Lock the gains, Chancellor. Lock the gains

As Europe stalls and stockpiles, Merz moves — quietly rewriting the balance of power, one Patriot system at a time.

I made a mistake yesterday.

In outlining the first three steps of the eight-part escalation ladder, I wrote: “France will likely resist.” That was wrong. I failed to account for one critical variable: embarrassment.

Everyone knows France is under severe budget constraints. If they join the European push to acquire Patriot air-defense systems for Ukraine, the optics will be brutal. Merz, who has fought tooth and nail to position Germany as a heavyweight in weapons production and procurement, can casually drop $5 billion into the effort. France, by contrast, would struggle to contribute $500 million — and even then, there’s no guarantee the funds would clear.

Now imagine the headlines:
Europe purchases five Patriot systems. Germany contributes $5 billion. France — $500 million.

It would be a humiliation of continental scale, especially as Europe increasingly leans on France for nuclear protection. So no, France won’t resist. They’ll simply stay out of it.