Kupiansk, it is…
Will be the most important battle of Winter 2024
In the hierarchy of defensive priorities, Kupyansk takes precedence over Avdiivka for the Ukrainian military. While Ukraine aims to safeguard both towns and prevent Putin from claiming any victories, if forced to make a choice, prioritizing Kupyansk becomes imperative. The strategic significance of Kupiansk outweighs that of Avdiivka, making it a crucial focal point in the current defensive strategy.
Yesterday, the Institute for the Study of War addressed the fast-developing situation in Kupiansk.
- The anticipated Russian 2024 winter-spring offensive effort is underway in the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border area. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated on January 30 that the Russian offensive in Ukraine is currently ongoing and that Russian forces aim to reach the Zherebets River (in the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border area) and the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
- Budanov forecasted that Russian forces would fail to achieve these objectives, however, and would likely be “completely exhausted” by the beginning of the spring. Budanov’s statements are consistent with ISW’s observation that Russian forces have intensified offensive operations along this axis since the beginning of January 2024.
- Russian forces have recently made tactical gains southeast of Kupyansk along the critical P07 Kupyansk-Svatove route near Krokhmalne and appear to be increasing assaults northwest and west of Krokhmalne towards the Oskil River.
- Russian forces will likely be able to secure additional tactical-level gains in the Kupiansk area but are unlikely to be able to translate these tactical gains into wider mechanized maneuvers needed for operationally significant advances that could capture more territory in Kharkiv Oblast and push to the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast administrative borders.
Why Kupiansk?
As noted by the ISW, the Russian military is trying to reach the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donetsk oblast . This objective, in my opinion, is one of the factors considered by the Kremlin. Taking full control of Luhansk and Donetsk helps when Moscow sits for a negotiation with Western peacekeepers.
But the terrain around Kupiansk, especially the access to siverskyi donets river and the town’s proximity to Kharkhiv, the second largest city in Ukraine, weigh heavily on Russian strategists to capture the town.
The Kremlin is well aware of the fact that they will not achieve any large scale territorial victory against Ukraine. They would love to do it, but their track record in 2022 and in 2023 must have made them realize the difficulty in breaking Ukrainian defense.
They would love to have a clear border. It helps their negotiators to dig in their heels when the time for the table comes up. This means getting to the administrative borders of the respective regions wherever possible. Of all the places on the map, it is the section around Kupiansk that makes a lot of strategic sense for Russia to fight for an advance. The town is worth the risk because it can set the Russian’s up in a formidable position when they are ready to invade Ukraine the third time.
The Terrain:
- Ukraine currently holds both the banks of the Siverski Donets river. Their control over the river makes the terrain extremely difficult for the Russian army to navigate. As long as Ukraine holds the river, the Russian army will struggle to get rid of Ukrainian defenders in the region. He who holds the river, will be difficult to dislodge.
2. If Ukraine remains in control of Kupyansk, the next time Russia invades Ukraine, the ability to capture Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine, will be very difficult. You cannot lay siege to a town with the enemy behind.
But, if Russia holds Kupiansk, they will be able to immediately surround Kharkhiv in all four directions. The fall of the city is almost guaranteed the moment it is surrounded in all directions.
Over the past two years, Putin has shifted his focus from liberating Ukrainians from their misery to painting the West as the enemy. It would be a significant error to assume that the Kremlin has abandoned its maximalist objectives. They have unequivocally expressed their intention to persist in advancing westward.
“The problem is not that they are assisting our adversary. They are our adversary. They are using them (Ukrainians )to achieve their goals,” Putin said in a meeting with service members at a Moscow military hospital on January 1, 2024. He added that “it has been like that for centuries.” “Ukraine per se is not our enemy.”
If Ukraine is not the enemy, then why would Putin stop with Ukraine? Why would he stop with a quarter of Ukraine? The West is the enemy, so he will keep going until the West ceases to be his enemy. He is setting the stage to expand his war into Europe and stay in the war mode for as long as possible. He wants the Russians to fear the external and never scrutinize the internal.
The Russian army’s sustained presence in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine owes much to the strategic importance of Crimea. Military bases, warehouses, and air defense assets situated in Crimea have significantly influenced and bolstered Russian operations in the occupied territory. Removing Crimea from the equation would undoubtedly diminish the overall strength of the Russian military in this context.
The capture of Kupiansk by Russian forces may not have a profound impact on its own, but it will undoubtedly facilitate the Russian efforts to secure Kharkiv, making the task considerably more manageable.
What can Ukraine do?
This winter will pose significant challenges, although I don’t foresee it being as severe as the hardships Ukraine faced last winter in 2023. The lack of adequate air-defense systems left Ukraine vulnerable, resulting in frequent power outages, with cities and towns going dark every other week.
Ukrainian utilities were constantly under attack. Ukrainians scrambled to protect their population centers and stave off their energy grid from collapsing. In the four weeks leading up to February 24th, the Russian military launched successive waves of massive attacks.
Ukraine managed to hold the ground, despite overwhelming odds.
Their current major challenge lies in managing their artillery stockpile. The Russians hold the advantage with ammunition, bolstered by their mobilization of sufficient troops to facilitate the rotation of battalions along the frontline.
Russia will continue its massive attacks on Avdiivka, while also increasing the scale of attacks in the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis.
Ukraine must defend both the towns.
They need to defend Avdiivka because a victory will allow Putin to make the case that they can target a town, persist in their strategy and win them. They need to defend Kupiansk because it will make sure that Kharkhiv never falls into the hands of the Russian army.
I believe Ukraine will defend both towns, yet the uncertainty lies in the toll they might have to bear for this defense. The cost, whether in terms of resources, casualties, or strategic concessions, might be huge as the situation unfolds.
