Putin Is Cornered — But Not for Long. Europe Needs to Act.

Trump’s stance shifted Putin’s calculus — then came the oil shock.

During the November 2024 to January 2025 stretch, Putin’s military recruitment efforts stalled. His replacement rate — the number of soldiers recruited per day weighed against daily casualties — fell below sustainability.

A February 19, 2025 report from the Institute for the Study of War laid it out bluntly: “Russia’s current force generation apparatus appears unable to recruit the manpower that the Russian military needs to sustain Russia’s current rate of offensive operations. Russia’s current reported monthly recruitment rate is either just equal to or just below the quantity needed to replace Russia’s monthly casualty rate one-to-one.”

Yes, this was quickly developing into a strategic headache. In response, Putin scaled back the operational tempo on the battlefield. Daily losses that had exceeded 2,000 on multiple occasions began hovering around 1,200 — sometimes sub-1,500 — through February and March.

At the same time, Donald Trump’s brilliant team of negotiators gave the Kremlin every reason to believe a win was around the corner. They began speaking Putin’s language — literally. Russian state media went on a victory lap after Trump’s envoy, Steve…