It is not Avdiivka. It is the Information Value of Avdiivka
Russia is facing a significant challenge in maintaining a steady flow of recruits to its military centers and subsequently to the front lines. Yesterday, the Institute for the Study of War reported that nearly 700 migrants were detained at a warehouse in Moscow, with some receiving conscription notices to join the conflict under Putin’s command.
Economically disadvantaged groups, lacking the courage to confront the Kremlin, are being targeted — an ideal choice for forced conscription. None of the upper-middle-class Russians residing in Moscow, nor the educated Russians with blue-collar jobs, will express fear for these migrants. For the few who do shed tears, it’s safer to weep within the security of their own four walls than to openly cry in the streets.
Thus, targeting migrants, ethnic minorities, and other underrepresented, marginalized communities within Russia’s confines proved to be a strategic choice. Russia will continue to recruit from these groups until there’s no one else left to conscript. If there’s a perception that they can act with impunity, they will not hesitate to do so. In this context, adherence to a moral compass is deemed irrelevant by the Russian high command.
The recent influx of ammunition from North Korea and Iran has afforded the Russian military additional operational leeway in Ukraine. A triumph in Avdiivka could bolster the MAGA faction in the U.S. Congress, which is currently impeding aid to Ukraine, potentially amounting to about 60 billion dollars. Ukraine now possesses access to a vast array of sophisticated weapons from NATO’s arsenal. Their current challenge lies more in the quantity of these arms rather than their quality.
Financial resources could largely resolve this issue. Essentially, given that the quality of Ukraine’s weaponry is nearing its maximum potential, the quantity of arms becomes the crucial differentiator moving forward. Should Ukraine receive the 60 billion dollar aid package from the United States, it would significantly undermine President Putin’s position.