Introducing Palianytsia: Ukraine Pivots from Drones to Missiles
Details are hard to find, but the reasoning is not
A few days ago, Ukraine announced the first successful attack on an enemy target using a newly developed weapon. The decision to name this new class of weapon, a ground-launched drone missile, “Palianytsia,” has an interesting backstory.
Palianytsia means bread. In classical sense, it means large-sized round wheat bread, baked in an oven. At the start of the war Russia unleashed against Ukraine, the word “palianytsia” became a symbol, since Russian occupiers are unable to pronounce it correctly. It became a shibboleth, distinguishing friend from enemy without mistake.
During the early days of the war, Ukrainians used the word “Palianytsia” to identify saboteurs who were moving around in civilian clothes in occupied territory. Russians cannot pronounce “Palianytsia” the way Ukrainians do, but now they have to. Ukrainians are using this opportunity to teach the Russians army a lesson, a language lesson — with their missiles.
For obvious reasons, Ukraine has not released many details about the missile, but some information has been allowed to seep through. When the Ukrainian armed forces introduced the drone missile in a video, it showed that Russia’s Savasleyka air base, which is around 700 km from Ukraine, is within range of the Palianytsia.
Ukraine’s technology minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, says the missile “will be a game changer because we will be able to strike where Russia doesn’t expect it today.”
This is not a rebuild of old Soviet weapons in Ukraine’s possession; instead, it is a new technology developed from scratch. Ukraine says the development took nearly 18 months from start to launch, which is a record-breaking time for a project that began from the ground up.
“The missile has a solid-fuel booster that accelerates it, followed by a jet engine,” reported the Associated Press. This is where the difference lies: the jet engine allows Palianytsia to travel at much higher speeds compared to the long-range drones previously developed by Ukraine.
While propeller drones typically operate at speeds of 100 to 200 km/h, jet drones can reach 400–500 km/h or even 800–900 km/h. Increased speed improves the drone’s ability to evade anti-aircraft fire from machine guns and manually operated missiles, though it won’t necessarily protect against more advanced air defense systems.
Speed also affects the time required to approach the target, reducing the enemy’s response window. For instance, if the enemy detects drones 300 km away, they could have anywhere from three hours to just 20 minutes to react, depending on the drone’s speed. This difference is crucial, particularly when it comes to moving combat aircraft out of harm’s way.
No one outside of Ukraine knows how many Palianytsia drone missiles the country is capable of producing each month. However, whatever the current number may be, they are likely doing everything possible to increase production.
Their primary targets will be the 250 Russian military installations, including airfields, that the ISW (Institute for the Study of War) says fall within the range of U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles. Disrupting these Russian military assets scattered around Ukraine would severely impair Russian logistics.
Fighter jets would have to travel from farther away, exposing them to surveillance for longer periods and reducing their effectiveness. Russians would be forced to relocate large ammo and fuel depots to safer distances, which means establishing more distributed and smaller depots in Russian territory closer to the warzone. This would make it easier for Ukraine to launch localized counterattacks.
By targeting a specific area, Ukraine can destroy ammo and fuel depots in that sector. Russia would need more time to resupply, creating an opportunity for Ukraine to launch a concentrated attack.
The extended range and capabilities of this weapon offer not only significant operational advantages for the military but also a political benefit for Ukraine. The missile has now brought Moscow within range of Kyiv. The straight-line distance from the Ukrainian border to Moscow is less than 700 km.
Moscow remains one of the most heavily protected areas in all of Russia, with air defense systems ranging from long-range to short-range units deployed throughout the city. Russia has positioned various types of air defense units to keep the city safe.
However, it’s impossible to protect every single military target in and around Moscow. Ukraine could simply test the effectiveness of these air defense systems using its drones and a few missiles, identify gaps, and choose military targets in the area as the location to respond to any attack the Kremlin launches on Kyiv.
Putin may have to consider moving his operations out of Moscow and possibly further east. But what would happen if he does that? What if he decides to forgo the Kremlin and instead operates from Vladivostok, located in the far east near Japan?
Not an easy decision, right?
The safety of the elite cabal that protects the regime is now under serious question. Can the air defense hold? Do we need shelters around Moscow? What if Ukraine starts stockpiling missiles like we do, amasses a significant number, and launches a barrage of 100 missiles and 100 drones in one go? Can we hold? What if one or two missiles get through? What if we do too much and Ukraine responds in kind?
The political residents of Moscow now have to confront the same psychological fears that the residents of Kyiv face every day.
Depending on how Ukraine chooses to use this missile, it has the potential to further undermine Putin’s standing within Russia.
That is the political impact of the missile.
With power comes responsibility
Ukraine’s combat power is ramping up at a steady pace, and it’s easy to worry about how they might use this newfound strength.
So far, I haven’t seen them embrace anything malicious.
- They have treated the Russians who chose to stay in Kursk Oblast under their occupation very well.
- They treat Russian prisoners of war very different than Moscow.
- They possess long-range drones capable of taking out Russia’s electrical grid and plunging towns on its eastern border into darkness, but they haven’t done so.
- They could have decimated numerous Russian refineries with their weapons, but they haven’t.
One of the reasons Russia is still struggling to unleash its full fury on Ukraine’s energy grid is Ukraine’s long-range drones. Russia has the capability — they have hundreds of missiles in storage, a good number of long-range bombers and the Black sea fleet to launch them.
I don’t think the largest missile and drone attack Russia launched against Ukraine his week is their max potential. They have the capacity to do many times more. But they are holding back, fearing a Ukrainian response against their refineries.
Now, with this new weapon, far more formidable than drones, Russia has even more to worry about. By adding this significant deterrent to its arsenal, Ukraine has not only strengthened its own defense but also enhanced the security of the Baltic nations.
The maintenance of peace depends upon the accumulation of deterrents against the aggressor- Winston Churchill
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