Putin asked for trouble. West says OK.

Finland takes the lead

Over the years, the Kremlin has perfected the art of breaking Western laws, refusing responsibility, shifting blame, and threatening anyone who dares respond. Russia got away with behaving like a mob because it operated as a single entity, while the West was a fragmented collection of nations.

When KGB agents used nerve agents to kill people on British soil, France chose not to intervene. When Russia’s propaganda machine smeared French President Macron’s wife, the Netherlands stayed silent. When Moldova and other smaller Eastern European nations were bullied by the Kremlin’s gas company, Gazprom, Germany refused to act.

Putin has turned picking off soft Western targets into an art form.

This year, Russian sabotage operations have markedly increased. Any ship leaving a Russian port is now a potential agent of mischief. These vessels drop their anchors, drag them until they rip apart Europe’s undersea infrastructure, and feign innocence. They’ve done this repeatedly throughout the year, with Europe failing to respond to such aggression — until yesterday.

Traditionally, Europe responds to such provocations with statements but no action. That custom ended yesterday. Multiple undersea fiber optic and electricity cables connecting Finland and Estonia were severed. An oil tanker, Eagle S Panamax, registered in the Cook Islands, was found in the vicinity of the damage. Hours later, Finnish authorities boarded the ship and seized it.

Robin Lardot, director of the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation, announced: “From our side, we are investigating grave sabotage. According to our understanding, an anchor from the vessel under investigation caused the damage.”

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and the European Commission issued a joint statement, saying: “We commend the Finnish authorities for their swift action in boarding the suspected vessel.” The word “commend” in Kallas’s statement carried a pointed message: captains of Russia’s shadow fleet now know that continued sabotage on behalf of the Kremlin will lead to swift repercussions.

It also sends a signal to Baltic nations to follow Finland’s lead.

Russia and whoever owns the ship will call this an accident. Well, Europe is so bureaucratic that sometimes their investigations drag on for years, and the poor ship may end up stuck in one of Europe’s ports forever. Eagle S should be the first reckoning for Russian sabotage.

In his desperation to break the Western alliance, Putin may have overplayed his hand. To circumvent Western sanctions, he has deployed a fleet of more than 250 tankers flying various national flags to transport Russian oil globally. These vessels dock at Russian ports, load up on oil, travel without proper insurance, and deliver it to ports worldwide. A network of middlemen buys this oil, mixes it with oil from other countries, and sells it to global markets. This shadowy operation enables the Kremlin to bypass the €60-per-barrel price cap on Russian oil imposed by the West.

The only effective way to enforce the price cap is to relentlessly target this shadow fleet. Most Russian ports capable of loading oil onto ships are located on Russia’s western flank. The Baltic Sea and the Black Sea serve as critical arteries for transporting Russian oil to the world.

The West is now preparing a massive new round of sanctions on Russian energy exports. However, they are unlikely to lower the €60 price cap. Instead, the focus will be on sanctioning the ships in the shadow fleet, their owners, and the financial institutions facilitating their operations.

The United Kingdom has already sanctioned 72 vessels. President Biden is preparing a final, sweeping sanctions package targeting the Russian shadow fleet. The strategy is clear: make the costs of operating these vessels unbearable for their owners. When forced to choose between losing their ships or risking profits from one last trip, most will choose to safeguard their assets.

These sanctions, if focused on the shadow fleet, won’t stop Russian oil from reaching global markets — and they don’t need to. The goal should be to ensure that no Russian oil sold outside of China exceeds the €60 price cap. If this objective is achieved, China will refuse to pay a penny more than €60 per barrel. Beijing won’t pay a premium when no one else is. Given the scale of China’s purchases, if the global average for Russian oil sits at €60, China will likely demand a 20% discount on top of that.

The Baltic nations can take action by citing the recent sabotage of undersea infrastructure as justification to intercept ships traveling in the region. Check their insurance papers and ensure that no vessel departs without proper documentation. Increase patrols. Conduct random inspections and impound vessels when necessary.

As a result, Russian oil will once again trade at the price cap. Thank you, Putin, for cutting undersea cables — this has handed the West a perfect excuse to go after your shadow fleet.

Not that they needed an excuse, but since one exists, the EU should take advantage of it.

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