Putin Defeated. Iran Devastated
There Will Be No Reversal of Fortunes
November 26th to December 8th.
That is 13 days. Maybe 14. That is all it took for the rebels, backed by international partners, to drive Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian dictator supported by Iran and Russia, out of Syria.
It was a confluence of factors that made this unlikely event possible. The world has taken a massive step towards stability and peace.
Let us break this down one by one.
Nobody in the Middle East likes Iran. Not the Saudis. Not the Jordanians. Not the Emirates. Certainly not the Israelis. Years of American policy have contained and constrained the Iranian regime within its borders. For whatever genius reason, the Republican administration led by George Bush toppled Saddam Hussein and turned Iraq into an ungovernable, factional region. The instability changed Iran’s calculus, as out of nowhere, a path to reach the Mediterranean Sea opened up.
It took them more than a decade to build, but multiple land corridors were created by Iran to reach the Mediterranean Sea through Syria. These were the routes through which Iranian weapons flowed into the region daily, supplying Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza. Israel was surrounded by countries destablized by Iran.
Iran trained Hezbollah but also wanted the militant group to make its own money. A proud Muslim nation that would gladly kill any human for talking about God greenlit Hezbollah to manufacture and export drugs all over the world. Syria became the manufacturing hub. Bashar was more than happy to take his cut from the drug trade. Drugs were exported to all Middle Eastern nations except Iran. Billions were made. Weapons kept flowing.
I really love their love for God.
On October 7th, when Hamas militants went on a rampage, they were all drugged and armed. It was Iran’s land corridor to the Mediterranean that made the attack possible. Unless and until those land corridors are cut, you cannot stop weapons from flowing into militant hands. Unless you shut down the land corridor, you will not stop the drug export business.
- Iran’s objective: Control the Middle East. Destroy Israel.
- Key: Land corridors to the Mediterranean.
- Success rate: High.
But Syria did not simply fall from the tree and bounced into Iran’s lap. They did the hard work after the opportunity opened up. It was Putin who opened the door for Iran to the Mediterranean Sea by entering Syria.
Without Putin’s help, Bashar al-Assad’s regime would not have lasted for two years. At one point, Putin had more than 5,000 Russian troops in Syria, primarily stationed at key military bases like the Khmeimim air base and the naval facility at Tartus. These forces included regular military personnel, support units, and mercenaries. There were high-end air-defense systems, including the S-400 and Pantsir. There were also two squadrons of fighter jets and a handful of bombers stationed in the region.
Putin ensured that Western nations could not topple Assad without engaging in a direct conflict with him. Since former U.S. President Barack Obama made it clear he lacked the resolve to challenge him, Putin knew his troops in Syria were the only insurance he needed to keep the Western coalition far from the region.
As Putin cemented his control over Syria, he expanded his Africa destabilization operations. The core objective was to create war zones and force people to flee into Europe. The central Mediterranean route alone accounts for more than 150,000 migrants heading to Europe every year — over 12,000 illegal migrants entering Europe every month for more than a decade.
If you’re wondering what exactly happened in 2015, don’t. That was the year Putin’s air force began bombing Aleppo, Syria.
From there, he escalated his operations. Human suffering is his specialty.
This never-ending migration taxes Europe, complicates governance, and drains resources. Right-wing nationalists have become power centers in Britain, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and many other European nations. Politics became divisive, governance difficult, and people increasingly ready to embrace nativist rhetoric. Putin was probably clapping his hands with glee.
- Objective: Endless migration
- Key: Military presence in Syria
- Success rate: Exceptional
This finally came to an end when Assad was evicted from Syria yesterday. The loss of the land corridor will not stop Iran from exporting terror into the region, but it is going to be extremely difficult to execute now. The loss of the military bases in Syria will make it prohibitively expensive for Putin to continue his destabilization operations in the Middle East and Africa. Money is the one thing he does not have. Putin desperately needs a bailout. Even a ceasefire deal with Ukraine on January 20th won’t change that requirement. It took a roaring U.S. economy two full years to bring down inflation. Russia has entered stagflation.
If the Western world pressures the Russian mercenary operation in Africa, they will withdraw. It is no longer sustainable. Just get Ukrainian special forces to handle the job. That is far easier than spending millions every month to manage the migration crisis.
None of this would have happened without Ukraine stretching Russian resources thin, and full credit must be given to the Syrian rebels for showing patience, tactical brilliance, and an understanding of the political nuances needed to drive Assad and Russian forces out of the country.
The world has taken a huge step towards stability and peace. Rebels have already called on Israel to help them. Turkey, Jordan, and Israel must work together to assist the Syrians in whatever way they can. Europe should help. If the United States wants to contribute, they would be welcome. But please, don’t even bother asking. Please don’t.
Thanks for reading. The war is getting closer to the end. Now, more than ever, it’s crucial to make critical information about Ukraine accessible. That’s why I’ve made 340 stories available to the public in 2024, including this one.
