Give them the damn Patriots
Imagine having a first aid kit in your house, but you refuse to give it to your neighbor when he is left battered and bruised by a mob.
Wars are complicated endeavors. There are so many different parts to the puzzle. You fix one, and before you catch your breath, the other side will have made a few changes, and you will have to respond.
The only constant is change.
Adapt or perish.
Ukraine has a problem. It wasn’t the kind of problem that took us by surprise, falling into our laps from the sky when we weren’t looking. It happened and continues to happen right in front of the entire world to see.
U.S. intelligence gathering works. If they can forecast the consequences of collective efforts by meticulously examining countless leads, analyzing extensive datasets, monitoring reams of social media content, and even deciphering clandestine conversations in remote corners of the globe to pinpoint the precise city and potential venue of a terrorist plot, then one might question the difficulty in uncovering the circumstances surrounding Ukraine’s loss in Avdiivka.
A straightforward comparison of satellite images before and after, captured at noon over a 30-day period spanning from January 17th to February 17th, would provide clear insight into the sequence of events leading to the outcome.
“Russian forces appear to have temporarily established limited and localized air superiority and were able to provide ground troops with air support during the final days of their offensive operation to capture Avdiivka, likely the first time that Russian forces have done so in Ukraine”, wrote the ISW immediately after Ukraine’s loss of the Avdiivka stronghold.
Yuri Ihnat, Ukrainian air force spokesman, told CNN: “On the eve of and during the battle of Avdiivka hundreds of air bombs were launched within days. There were 250 of them used in Avdiivka direction in 48 hours only.”
These glide bombs are a clear and present danger to the frontline today. If nothing is done, these bombs will find their way beyond the frontline. How long before these bombs start to target residential buildings in Kharkiv or any other population center right next to the frontline? It is going to happen unless Ukraine is given the ability to respond.
Ukraine understood there is only one way to stop these attacks. Once the glide bombs are dropped, the lack of reaction time, which is often just a few seconds to few minutes, makes them impossible to intercept.
These bombs have a range of 25 to 40 miles. The bombers have to get closer to the frontline in order to launch them. Taking out the delivery vehicles, the fighter jets, is the only way out.
Ukraine must stop the jets before they get closer to the frontline.
This is the reason why Ukraine moved one of its Patriot launchers closer to the frontline. It is possible they may have lost one launcher in the process. Ukraine has three or four Patriot batteries with three to four dozen launchers. Each Patriot battery will have multiple launchers.
That is all they have: three or four Patriot batteries. They need to use them to defend their cities like Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Odessa. They will have to willingly leave a huge number of towns and villages at God’s mercy. Then, they will have to take the risk and move one battery around the 600-mile frontline to ensure that the Russian air force does not take the risk and venture beyond the frontline.
Just one at the front. Two or three for the entire country of 40 million lives.
The Patriot battery roaming around on the frontline has a target drawn on its back. I will be surprised if Putin hasn’t ordered a special task force to track down and demolish that battery. If it gets destroyed, Ukraine’s air defense will become even worse than it is now.
They will be left with so much open space for the Russians to exploit. The United States has 60 Patriot batteries. By 2018, the US had around 1,200 interceptors in stock.
How much did they give Ukraine: (Units in possession)
- 31 M1 Abrams Tanks (More than 3,000)
- 39 dumbed down HIMARS systems (Army 363 units, Marines 47 units)
- 1 Patriot Battery (Around 60 batteries)
- 12 ATACMS (Thousands)
- 0 Fighter jets (Thousands)
But call Putin a thug. Call him a butcher. Call him names.
Putin bullshits all the time, so he kind of expects you to do the same. But the list above that I documented is the one the Russian President and his green little men are going to keep an eye on. This is a problem completely manufactured by President Biden’s sit-on-your-hands national security team.
They are sending a clear signal to the Kremlin that their support for Ukraine is glossy on paper but missing in substance.
