Polls are jumping around: Why I am not at all worried about Wisconsin and Michigan.

We can’t simply keep looking at the polls, we need a lot more than a single poll to understand what is going on. Let us cut through the Michigan and Wisconsin numbers.

The number you see above, 74%, represents the voter turnout rate for the 2020 Presidential election in Michigan. This is a substantial 8% higher than the national average for that year.

From MAP a non-profit, non-partisan thinktank

Of the 13 states with above-average voter turnout, 11 are states that regularly vote for Democrats. There are several reasons for this, but two key factors significantly drive the higher turnout rates:

1. Voting is made more convenient for voters.
2. These states have a higher proportion of college-educated voters.

The national average for educational attainment, currently at 53.7%, is largely influenced by Democrat-run states. In fact, the top ten states in terms of educational attainment are all Democratic-leaning. The entire top ten list includes D.C., Massachusetts, Maryland, Vermont, Colorado, New Jersey, Connecticut, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Washington. These blue states help elevate the national average.

Both Michigan and Wisconsin slightly trail the national average for educational attainment, by around 2 to 3 percentage points. These states also have a sizable white population:

• Michigan: 75%
• Wisconsin: 81%

This is one of the main reasons these two states remain competitive battlegrounds. There are enough white voters and voters without a college degree to attract Republican interest, while the presence of college-educated voters and women makes them appealing to Democrats. The latter group tends to have higher voter turnout, which often helps push Democrats over the finish line.

In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump lost Michigan by approximately 154,000 votes and Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes. In that cycle…