Is That You, Mr. Pavel? Ukraine Shells Russian Forces at Record Levels in 2024
No one has any idea what Ukraine is up to.
In an interview with CNN, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Ukraine’s artillery shell firing rate has significantly improved. They are firing one shell for every 2 to 2.5 shells fired by Russia. That is far better than the single shell they fired in response to the 10 shells fired by Russia throughout most of 2024.
“Wait… What did he just say?” was my initial reaction. Much of what has happened on the ground, and continues to happen today, makes little sense as Ukraine has somehow managed to plug the information leaks that were reaching Russia. At times, they even deliberately misled the enemy by saying and doing things completely contrary to the reality.
For months, Ukraine created the impression that Russia would launch a summer offensive in the Sumy direction. They began constructing trenches and digging the ground, laying the groundwork for their actual incursion into Kursk. They further confused the situation by repeatedly requesting equipment for nearly ten to twelve brigades from the Western world.
Meanwhile, Ukraine was taking heavy losses in the Pokrovsk direction. Many Western media reports suggested that the artillery shelling rate in Pokrovsk was heavily skewed in favor of the Russians, with a ratio of ten to one. The Kremlin, lulled into thinking Ukraine was weak, let its guard down in Kursk and continued to push aggressively towards Pokrovsk.
The result of this strategic manipulation is well-known: Ukraine has stalled Russian momentum in Pokrovsk while holding over 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory in Kursk and has at least five fully equipped but uncommitted brigades.
Every day, Russian military bloggers propose new Ukrainian counterattack plans. One suggested Ukraine might launch an audacious amphibious landing in Crimea with thousands of boats. Another speculated an attack in the Pokrovsk direction, while another predicted a blitzkrieg in Kursk, spilling over into Belgorod.
I thought to myself, “That’s one too many theories to keep track of.” Each had its own merit, leaving the enemy in a state of mild panic, uncertain of where the next strike might come.
For a brief moment, I wondered why the Ukrainian commander-in-chief allowed this information to reach the public. Then I realized that the Russians, of all people, would already know. They are the ones on the receiving end of the artillery shells fired by Ukraine. So, there’s no point in keeping a secret that the enemy is already aware of.
How Ukraine acquired these shells remains a mystery to the Western media, but a closer look reveals the answer was right in front of us. Ukraine likely stockpiled some over the past few months. The over one million artillery shells procured by the Czech Republic for Ukraine began arriving in batches at the end of June.
Another aspect that might have gone unnoticed is the rising production numbers of the German manufacturer Rheinmetall.
The annual production rate is expected to reach 700,000 by the end of this year, which amounts to nearly 2,000 shells per day. It’s not just Germany — Europe’s overall production rate has also increased significantly over the past year.
On January 24, we had a production capacity of one million shells per year. By the end of the year, we will have a production capacity of 1.7 million shells per year, and by 2025 we should reach 2.5 million shells per year. The production capacity is comparable to that of Russia, Thierry Breton, EU Commissioner said in June 2024.
No matter how we look at it, reliable daily shell production has surpassed 3,000 shells per day. There is steady daily production, and in addition, there is the large-scale procurement coming from the Czech-led initiative. I am not including the U.S. numbers here, as they are not dependable on any consistent level. If they provide support, it’s a bonus; if not, so be it.
Ukraine clearly has the capacity to respond with 4,000 shells per day. This likely explains why Syrski stated that Ukraine is firing one shell for every 2 to 2.5 shells fired by Russia.
Russia fires 10,000 shells per day, while Ukraine responds with 4,000 to 5,000 shells. The high precision of Western artillery systems will further enhance Ukraine’s capability. They have French-supplied CAESAR, and their own 2S22 Bohdana. Soon, they will receive German-made RCH 155s.
All of these systems are far superior to Russia’s. Production of CAESAR units is already at 12 per month, and Ukraine is building 10 Bohdana units monthly. I believe Germany has the capacity to produce single-digit RCH 155s each month. Combined, European artillery production is already over 25 units per month and growing.
The bottom line is that Ukraine’s shell shortage is over. If Russia is considering taking out launchers to curb Ukraine’s growing artillery power, it won’t succeed, as Ukraine can easily add 25 launchers each month.
How will this impact the war?
In a huge way.
Ukraine first needs to achieve parity with Russia’s artillery firing rate, and they are very close. Thanks to the high-precision systems, they don’t need to match Russian numbers one-to-one. A ratio of one to two will be sufficient. Reaching parity will significantly reduce the stress on Ukrainian troops. Counter-battery fire will become more effective, forcing the Russians to pay a much higher price than before. This will save lives and shift the pressure back onto the Russians.
Putin has purchased a large number of artillery shells from North Korea, with reports indicating that North Korea is running three shifts to produce weapons for him. However, it’s not an easy process — it will take time to see any real benefits. Moreover, those shells cannot compare to Western-made ones in terms of quality, form, or value.
Take the German-made RCH 155s, for example. These artillery launchers can travel at speeds of up to 100 km/h, fire eight shells per minute, and carry 30 shells per trip. They not only hit targets up to 70 km away but do so with pinpoint precision. Mobility and precision are two things that Russia and North Korea will never be able to match.
RCH 155s have yet to be introduced on the battlefield, but Ukraine’s ability to control the artillery battle will steadily and sharply increase over the coming months.
Please note that I am intentionally excluding U.S. support for Ukraine in my projections. This approach makes my assessments more conservative and dependable, though they may be underestimates. By minimizing reliance on U.S. aid, the risk in these projections is reduced.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 272 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