There are two ways Ukraine can be helped to address the weakness that continues to grow every day.
The Best Option: More Patriot Batteries for Ukraine
The Biden administration keeps saying that they do not want Ukraine to attack inside Russia. Okay. Fine. Bombing far-off nations is a liberty only granted to American administrations. We will learn to live with this new strategic posture by America. If that is what they really want Ukraine to do, then I have a simple solution.
Tell Ukraine to stop attacking inside Russia. Ask them to make that promise. But in return send them ten Patriot batteries. Ask them to go ahead and use them as they see fit. Protect your skies. Protect your frontline. Hit everything that is flying inside Ukraine. Also, promise to send 100 Patriot interceptors every month until Russians leave Ukraine.
Job done.
Zelensky may gladly accept that deal because the need to take the attack to the Russians inside Russia will be mitigated. The sky is safe, and Ukraine can evict the Russians from its historical lands.
A dead on entry sky zone over Ukraine in exchange for refraining from attacks beyond Ukraine’s 1991 borders.
Second Option: Free up the HIMARS
If the Biden administration balks at the dollar bill or the huge size of the Patriot shipment, then they can free up HIMARS of all the restrictions they have placed. (HIMARS needs ATACMS missiles to hit long range targets) Send Ukraine the ATACMS missiles that can reach up to 300 kilometers. This will allow Ukraine to eviscerate all the airfields inside Ukrainian territory, including Crimea.
- Belbek Air Base — 38th Fighter Aviation Regiment / 27th Mixed Aviation Division
- Gvardeiskoye Air Base — 37th Mixed Aviation Regiment / 27th Mixed Aviation Division
- Djankoi Air Base — 39th Helicopter Regiment / 27th Mixed Aviation Division
- Kacha Air Base — 318th Navy Aviation Regiment
- Kirovskoe Air Base — 929th Air Force Training Center
- Saki — 43rd Navy Aviation Regiment
All these bases located in Crimea will immediately come under the firing range of HIMARS+ATACMS. The Russians have no choice but to fly from airbases inside Russia. Every second that gets added to the flight time makes those jets a better target for Ukraine’s air defense.
If President Biden desires Ukraine to cease attacking inside Russia, then the responsibility lies with him to ensure Ukraine feels secure first. Only then can he achieve his objectives. Pursuing it in reverse will not benefit his administration or Ukraine. Collaboration is more effective, but understanding the other side is also crucial.
This is not a problem without a solution
The fix begins with our awareness. It’s not a daunting task either. The refusal to arm Ukraine by the current administration is increasingly resembling a political decision. It’s unclear if this decision stems from the President himself or his national security team.
Nonetheless, the ultimate responsibility rests with him.
They have been wrong since day one of this war, and they are still wrong. They wanted President Zelensky to flee. Not dig in and fight. But the good news is that they can change. None of us should keep harping on the past. Just take a look at the warm reception French President Emmanuel Macron has received after he made a sharp pivot in favor of Ukraine.
Did Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas complain about Macron’s absence in all the discussions in the past? Nope. She is discussing the pros and cons of Macron’s positions that have the potential to shape the future. And so did most of the leaders in Europe. None of us want to be stuck in the past. We want to move into the future. We worry more about what our leaders are doing today than what they did in the past. And we worry even more about what they might do in the future.
This administration has to change. It needs to alter the way it responds to the crisis that is threatening to unravel due to a lack of political will.
Yesterday, Ukrainian President Zelensky had a phone call with U.S. House Speaker Johnson. It has been reported that the Speaker is planning to bring the Ukraine aid bill to the floor of the House in mid-April. I am confident that he will come up with a new bill. Just to make sure that it feels like the GOP is leading this. Fine, so be it. Just pass the bill and get going. It’s really not worth continuing to delay this.
I would love to see two things on the first shipment after the bill clears the House.
- More Patriot batteries
- More Patriot interceptors
That is not a lot to ask, is it?
