How Did Russian Missiles Get Through Kyiv’s Air-Defense Shield?
Russians are Learning Through Failure
From the moment the missiles homed in on the largest children’s hospital in Kyiv, killing innocent people, one question kept dogging me: How did they manage to get through? And the missiles that succeeded in delivering evil by air were not the hyped-up supersonic or ballistic missiles, but regular Kh-101 cruise missiles.
These long-range missiles can be launched by Russia’s bombers but travel at subsonic speeds. How did they get through Kyiv’s packed air defense, which has the widest array of Western air-defense weapons?
We need to rewind a bit to understand this. It’s the same process we go through when our water pipes start leaking. It starts with small drips. If left alone, it will start to seep. Still do nothing, and it will speed up.
For months, the modified Russian S-300 air-defense systems were firing at apartment buildings, shopping centers, and random targets in Kharkiv. This Russian unit was positioned in Belgorod, a Russian territory not far from Kharkiv. Once launched, the air-defense missiles fired from the S-300 had to stay in the air for just a few minutes before homing in on targets in Kharkiv.
It was May 25th, 2024.
In the first hour of May 25th, Russia fired a volley of S-300 missiles at Kharkiv. There was a lot of damage, and the success would have informed the Russians about the strength of Ukrainian air defense in the city. Around 4:00 PM that day, Russia fired a guided bomb, ‘UMPB D-30 SN,’ at the hypermarket, the first documented instance of Russians using the bomb to snuff out Ukrainian lives. The shopping center went up in flames, taking 19 lives with it. Many more people were injured.
Drip.
The Iskander missiles that Russian armed forces were firing at Ukraine were getting through. Not so much in Kyiv, but they were repeatedly getting through in other areas. The back-to-back hits the Kremlin executed on Ukrainian airfields last week were all carried out with Iskander missiles. Some of these Iskanders had missiles with cluster munitions following them towards the target. The damage was disputed by both sides, but there is no denying that Russian missiles landed on forward Ukrainian air-bases.
Drip. Drip.
The Russians were constantly probing, and they were finding success here and there. As of today, there are potentially five long-range air-defense systems in Ukraine, guarding a territory of more than 300,000 square kilometers. There are gaps. Russia is constantly trying to figure out how to breach Ukrainian air defense.
This week’s attack on the children’s hospital in Kyiv was executed by Kh-101 missiles. A volley of missiles flew toward the hospital and nearby buildings. Eight of the 38 missiles Russia fired that day got through. Unfortunately, one of the missiles that had the children’s hospital coordinates marked in it breached the air-defense.
The problem with air defense is that you need to destroy all the enemy missiles. The enemy only has to breach your defense once to deliver damage.
First, S-300 air-defense missiles were getting through. Then the Iskanders were getting through. Now, we have Kh-101s getting through.
Drip. Drip. Drip.
In response, we have increased the long-range air-defense protection of Ukraine by a single unit in 2024, compared to 2023. A single drop of water to quench the thirst of man walking in the desert.
We stopped improving, while the Russian army improved.
The Russians are firing their missiles at low altitudes before making a vertical drop on the target.
The suspected Kh-101 missile caught on video was traveling from a high altitude as it “dived” toward its target, Fabian Hoffmann, defense expert and doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo, told the Kyiv Independent.
“That is quite different from typical low-altitude approaches and may have something to do with penetrating into Ukraine’s weapons engagement zone (WEZ).”
Russians are constantly hunting for ways to breach Ukrainian air defense, and the lack of air-defense density is starting to show. There is only one way to stop this: the promised systems must be delivered to Ukraine as quickly as possible. We also need to increase the number of long-range air-defense systems in Ukraine and ramp up Ukraine’s ability to monitor its skies.
Ukraine will not fall short of air-defense missiles. At least 500 air-defense missiles will be delivered to Ukraine over the next six months. I don’t have the details of when these missiles will be delivered, but the payment has been made, so missiles will be delivered at some point.
So, there is no problem with air-defense missiles. The problem is the lack of long-range air-defense systems and surveillance systems. Ukraine needs more early warning aircraft.
Under normal circumstances, the aircraft operates for about eight and a half hours, at 30,000 feet (9,150 metres) and covers a surveillance area of more than 120,000 square miles (310,798 square kilometres). The aircraft is capable of flying longer operations due to its air-to-air refuelling capability.
We need to enable Ukraine to conduct 24/7 surveillance operations from the air. We can even loan these aircraft to Ukraine. There will be no need for them to venture into hostile Russian airspace. They can hang back and still provide a lot of coverage. This will significantly improve Ukraine’s ability to monitor Russian missiles and aircraft.
Unless we move quickly, these attacks are bound to escalate. From the Kharkiv hypermarket, Russians succeeded at hitting Ukraine’s air bases, and now they are tasting success in Kyiv.
It is not an impossible task to arrest the slide. We have the systems Ukraine needs and we can send them quickly.
I am fairly confident that the NATO summit in Washington, D.C. will deliver. My only worry is how long it will take to send these systems to Ukraine.
I hope they also plan on delivering things quickly.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 220 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
