President Macron’s Biggest Challenge will pay him a visit in May
I remain confident though….
Looking back at the events that unfolded in Europe since February 17th, I am starting to wonder if I really wanted French President Emmanuel Macron to succeed or fail. Because reflexively, every time I felt like there was a problem, I was not thinking about how he would solve it, but instead, I subconsciously searched for ways in which he might fail.
When he started talking about troops in Ukraine, I thought he was going to be tripped by the right-wing chat boxes in France. But President Macron was ready. He framed support for Ukraine as a choice between victory and defeat, between leadership and surrender. He used it to paint the opposition as the ones who want Russia to win and the French to lose.
When he went sharply after the German administration, over its fears on helping Ukraine achieve an outright victory, I thought he would never let this feud die down, making the coalition difficult to manage. Instead, within days, he met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Berlin, reviving the Weimar Triangle between Germany, France, and Poland. A lot of important decisions were made during the meeting.
It’s like he keeps doing the right things, and I’m just sitting here waiting for something to go wrong. Perhaps I haven’t fully dispelled the notion that Macron is a sideline player in the Ukraine issue, a belief that has been ingrained in me for more than two years.
Macron’s biggest geopolitical test will be in May when Chinese Premier Xi Jinping is expected to visit France. Of course, when two big leaders meet, many things will be discussed. But one big elephant has already walked into the room.
Officials told POLITICO recently that China is trying to persuade Europe to let Russia sit at the table for future peace talks, potentially in Switzerland — or Beijing will boycott such meetings.
That message was amplified, they say, during Chinese special envoy Li Hui’s European tour earlier this month to discuss the future of Ukraine. On the public record, the Chinese foreign ministry said Li vowed “support [for] the timely convening of a peace conference with equal participation of all parties.”
Under Macron’s leadership, Europe has traversed a long distance in the last few weeks. Macron himself has stated that he is open to negotiations provided Putin is willing to walk the talk. However, he also confirmed that he will not allow Ukraine to be defeated and, if necessary, he is open to sending French soldiers to Ukraine.
Whether China considered these changes before urging Europe to prematurely initiate the peace process remains to be seen. However, it is becoming evident that China is, in some way, attempting to bring about an end to the war. Putin will not cease the war without acquiring territorial gains to showcase as victories. So, what options does China have? Persuading Europe to withdraw its support? It’s a possibility.
So, Macron does have a lot on his plate. He foremost priority would be to make sure that China never gets involved in the war.
What does China want?
China does not want Putin to be ousted from power and replaced by a ruler sympathetic to the democratic West. It does not want Russia to collapse and break into multiple pieces, creating numerous smaller trouble spots along their 2,615-mile border.
On the other hand, they also do not want to lose their access to the European market, especially when the Chinese economy is going through a prolonged period of unease. They have taken on a lot of debt, and the real estate market has been threatening to unravel for a very long time.
Not a lot of great cards, but not a lot of great solutions either.
In my opinion, they will be more than happy if Europe pushes Ukraine to give up some land, gives Putin a victory, and they all live happily ever after. The last scenario, of course, they know will not happen. But they are going to give it a shot because continuing in the current direction is not a great option for them.
They are caught between a rock and a hard place. They cannot fully support the Western coalition with all their heart, and neither can they afford to allow the Russia-Iran-North Korea nexus to get out of hand.
I believe they are going to give their version of the peace package a try. And that peace package will more or less lean towards giving Putin some version of victory. Europe cannot accept that because accepting that version of peace means bigger and meaner trouble in the future.
Before the war started, Russia had 2.5 million people working in the defense industry. Now they have 3.5 million. Welders and machinists make more money than lawyers and bankers. How is Putin going to change this? Will he just tell them to take a lower salary, or will he just continue the war in some other place?
He himself has no idea. He is just kicking the problems down the road. Europe has no reason to pay a price for Putin’s miscalculations.
What will President Emmanuel Macron do?
Well, he has done some things right from the perspective of the Chinese. His statement that Europe should not follow America’s lead on Taiwan would have been music to their ears. They will be more than happy to see Europe assert its independence from American dependency. So, they should be willing to hear Macron out.
Macron has to ensure that China does not help Putin. Perhaps he could offer them a plan that does not involve ousting Putin from Russia but at the same time makes it very clear that if that were to happen, Putin’s army would be expelled from Ukraine. “Let me handle this, and then I will leave the rest to you,” could be his response.
The meeting between Xi and Macron will be very important because it has the potential to trigger a tectonic shift in global relations. After that is over, Macron may very well have to make a quick trip to Washington, D.C., to ensure he calms down the fraying nerves.
Yea.
Did anyone say playing geopolitics is easy?
It is hard work.
You can’t please everyone, and you can’t keep going around annoying everyone either.
