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President Biden Snatches the Polling Lead from Trump as the Center Continues to Flee the GOP
We are only at the early stages of this trend. There is long way to go from here.
I expected the polling lead between Biden and Trump to narrow the gap in April, with Biden pulling into a small lead in May. It looks like I was bitten by the time lag bug. Biden closed the gap with Trump in March and pulled into a small lead in April.
The NPR/Marist poll released today shows President Biden pulling ahead of Donald Trump by three points. A three-point lead in the national poll comes after being underwater for a very long time. What do you think happened?
One major factor that is pushing Biden forward is his continued gains with suburban voters.
- April poll: Biden 58–41%
- March poll: Biden 50–48%
- January poll: Biden 49–48%
The second factor fueling Biden’s rise is independent voters who were somewhat ambivalent about their support for Biden, likely due to uncertainty about who he would be running against. They are slowly…
