Harris Breaks Open North Carolina

Let the offense begin

Over the last two days, when I released my forecasts for the Presidential race and the Senate, I mentioned that I will update you every two weeks on the state of the race. Reporting every day is somewhat pointless, as it would make it harder to absorb the changes. There is one exception to that schedule: North Carolina. If possible, I may cover North Carolina daily. Realistically, I probably can’t because of my other commitments, but I’m open to it.

I almost started digging into the county numbers and local races in North Carolina. I had to stop myself, but I think I may end up doing that at some point. That’s how important North Carolina is.

Pennsylvania and Georgia are important too, but they don’t come close to how much North Carolina will impact the presidential election this year.

• If Harris wins North Carolina, she will become the President of the United States.
• If Trump wins NC. He will still be in the race.
• That is the difference.

To rub salt in the Trump-Vance wound, and despite Republican pollsters bending over backwards to keep the aggregate leaning towards Trump in the state, Harris has pulled into a small lead. It’s a minuscule 0.2-point lead, but it’s still the average.