It’s Not Just Ukraine Aid We Need to Worry About, It’s the Heart
It has been almost two years.
Neither Ukraine has won nor Ukraine has lost.
We just keep moving from one month to the next, hoping that by the time the next season rolls in we will have an outcome. But our wishes have not materialized, and the seasons continue to change. Ukraine has been tied up due to “self-imposed limitations on the technologies the West has been willing to provide Ukraine” , while Russia is not able to utilize all its powers because of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “unwillingness” so far to commit Russia fully to this war.
“If the West cuts aid, Russia will win”, the Institute for the Study of war chimed in last week. That is true.
I believe if that scenario unfolds, we might find ourselves in an extended period of guerilla warfare, reminiscent of a second Afghanistan for the Russian military. However, I don’t foresee this happening, as the West shows no indication of abandoning Ukraine.
The allies actually comprise a sizable group, encompassing nearly 50 countries that have contributed to Ukraine’s aid in various forms. Meanwhile, Russia receives assistance, both directly and indirectly, from nations like Iran, North Korea, China, India, and a few others
By the end of 2022, the allies, had either given or committed €128 billion for Ukraine. With two more months to go in 2023, that number now stands at €237 billion. The Western world, despite the United States falling off the aid grid due to the partisan problems in the U.S congress has managed to keep the pace it set in 2022.
I expect total aid given to Ukraine in 2023 to be slightly higher than 2022.
So, if someone suggests that the flow of Western aid to Ukraine has diminished and this will lead to a Russian victory, just offer them a smile and walk away. We performed admirably in 2022, and have maintained that momentum into 2023.
Would we be able to keep it up in 2024?
I think it is fairly reasonable to assume that we will.