tomorrow. Unfortunately, mere words of solidarity do not intercept Russian missiles,” Dymetro Kuleba, Ukraine’s Foriegn minister said.
Most of the European countries that have the Patriot air-defense system keep talking and talking without taking action. They are simply not interested in giving their systems.
“There is no European leadership and no unity between the main actors. The sense of urgency has not increased; there’s more a sense of relief now that the Americans are delivering again,” said CEPA’s Nico Lange.
That is very true. Let someone else do it. This is the same lackadaisical attitude that fed the monster of imperialism on Europe’s eastern border. I have complained many times about the behavior of rich Western European nations and the way they treat the smaller nations in the EU. I think once the war is over, the big two in Europe need to pile on the pressure on these countries. Everybody pays. Everybody contributes.
There are a few workarounds that Germany can implement to improve Ukraine’s air defense:
Option 1: Allow Eastern European nations such as Poland and Romania to protect Western Ukraine. German and American Patriots at the front, with Polish and Romanian systems at the back along the border. This will create a huge protective zone in western Ukraine, allowing a safe space for the F-16s to operate.
Close the sky over western Ukraine using anti-aircraft systems located inside NATO territory. Poland and Romania.
Yes, Putin will say something provocative. Who cares? He is going to speak anyway. The day he bombed the children’s hospital for the first time should have been the last time we wasted our time on his opinion.
Option 2: In late April, it was reported that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is pushing the United States to deliver one more Patriot air-defense system to Ukraine. I had previously highlighted that this problem is something Europe urgently needs to address.
I mean, come on. How long are these people going to keep sleeping? It’s their “let someone else do it” attitude that has brought them dangerously close to being dismantled by a leader who cannot govern. There are plenty of nations, including Germany, that fall below NATO guidelines for defense spending. Putin is allocating 8% of the nation’s GDP to defense and security, a figure they’ve published, but I suspect the real value of Russian defense expenditure is much higher.
So, Putin is out there, shaking the nation for pennies, turning his country into a war machine with little regard for the lives of average Russians, all while eyeing Europe for dismantling.
And yet, we have multiple European nations with Patriot systems that are simply not ready to take on the burden. Spain, for instance, has three or four Patriot units but refuses to give even one. I propose Spain should pay one billion dollars to the United States and request the delivery of one Patriot unit.
The reason is simple: we need to be cautious about how we utilize the $60 billion U.S. aid package cleared by Congress. We won’t get another package, so we must use the money wisely. Spain has the Patriots but won’t give them. Since they are geographically most advantageous against the Kremlin, I believe they should foot part of Ukraine’s air-defense bill.
Option 3: Pack the F-16s. Take it past the 100 units mark. The Russians are using 300 aircraft to control the skies over the occupied territory. Allocating one-third of that capacity seems reasonable to me.
Give yourself some breathing space to load up on air-defense, as F16s can double up as air-defense assets.
There is something that is not yet done.
Honestly, I don’t know the answer to the question I’m about to ask. So, please let me know your thoughts.
Patriot units are built by Raytheon Technologies, a U.S. company. The Defense Production Act, enacted in 1950, allows the President of the United States to designate specific materials, services, or facilities as critical and strategic for national defense. Businesses can be compelled to accept and prioritize contracts for producing these critical goods, even if it disrupts their usual operations.
Why can’t the national security team of the United States ask the President to invoke the DPA and order four Patriot units to be built on an emergency basis, with Europe footing the bill?
This seems like a fairly simple solution to me. Why isn’t anyone talking about this?
I really don’t get it.
Update: May 29th, 2024
The Dutch government is proposing that a toolkit battery be assembled from multiple donor countries and provided to Ukraine ASAP. “The Netherlands will contribute core components and parts from its stock and invites European countries to add components from theirs.” The Dutch have already provided 2 launchers to Ukraine. It’s unclear what exactly they will provide under this arrangement, but the key components are the radar & engagement control station. — Military Analyst, Colby Badhwar
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