I picked one out of the many options Ukraine has in Kursk Oblast. It will change the battle on its head and the war.
Kremlin may have to do another press-conference
The Ukrainian armed forces are still advancing at such a fast pace that map makers covering the war effort are struggling to track their progress. Recent reports indicate that Ukraine has reached Krasnooktyabr’skoe village, which lies on the banks of the Reka Seym River. This is a very important location because it is where the river turns.
The Reka Seym is not a mighty river like the Dnipro, but even a small canal can make life difficult for those trying to cross. For almost five months, the Russians have been trying to cross the canal near Chasiv Yar. They are still trying. It is easy to say, but extremely hard to do.
The section I am talking about in Kursk Oblast is an extremely large area, but it is well covered by the Reka Seym river. If Ukraine decides to move along the banks of this river and control the territory, it will completely disrupt the Russian war plan. They do not need to take the entire area right now. All they have to do is cover and defend the land they are currently controlling. As long as they keep the Krasnooktyabr’skoe village and nearby settlements, Russia will find it extremely hard to find another route to confront the Ukrainians.
It would practically be a repeat of what is happening in southern Ukraine. Russia has fortified defenses in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which allows them to have less manpower in the Kherson sector, which is covered by the Dnipro river. Unless Ukraine pushes the Russians back in the Zaporizhzhia sector by breaking their defenses, the Kherson sector will remain under Russian control.
Yes, Ukraine will need troops to control the area that lies to the south of the Reka Seym river, but they will not need them in huge numbers. It is the section between where the river turns and Sudzha that will need a large troop presence to stay in control.
You can see that on the map below.
What I have spoken about here is just one of the many options Ukraine has in Kursk. There are a few more equally good ones that can completely disrupt the Russian calculus and turn the war on its head. The other two options are still developing and may or may not happen. I chose to cover only this one because Ukraine has already reached the banks of the Reka Seym river, and Russia has only just started to mobilize resources for the Kursk front. It will be a few more days before they can show up.
According to the ISW, Russia is still not sending its best units to Kursk:
Many of these units reportedly have been completely destroyed and reconstituted multiple times due to the Russian command’s reliance on them on the battlefield, and their redeployment to Kursk Oblast from elsewhere on the frontline could degrade Russian forces’ capabilities within Ukraine.
This is another mistake. I can understand why they are doing this: they do not want to fully weaken their existing advance in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. They still want to keep advancing in the older frontline, but at the same time, they cannot be seen as not making any effort to stop the Ukrainian advance in Kursk. They are trying to deploy large numbers of lower competency troops, mixed with a small number of elite troops.
The problem is that Ukraine has already deployed its most lethal and maneuverable brigades in the Kursk sector. This could turn into a huge advantage for Ukraine, provided they have clear visibility into the weapons supply calendar. Ukraine still has a good number of under-equipped brigades. If the West keeps its promise and delivers the weapons needed by those brigades, Ukraine can keep drawing Russian forces to Kursk and destroy them.
Another reason I wanted to write this story is due to the escalating chatter about Ukraine capturing the nuclear power plant. I wrote why it is a bad idea here. When there is an option to take control of nearly 1,000 square kilometers of defendable area and significantly disrupt Russian war efforts, why should Ukraine choose the nuclear power plant option? There is no need.
Why fight the enemy in your house, when there is an option to take him on before he leaves his own house?
I do think we are very close to the maximum depth of Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk. From here on out, it will be lateral movements. And never forget, withdrawal is always an option worth exploring. Ukraine has nothing to lose by pulling back its forces to its own side of the border while retaining the ability to cross the border at will at another location.
This keeps things mobile.
I am reminded of the many tricks Alexander played before crossing the Jhelum River to meet Porus in 326 BC. He kept his forces on one side of the river while Porus had his troops on the other side. Alexander repeatedly moved his troops along the river, making fake moves as if he were going to cross over. He did this so many times until he felt the other side became tired, and one day he simply chose to cross the river. He kept the choice but forced the other side to respond.
Ukraine has the mobility; Russia does not. Now it is up to them to decide if they want to present a continuous defensive line inside Russia or to keep moving things around. If I were Ukraine, from this point onward, my objective would be to degrade Russian combat power by engaging the Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. Whether I do this while controlling vast amounts of Russian territory or without it is only one of the factors to consider — not the only factor.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 229 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
