How Russia is Preparing to fight through 2024
Igor Girkin gets four years
Heating pipes are frozen. Water pipes are bursting. Military wives are screaming for their husbands. Sadistic serial killers are getting released. Eggs can throw you into a tiny shell. From the outside, it does feel like Russia will struggle to sustain the war. No one can make these things up, because it is happening right in front of our eyes.
In today’s intelligence update, U.K ministry of defense shed some light on the darkness engulfing Russian utilities:
- In recent months, there have been heating breakdowns in 16 locations across Russia. These breakdowns amidst sub-freezing temperatures are an expansion of an existing problem that has plagued Russian cities and towns for decades, but has likely become more acute due to wartime policies.
- Russia has routinely prioritized military spending over re-investment in general public infrastructure, especially since their invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Many regional governments have been asked to take the burden of operating with less federal revenue and have been asked to fund local volunteer forces, which has likely stretched their budgets and necessitated some cuts to maintenance spending. Additionally, mobilization has likely led to a workforce shortage across all industries including qualified heating engineers and plumbers.
When you launch highly strategic meat grinder operations to win ruined villages in Ukraine, engineers and plumbers are going to vanish from the society.
But Russians will not protest, because the screws are getting tight. The Kremlin has revealed its true face to the Russians. The message is loud and clear. You do, what you are told to do. Dare to do something else then there will be a heavy price to pay. Section by section, the Kremlin is tightening the screws on the Russian society.
Igor Girkin gets 4 years: A Warning to Ultranationalists in Russia
Girkin served as the leader of Russian paramilitary forces that incited separatist unrest in Ukraine’s Donbas region in 2014. In recognition of his actions, the Kremlin granted him the position of defense minister in the Donetsk People’s Republic.
In 2022, a Dutch court convicted Girkin and two others of murder for their involvement in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over Ukraine in July 2014. The tragedy resulted in the deaths of 298 people, including 196 Dutch citizens.
Over the years the separatist movement in Donbas lost its charm. There wasn’t much to do. So, Girkin rebranded himself as a high end ultranationalist. When Wagner Mercenaries Chief Prigozhin was alive, Girkin used to attack him regularly. For some reason, after his death, Girkin went after Vladimir Putin as well as the top commanders of the Russian military. May be there was a plan to replace the vacuum left Prigozhin’s departure within the Russian ultranationalist community.
He was arrested by Putin’s services a few months ago. (Nothing happens in the fatherland without father’s permission)
This week, a Moscow court passed a verdict, finding Girkin guilty of inciting extremism. Blowing up an aircraft full of civilians is not extremism. Calling out Putin’s strategy in Ukraine is extremism.
Previously convicted in absentia at a Dutch court for the downing of the passenger jet MH17 traveling from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur in 2014, Girkin was sentenced on Thursday — after his domestic opposition to Putin — to four years in a Russian penal colony. His trial took place in a closed session.
“I serve the Fatherland!” Girkin said, after the judge asked if he understood the verdict.
Yup.
Russia’s father wants you to serve the rest of your life in prison. In Russia getting into the prison is the easiest thing to do, but getting out is not. Since, Girkin spoke against the father, I don’t think this mass killer will every get out of Russian prison. His jail term is a message to all the ultranationalists covering the war: Do your job. Be the Kremlin mouthpiece. Don't get too cute and don't talk about the father. Otherwise you will end up like Igor Girkin.
Shut your mouth or lose everything:
Russia already has several laws to punish anyone who has an opinion about the war in Ukraine. The maximum prison sentence for any violation is 15 years. But things are simmering in the Russian society, just below the surface. Last week thousands of protesters in Baymak clashed with Putin’s police force.
Thousands of protesters rallied in south-central Russia on Wednesday after a court sentenced Fayil Alsynov, an indigenous rights activist for the local Bashkir ethnic group, to four years in a penal colony on charges of inciting ethnic hatred.- Politico
As fear against the Kremlin is slowly staring to erode, the Kremlin is taking aggressive measures to silence the population. The State Duma, the lower house of of the Russian parliament, approved a bill this Wednesday. 395 in favor. 3 against. If passed, (of-course it will pass), it will allow the Russian government to confiscate properties, money and what ever the officials consider valuable from anyone who criticize the Russian army.
Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, who co-authored the bill, told lawmakers that the measure was “not enough” to stop the army’s critics. “They live comfortably, renting out property, continuing to receive royalties at the expense of Russian citizens. They use these funds to support the Nazi regime,” Volodin said.
“The decision adopted should stop those who commit crimes against the security of our country, who consider it possible to insult our citizens, soldiers and officers, and who support the Nazis,” he added.
Ouch!
Mobilization after election:
There is a small possibility that the Kremlin will decide to do another round of mobilization after the presidential elections are over in March. It would depend on the situation in Ukraine.
According to ISW, Russia has created a system that recruits around 1,000 soldiers every day for the war. There are enough troops in the occupied territory to rotate troops, an extremely important requirement to keep the force density in balance. I am not talking about their combat ability.
It has become very clear in the last five months that the Russian troop strength in Russia, when coupled with their defensive fortifications is capable of holding the frontline. But it is also evident that they are not able to advance.
To change the balance, Russia may choose to step on the recruitment.
There is a possibility that the Kremlin may decide to undertake another round of mobilization after the presidential elections conclude in March. This potential move hinges on the evolving situation in Ukraine. Russia has implemented severe measures to suppress dissent, and if deemed necessary, they might opt for increased mobilization. Although it could become more oppressive, I harbor no optimism or anticipation for the Russian populace to mount a resistance. My inclination towards this perspective was already present, and recent events have only reinforced my pessimistic outlook.
Is it worth living as a Russian?
Yesterday morning, I spoke to a man from Russia, who somehow managed to escape the war. I accidentally ended up talking to him without knowing who he was. He wouldn’t dare say anything wrong about his Russland. I kept obliquely digging. But nothing. He painted such a rosy picture as if nothing is happening. As if there is no war or nothing. But of course, I knew what is happening. And I am sure he knows as well. But he does not even dare to talk about it.
Hitler 2.0 has already instilled a certain level of fear into multiple generations of Russians. All of them will keep lying to themselves and most probably will do the same to you if you come across them. It is pathetic. He mowed their hope. So, there is no reason for us to have hope in them. Expecting this population to fight back is never going to work. They will die or cry alone in their bedroom.
That is all there is for them left to do.
They have the freedom to cry.
