Momentum Shifts in Ukraine’s Favor
The hunter gets hunted
I think it has been more than a year since the Russians modified their S-300/S-400 air-defense systems to launch missiles into Kharkiv.
“With S-300 certain modifications and adaptations, it is possible to utilize the system to engage ground targets as well. One way to achieve this is by reconfiguring the system’s radar and software algorithms to detect and track ground-based threats instead of aerial ones. By adjusting the parameters and algorithms, the system can be programmed to identify and engage ground targets, such as vehicles or personnel, effectively”, wrote Boyko Nikolov a military blogger.
Last night, the Russians used the S-300 to attack a recreation center in the Chuhuiv district of the Kharkiv region.
The Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office said that “On the night of June 3, the Russian armed forces launched missile attacks on a recreation center in Dachne village of the Chuhuiv district. A fire broke out. A 45-year-old man, who was an internally displaced person from the Donetsk region, was killed. Two people were injured: a 35-year-old woman and a 42-year-old man. The wounded are employees of the recreation center.”
It wasn’t the first time the Russians used the S-300 stationed in Belgorod to shell civilian centers and other locations in the Kharkiv region. However, for the first time, Ukraine had permission to launch counter-battery fire, and they acted promptly. Knowing the location of the S-300, they positioned their U.S.-supplied HIMARS, loaded the coordinates, and fired.
This was all that was left of the S-300 launcher that had ravaged Kharkiv city for a very long time.
This will be the first high-profile hit by HIMARS in the Russian territory of Belgorod Oblast. The S-300 systems cost upwards of $100 million.
Russia’s northern incursion is quickly turning into quicksand for the Russian armed forces. They have moved their troops from other parts of the frontline to this sector. However, despite the additional strength, they haven’t been able to advance, as Ukraine has also moved a significant number of troops to the sector.
You can see the positions of both sides in the image below.
It is clear that the Russian momentum in this sector has stalled, and it is the Ukrainian forces that are advancing slowly, retaking vital positions previously captured by the Russians.
“We stopped the enemy; they are not going any further. Now we will push them back to the border,” announced the Ukrainian General Staff.
It will take some more time for Ukraine to fully evict the Russian troops stationed in two key areas: one around Vovchansk and the other around Morokhovets. This delay is partly because it will be a significant embarrassment for the Russian armed forces, which are desperately seeking a win to negotiate a ceasefire. As a result, they will likely continue to send more troops into the region.
It will be wave after wave of soldiers. I bet my top dollar that Russia will abandon attempts to advance in the Donetsk region and instead pour their resources into the northeastern front. This incursion has already backfired spectacularly on them, and unfortunately, the propaganda state has no choice but to allocate more and more resources to this sector.
It was a good decision by Ukraine to quickly prioritize this sector. Thanks to the strong response mounted by the Ukrainian forces, Russian losses have sharply risen in the last two weeks.
They have lost
- Personnel: 31,420
- Tanks: 345
- Armored Combat Vehicles: 689
- Jets: 8
- S300/S400: 4
I’ve witnessed high levels of destruction many times since the start of this war. One instance that quickly comes to mind is the first two weeks of the October 2023 assault on Avdiivka, when Russia lost a huge amount of resources in the initial waves. However, those losses pale in comparison to what is happening now.
The battlefield dynamics that the Russians witnessed in the waning months of 2023 were completely different from what they are facing today. Ukraine did not have American support back then. They were managing their frontline with drones and grenades, they lacked artillery shells, and they lacked long range ATACMS missiles. They also had no assurance of having enough air-defense missiles to protect their urban centers.
Things have drastically changed today. Ukraine now has all these resources listed above, and they also have permission to target the Russian units stationed inside Belgorod Oblast from where Russian troops are trying to advance in the north east. To add to the Russian army’s challenges, they lack defensive fortifications to hide behind, and they are attempting to defend the two sections they have occupied in the northeast.
How are they going to defend without a defensive line?
How will this Russian army mount mobile defense against an army that was built around mobile defense?
No one truly knows the strengths and weaknesses of a mobile defense better than the Ukranians. The Russians have bitten off more than they can chew. Aside from pouring more and more resources into the sector in hopes of victory, they lack a coherent strategy to deploy against the Ukrainian forces.
Ukraine has begun counter-attacking. It has been a while since I wrote those words. Now, it’s Russia attempting to defend the two axes in the northeast.
Ouch.
They can’t stay.
They can’t leave.
They will add.
They will pay. Not only in the north-east, but in the south as well, especially in Crimea.
It’s been nearly two months since I first wrote about the Siege of Crimea beginning. The Western media has now finally started to acknowledge this reality.
Here’s my prediction for the next month: Russians will lose more resources over the next 30 days than they did in the last 30. They will not advance in the northeast. In an act of desperation, they may be tempted to counter-attack in another sector to draw Ukrainian troops away from Vovchansk and Morokhovets.
The Russians initially thought they could stretch the Ukrainian forces and draw troops from other sections, which they somewhat succeeded in. However, they didn’t anticipate that they would end up scrambling to hold the line themselves. But that’s where they are now.
Ukraine’s ascent has begun.
If only there were enough manpower on the Ukrainian side, I would have suggested they launch a limited counter-attack on the Robotyne sector.
Oh well, how quickly things can change!
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