Pass the No Radical Infection Act
Here is why the GOP Will Lose the Debt Ceiling Battle
Leveraging the debt ceiling has never worked in the past. Just because there is a gang of conservatives who think it is a brilliant power brokering idea does not mean it is.
It did not help the Republicans in 1995. It did not help them in 2011. It will not help them in 2023.
Inflation and worsening economic perception, helped the Republicans paint Biden as a poor fiscal manager. It worked. Biden’s approval rating is still underwater.
It was a combination of good Republican economic strategy and poor Democratic response. Nevertheless, the red wave failed to materialize due to the poor quality of the Republican candidates and distaste of MAGA among swing voters.
Republicans will lose the economic advantage the have over the democrats when they play with the debt ceiling. As soon as the nation breaches the debt limit, inflation will soar, interest rates will rise, U.S. credit ratings will be downgraded, the stock market will plunge, many 401ks will vanish, millions of Americans will lose their jobs. The congress would have triggered a recession.
Republicans will claim sole ownership of the ensuing economic disaster.
Democrats have already begun to push the House Republican party into the bad economic corner, and they won’t come out of it until they stop arguing over the debt ceiling.
In 2024, Biden will contrast his administration’s sanity with MAGA’s insanity. It will be extremely difficult to dispute that logic. GOP will face the election as an anti-women and anti-economy party.
It is unlikely that the Republican party will heed good advice. Like Democrats, Republicans have their own eccentricities as well. One of them is the debt cieling power play. It has always backfired, but they simply cannot resist it.
There’s too much TV, both national and global, to ignore.
There is a Republican Precedent
The federal government was shut down in 2013 as Ted Cruz launched his presidential campaign. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers were sent home. Billions of dollars were wasted because one man wanted to show off. As a result, Barack Obama won a solid victory over Mitt Romney after losing the midterms by a huge margin.
I have this vague feeling that Ted Cruz was more than happy with the outcome. Obama may have won the Presidency, but Ted Cruz became well known across the country. He wasn’t just another senator from Texas. He was a fiscal conservative who was ready to take difficult decisions. It was a direct path for him to throw his hat into the 2016 GOP Presidential nomination ring.
This is exactly how many in the Republican party behave.
If there is an opportunity to get ahead there are plenty of Republicans who will gladly do so. George Santos lied and lied and lied. But Speaker Kevin McCarthy will not ask him to resign because the GOP has a wafer thin majority in the House.
Country over party is already dead.
Imagine Ted Cruz asking ultra-conservative House members to lift the debt ceiling for the sake of the country. The crazy caucus will erupt in laughter.
The country could easily plunge into an unprecedented crisis unless some sane heads prevail and convince some congressional Republicans to vote with the Democrats. The power of the speaker has been completely diluted.
The deal Kevin McCarthy made with the devils is going to hurt.
It is going to hurt everyone.
In his bid to become speaker of the House, Rep. Kevin McCarthy agreed to a number of concessions to secure the support of Republicans who originally opposed him. One was a rule change to allow just a single member to try to force him from office.
Under the new House rules passed Monday, only one member of Congress — Democrat or Republican — is needed to bring a “motion to vacate,” which forces a vote on removing the speaker. That would need only a simple majority of the House to pass to oust McCarthy.
One House member can kick Kevin McCarthy out of his job.
How is the GOP planning to keep its entire flock together? It took them 15 attempts to elect the speaker of the House. How many attempts will they need to agree on the debt limit?
If the Republicans push the country into default by haggling over Medicare or Social Security, pollsters and pundits can announce their early retirement for 2024. Biden will be reelected, Democrats will win a solid Senate majority, and the House speakership will decisively shift to the Democrats in 2024.
It will be trifecta. Democrats will take control of the Presidency, Senate and the House. The results of the 2024 election will be a mandate to stop the MAGA crazies from playing loony tunes on the national stage.
“Every indication is that absent radical budget cuts and slashing some of the programs that Biden championed, the right wing of the House Republican caucus is not going to go along,” said one Biden economic adviser. “McCarthy has not yet demonstrated that he can get the maximalists in his party to agree to anything other than the maximal position.”
The Extraordinary Moves
When will the United States breach the debt limit?
Unless Congress comes up with a deal by early June to raise the debt limit, which was capped at $31.4 trillion in late 2021, Treasury Secretary Ms. Yellen’s ability to delay a default will be exhausted.
There are some over the top to cringeworthy proposals in the mix to stave off the default
The discharge petition: An extremely long procedural route. Requires proper planning but looks like a plan that could actually work.
This how it works: A bill to increase the debt limit is kept before a committee for 30 legislative days. If the bill can get a simple majority, the support of 2018 House members, it will automatically trigger a House vote in seven days.
The Coin: This has been discussed quite furiously during the past shutdowns. Treasury has the power to mint commemorative platinum coins of any denomination. Mint a trillion dollar coin and avert a default.
The 14th Amendment: Section 4 of the 14th Amendment, says: “The validity of the public debt of the United States … shall not be questioned.”
Just say the congress has to pay and be done with it. Legal scholars are divided, which means this validity of this option will be tested in the Supreme Court. Too much uncertainty.
Debt prioritization: In order to stay below the limit and avoid default, the Treasury simply decides which bills to pay and which ones to default. I really don’t understand why some people say this can be done, because it is liable to produce the same effect as a full-blown default. The credit rating of the United States must be downgraded. Stock markets will plunge. Recession will be imminent.
All these gimmicks sound great. They may even be entertaining.
But the risks they pose are much greater than the benefits they could bring. The best path forward would be to find a way to get 218 signatures and clear the debt limit. The next democratic government should intervene and remove the option for one radical to force the country into default.
Did Ted Cruz trigger the shutdown in 2013 because he so badly wanted to save the country from the Affordable Care Act?
Really?….. Then what did he do when his party had full control of Washington.,D.C for two full years under Donald Trump.
If he can do it, then what is going to stop one person out of the 222 congressional House Republicans to do the same?
It is reasonable to expect the worst possible outcome.
Democratic leaders must formulate a contingency plan. Negotiating with radicals is not an option, but no second can be wasted finding the additional six votes to prevent the economy from plunging into a tailspin. The Dems must find a way to escape this year, and when they take control of Washington, D.C., they must figure out how to halt the madness forever.
Better yet, they should pass a law called No Radical Infection Act and remove the congressional power to stop payments on bills that itself approved.
Sounds stupid isn't it. But that is exactly what the debt ceiling is all about. Congress refusing pay for things it authorized to spend.
