Member-only story
My Forecast for U.S. Vaccination Record Turned Out Accurate. Here Is My Next One
It ain’t pretty
I forecast the 23 states fully controlled by the Republican party to account for more than 7 out of 10 COVID cases in the United States before the end of this year.
In the last ten months, I had managed to accumulate a spotless forecasting record. Predicted Biden to win the electoral college with 306 votes. Forecasted the Democrats to win both the Senate seats in Georgia and expected the country to vaccinate at least 181 million people.
At least 181.3 million people have received one or both doses of the vaccine in the U.S. — WashingtonPost
I cannot escape the law of averages forever, and I hope my latest forecast be the one that drags the record down. The current trajectory of COVID spread in the United States is unnecessary, completely avoidable, and can potentially save lives.
But the odds of a reversal looks extremely bleak as red-state politicians enabled by right-wing talk show hosts continue their anti-vax, anti-mask messaging to protect a failing brand of politics.
