Path to Peace: Not an Inch of Donbas

Ukraine has no other option

The very reasons that make the Donbas region invaluable to the Kremlin are the same reasons why Ukraine — and the world — cannot afford to let it fall into Russian hands.

In 2013, Ukraine exported $4.6 billion worth of minerals globally. By 2016, this figure had dropped to $2.2 billion. What happened between 2013 and 2016?

Vladimir Putin’s hand reached deep into Ukraine’s resource-rich Donbas.

In April 2014, Russian-backed militants captured towns in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, proclaiming the creation of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) as independent states. This event sparked the start of the Donbas war.

Donbas is no ordinary battleground.

About 80% of Ukraine’s oil, natural gas, and coal reserves are located in the Dnieper-Donetsk region — precisely where Russia has focused its military operations. Ukraine is estimated to have one of the largest natural gas deposits in Europe, with 1.2 trillion cubic meters of proven reserves and potentially as much as 5.5 trillion cubic meters. Much of these resources lie in the war zone, including the offshore Black Sea region.

Lithium, one of the world’s most sought-after minerals, is another prize Russia has its eyes on. Two of Ukraine’s four known lithium deposits — Kruta Balka in the Zaporizhzhia region and Shevchenko in Donetsk — are in Russian-occupied or contested areas. The Kruta Balka site has been under occupation since 2022, while the Shevchenko deposit sits just kilometers from the front lines.

Moreover, 80% of Ukraine’s coal, including all of its anthracite — high-energy black coal — is under Russian control. This is no coincidence; it is a deliberate strategy to cripple Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and economy.

The Kremlin’s Intentions Laid Bare

Russian leaders have made no effort to hide their intentions. Recently, Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president and now a prominent Kremlin figure, laid it out bluntly. He pointed to the immense value of Ukraine’s natural resource base, estimated at $14.8 trillion.

Of this, $7.3 trillion comes from the Luhansk and Donetsk regions alone, meaning that nearly half of Ukraine’s wealth lies in the Donbas. When you include Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, Medvedev boasted that Russia controls 63% of Ukraine’s coal deposits, 42% of its metal deposits, and 33% of its rare earth and other critical minerals, including lithium.

What we are witnessing today is nothing less than modern-day robbery by an army from a nation that holds a seat on the UN Security Council.

“Russia has a certain understanding that the shortage of resources caused by the climate crisis will make it one of the key players in future in terms of energy provision, food- and water supply chains,” Olivia Lazard, Carnegie Europe think tank told DW.

“We are seeing now with the abandoned grain deal that Russia is taking the food security hostage to its political ambitions. Natural resources are extending Russia’s control basis countering the EU, countering NATO,” she added.

Why Ukraine Must Defend Donbas and Southern Ukraine

Allowing Russia to seize the Donbas and southern Ukraine would have devastating consequences for both Ukraine and Europe:

1. Loss of Strategic Depth: If Ukraine loses Donbas and the southern regions, it will lose Crimea forever, and in time, access to the Black Sea. Ukraine would become a landlocked country, effectively a rump state sandwiched between an expanded Russia and Europe. This would severely limit Ukraine’s ability to defend itself in the future, making it vulnerable to further Russian aggression.
2. Threat to Europe: With control of the Black Sea, Russian naval forces would pose a much greater threat to mainland Europe. Russia wouldn’t just gain a foothold in Ukraine — it would be knocking on Europe’s door. Losing the Donbas would not only strip Ukraine of strategic depth, but it would also erode Europe’s buffer against Russian influence and military power.
3. Economic Devastation: A loss of Donbas would mean Ukraine forfeiting $7 trillion worth of resources to Russia. For Ukraine, this would be the equivalent of a business owner being forced to sell everything to a mafia boss for nothing. It’s not just a financial loss; it’s a surrender of economic sovereignty.

A Recipe for Global Instability

Putin has already weaponized energy supplies to pressure Europe in 2022, and somehow the world managed to cope. He ordered Gazprom to stop gas supplies to Germany, a country that was importing nearly 55% of its gas from Russia.

On June 16, 2022, European benchmark natural gas prices surged by approximately 30% following Gazprom's decision to cut gas flow through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to just 40% of its capacity, significantly reducing supplies to Germany. Two months later, on September 2, 2022, Russia suspended the supply of gas indefinitely through Nord Stream 1.

Gazrpom released an ad right before the 2022 winter warning Europe will freeze and they will be eating hamsters during the winter. Germans scraped, scrambled and scratched their way out of trouble in 2022. After weaponizing energy supplies, Putin turned his sights on weaponizing global food supply by blocking Ukraine from exporting food products to the world.

Russia’s naval blockade of Ukraine’s ports caused a sharp rise in global food prices, exacerbating inflation that was already high due to the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Food Price Index hit its highest levels on record in the first half of 2022.

Wheat prices surged by over 50%, reaching a 14-year high at one point. Prices for corn and other grains also skyrocketed. This was a devastating blow to countries dependent on imports, especially in the Middle East, Africa, and parts of Asia.

The emperor didn’t simply block Ukraine’s maritime trade routes, he ordered his army to fire multi-million dollar missiles into Ukrainian silos holding grains. In July 2023, over a span of seven days, the Czar destroyed more than 60,000 tons of Ukranian grains.

He destroyed hundreds of thousands of Ukranian grains and he is still not done yet.

The escape hatch opened up only after Ukraine punched Russia’s Black Sea Fleet into a corner and opened up its maritime trade route to the world.

If Russia seizes control of the Donbas, Putin will not only have energy and grain to use as weapons in the future, but he’ll also gain access to valuable minerals.

Imagine the leverage Putin would hold: Europe and the world would face not just energy crises, but disruptions to food and critical minerals. The Western world, already divided on how to deal with Putin, might turn to appeasement again. And each act of appeasement would only make him stronger while weakening Europe and the United States.

Losing Donbas won’t just harm Ukraine — it will jeopardize global stability. With control of energy, food, and minerals, Putin could threaten to grind the global economy to a halt. If the world caves in again, we may not be so lucky next time. Putin, armed with economic power and military might, could set his sights on the Baltics or other vulnerable regions. And with every new territory he seizes, his grip on the global economy tightens.

Already, 41% of Russia’s 2025 budget is earmarked for national security and defense — essentially, for war. Nearly half of every ruble Russia earns is being funneled into its military.

The Cost of Appeasement

As the world stands by, hoping to avoid direct confrontation, it risks being fed to the crocodile, as Churchill warned. The problem with feeding your neighbors to the crocodile is that one day, it will come for you. If we allow Putin to tighten his grip on Donbas and southern Ukraine, the repercussions will be felt far beyond Ukraine’s borders.

The stakes could not be higher. This is not just about land; it’s about the future balance of power in Europe, control of vital resources, and the security of the global economy. Ukraine cannot afford to lose Donbas, and the world cannot afford to let it happen.

This story is part of a series I’m writing on the path to peace in Ukraine. It’s crucial to understand what’s at stake and how we can approach negotiations when Putin’s army yields. That moment is closer than we think.

1. As Ukraine inches closer to victory, expect misinformation on steroids.
2. Path to Peace: Not an Inch of Donbas

Thanks for reading. The war is getting closer to the end. Now, more than ever, it’s crucial to make critical information about Ukraine accessible. That’s why I’ve made 300 stories available to the public in 2024, inlcuding this one.